Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14578/jkfs.2017.106.1.77

Correlation Analysis between Climatic Factors and Radial Growth and Growth Prediction for Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi in South Korea  

Chung, Junmo (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science)
Kim, Hyunseop (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science)
Kim, Meesook (Department of Forestry, Environment, and Systems, Kookmin University)
Chun, Yongwoo (Department of Forestry, Environment, and Systems, Kookmin University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science / v.106, no.1, 2017 , pp. 77-86 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study was conducted to analyze the relationship among climatic factors and radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi in South Korea. To determine the climate-growth relationship, cluster analysis was applied to group surveyed regions by the climatical similarity, and a dendroclimatological model was developed to predict radial growth for each climate group under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for greenhouse gases. The cluster analysis showed four climatic clusters (Cluster 1~4) from 10 regions for P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. The dendroclimatological model was developed through climatic variables and standardized residual chronology for each climatic cluster of P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. Four climatic variables were used in the models for P. densiflora ($R^2$ values between 0.38 to 0.58). Two to five climatic variables were used in the models for L. kaempferi ($R^2$ values between 0.31 to 0.43). The growth simulations with two RCP climate-change scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for growth prediction. The radial growth of the Cluster 4 of P. densiflora, the mountainous region at high elevation, tend to increase, while those of cluster 2 and 3 of P. densiflora, the region of the hightest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of the Cluster 1 of L. kaempferi the region of the lowest minimum temperature, while that of Cluster 2, the region of the highest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of Cluster 3 of L. kaempferi, the region in the east coast and Cluster 4, the region at high elevation, tends to hold steady. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for predicting changes in radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi caused by climate change.
Keywords
Radial growth; Pinus densiflora; Larix kaempferi; Climate change; RCP scenario; Growth Prediction;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Arabatzis, A.A. and Burkhart, H.E. 1992. An evaluation of sampling methods and model forms for estimating height-diameter relation-ships in loblloly pine plantations. Forest Science 38(1): 192-198.
2 Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. and Reinsel, G.C. 1994. Time series analysis - forecasting and control. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs. New Jersey, U.S.A. pp. 297.
3 Cha, G.S. 1998. Estimation of changes in potential forest area under climate change. Journal of Korean Forest Society 87(3): 358-365.
4 Chun, J.H. 2012. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of Major Tree Species in Korea using Ecological Niche Model. Kookmin University. Seoul, Korea. pp. 190.
5 Chung, J.M., Kim, H.S., Lee, S.T., Lee, K.J., Kim, M.S. and Chun, Y.W. 2015. Correlation analysis and growth prediction between climatic elements and radial growth for Pinus koraiensis. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 17(2): 85-92.   DOI
6 Cook, E.R. and Holmes, R.L. 1986. Users Manual for program ASTAN. University of Arizona. Arizona, U.S.A. pp. 182.
7 Kim, J.U. and Kil, B.S. 1996. Estimation for changes of net primary productivity and potential natural vegetation in the Korean peninsula by the global warming. Journal of Ecology and Environment 19(1): 1-7.
8 Cook, E.R. and Kairiukstis, L.A. 1990. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht, Netherlands. pp. 394.
9 Fritts, H.C. 1976. Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press. New York, U.S.A. pp. 567.
10 IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104.
11 Koo, K.A., Park, W.K. and Kong, W.S. 2001. Dendrochronological analysis of Abies koreana W. at Mt. Halla, Korea: Effects of climate change on the growths. Jounal of Ecology and Environment 24(5): 281-288.
12 Korea Meteorological Administration. 2011. Case studies to understand and take advantage of climate change scenarios. Korea Meteorological Administration. Seoul, Korea. pp. 44.
13 Laroque, C.P. and Smith, D.J. 2005. Predicted short-term radial-growth changes of trees based on past climate on Vancouber Island, British Columbia. Dendrochronologia 22: 163-168.   DOI
14 Speer, J.H. 2010. Fundamentals of tree-ring research. University of Arizona Press. Arizona, U.S.A. pp. 368.
15 Louis, De Grandpre, Tardif, J.C., Hessl, A., Pederson, N., Conciatori, F., Green, T., Oyunsanaa, B. and Baatarbileg, N. 2011. Seasonal shift in the climate responses of Pinus sibirica, Pinus sylvestris, and Larix sibirica trees from semi-arid, north-centrial Mongolia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41(6): 1242-1255.   DOI
16 Seo, J.W. 1999. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Tree-Ring Variations in Pinus densiflora from Mt. Worak, Central Korea, Chungbuk National University Cheongju, Korea. pp. 59.
17 Seo, J.W., Kim, J.S. and Park, W.K. 2000. Analysis of heterogeneous tree-ring growths of Pinus densiflora with various topographical characterisitecs in Mt. Worak using GIS. Journal of Ecology and Environment 23(1): 25-32.
18 Shin, M.Y. 1990. The use of ridge regression of yield prediction models with multicollinearty problems. Journal of Korean Forest Society 79(3): 260-268.
19 Shin, M.Y, Yun, J.W. and Cha, D.S. 1996. Local correlation of tree volume equation for Larix leptolepis by ratio of means estimator. Journal of Korean Forest Society 85(1): 56-65.
20 Spiecker, H. 2002. Tree rings and forest management in Europe. Dendrochronologia 20(1-2): 191-202.   DOI
21 Wigley, T.M.L., Briffa, K.R. and Jones, P.D. 1984. On the average value of correlated time series with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23(2): 201-213.   DOI