• 제목/요약/키워드: Project risk

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확률 통계적 일정 시뮬레이선 - 민감도 분석을 이용한 최종 공사비 예측 (Predicting Construction Project Cost using Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS))

  • 이동은;박찬식
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2005
  • 프로젝트의 일정 네트워크는 선-후행 관계로 정의된 액티 비 티들로 구성되어 있다 액티비티를 완료하는데 소요되는 기간은 다양한 단축-지연 원인들에 의해 임의적이고, 확률-통계적 인 특성을 지닌다. 이러한 특성은 최종공사기간을 불확실하게하며, 재무리스크의 주요인이 된다. 본 연구는 선행 연구에서 개발된 확률-통계적 일정 시뮬레이션 시스템(Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation)을 확장하여 액티비티 기간이 임의적으로 변동함에 따라 최종공사비가 어떻게 거동하는지 추정하는 방법론을 제시한다. 액티비티 기간을 임의의 변수로 취급하였고, 액티비티에 할당된 직접공사비에 공사기간의 단축-지연에 따른 간접비의 증감을 반영하여 최종공사비를 추정하였다. 액티비티 기간의 변동에 따라 의존 변수인 간접비가 변동하는 특성을 고려하여 시뮬레이션 출력값들(최종공사기간들)의 통계적 특성을 정량적으로 분석하여 최종공사비를 추정하였으며, 예비할 필요가 있는 지체보상금의 정도를 정량화하였다. 기존의 결정론적 기법이 불확실성을 내재한 체 지체 보상금의 비율을 주관적으로 적용해 왔던 반면, 본 연구에서 제시된 기법은 확실성과 신뢰도를 가지고 지체보상금의 비율을 책정할 수 있도록 하는 방법론을 제시하고 있다. 하나의 예제 프로젝트가 시뮬레이션을 이용한 정량분석기법을 예시하기위해 사용되었으며, 불확실성을 내포하고 있는 액티비티 기간들이 최종공사비에 미치는 영향을 검증하기위해 시뮬레이션 모의실험을 실행하였다 자동화된 민감도분석 기법을 이용하여 액티비티 기간을 정의하는 확률분포함수의 통계적 위치를 변화시킴에 따라 최종공사기간 및 최종공사비가 어떠한 거동을 나타내는지 확인하였다. 예제로 사용된 표본 프로젝트에 내재되어있는 재무리스크에 대응하기위해 지체보상금을 어느 정도까지 보유할 필요가 있는지를 정량적으로 분석하고, 의사결정을 위해 어떻게 적용될 수 있는지를 소개한다. 본 연구에 제시된 기법은 연구자들 및 현업 종사자들에게 최종공사비 예측에있어서 액티비티 기간 변화의 확률적 영향과 이론적 의미를 밝힘으로 프로젝트 자본계획과 관련된 위기관리에 진보된 예측방법론을 제공한다.

FMECA 기법을 적용한 건설현장 거푸집작업의 통합 안전위험성 평가 및 대응방안 마련 (Integrated Safety Risk Assessment and Response Preparation on Construction Site Formwork Using FMECA Method)

  • 안선주;송상훈
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2012
  • Risk Assessment to list possible safety disasters and their probability and severity is the starting point for effective safety management on construction project site. However, the safety managers in owners, construction supervisors, contractors, and sub-contractors still have difficulties in judging the priorities of safety activities and preparing responses to each potential safety disasters. Therefore, this study aimed to suggest a systematic method in assessing safety risk prior to commencement with the agreement of stakeholders. FMECA(failure mode effects and criticality analysis) was selected as a main assessment tool and it was modified according to the characteristics of construction projects and trades. Each risk is, firstly, evaluated with occurrence probability, possible loss and impacts to projects, and detections, and then risk priority number(RPN) is calculated. Subsequently, the managers of each stakeholder discuss the types, timing, and responsibilities of responses as a group decision-making process.

철도시설물 관리를 위한 리스크 분석기법 적용 방법론 연구 (Development of Risk Analysis Method for Railway Facility Management)

  • 강인석;박서영;윤선미;김현수
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.341-344
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    • 2006
  • Most construction companies recognize the necessity of risk management. The practical application, however, is not easy because of the absence of systematic procedure for risk management and the difficulty in objectification of subjective risk factors. This study suggests a systematic procedure and a web-based analysis system. In the first place for those researches, this study analyzes the present condition of risk management in the railway facility construction industry. Finally, this study defines risk management procedures as preparation, identification, analysis, response and risk analysis method to manage potential risks in the railway construction project.

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소프트웨어 형상관리 기법을 이용한 R&D조직 성과향상 사례연구 (A case study on improving the performance of R&D org. using software configuration method)

  • 김병삼;장병만;김정한
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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    • pp.408-412
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents, with some actual cases of employing clear case, as a R&D project configuration management tool, a new methodology for the evaluation and enhancement of project performance in R&D organization. This methodology enables you to forecast future results of the project with story telling skill, to innovate R&D project execution using the concept of Technology Supply Chain with global R&D human resources, to improve the performance of each development stage based on the voices of customer, and to enhance the quality of output and to minimize risk of project with timely positioning of R&D human resources.

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Tacit Knowledge in Government-led R&D Project Selection

  • Kim, Eun-Hong
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.223-237
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    • 2005
  • This paper explains that tacit knowledge is a critical component for the success of government-led R&D project selection, where rapid and accurate decision making need to be made under lack of information circumstances. It also explores ways to fully exploit the tacit knowledge of experts participating in the Korean government's R&D project selection process. Some of these include: (1) strategic attention from the top officials, (2) forming self-organizing teams, (3) establishing a horizontal and risk-taking culture, (4) encouraging a sense of responsibility in creating and sharing tacit knowledge, and (5) providing a seamless monitoring system and training.

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A Study of Applying Extreme Programming Method in Mobile Game Development Environment

  • Seo, Yeung-Su;Jung, Hun;Park, Hae-Woo;Yu, Chun-Gun;Lee, Jun-Hyuk;Kang, Byung-Wook
    • 한국정보컨버전스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보컨버전스학회 2008년도 International conference on information convergence
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    • pp.59-62
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    • 2008
  • When performing a project, the most important thing is building a result with planned quality within development period. Particularly, if the project is delayed or has no good quality in the case of the mobile game development project which is sensitive to the release time and quality, it is immediately connected to the failure of the project. Extreme Programming is a methodology that divides the development cycle into smaller units for reducing the risk factor of the project in which the development period is important. In this paper, we suggest the Expanded Extreme Programming for mobile game development environment in which the development period and quality are important

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대형공공공사에 J/V(Joint Venture)시스템의 합리적 도입을 통한 건설사업 효율화 전략 (A Strategy of Construction through Rationally Adapting JV(Joint Venture) in Large Public Constructions)

  • 이태식;김용천;박동찬;선우강;김열규
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2001
  • Despite of the introduction some sorts of the contract and the bid method like CM(Construction management) that will be efficient to manage the construction project. Korean agencies limit to control project management to do large public constructions. In the case of Taiwan, THSRC is apply J/V system in the public construction project, they are accomplishing that expend optimal the cost and save the construction time. To success J/V it has two factors, one is risk management and another is sharing information of construction project. Therefore, we will study to introduce J/V system to our construction project.

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성과관리시스템(EVMS) 도입을 위한 원전 건설사업비 관리체계 세분화 방안에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Cost Hierarchical System of Nuclaer Power Plant Construction Project for Introcusting Earned Vaule Management System)

  • 이상현;김우중
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2019년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.230-231
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    • 2019
  • The nuclear power plant construction project is large-scale, has various stakeholders and computer system, and is produced and managed a large amount of information. The domestic nuclear power plant construction project has accumulated data based on many years of experience in the system. It has the competitiveness to suggeest alternatives that meet the requirement of the client in the overseas nuclear power plant project. Earned value management, which integrates schedule and cost, is possible to risk management. It was developed the earned value management system considering the the actual data properties and types of the preceding nuclear power plant construction projects. It will be able to increase the nuclaer power plant export competieiveness. Therefore, it was palned to carry out future stuies so that it be able to complement the measure to integrate cost and schedule in consideration of actual data(quantity of activity, etc.).

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DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONT END PLANNING TOOL FOR SUSTAINABILITY

  • Sang-Hoon Lee;Spencer Howard;Lingguang Song;Kyungrai Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2009
  • The Construction Industry Institute (CII) developed the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI), as a part of their Front End Planning best practices, which helps project managers assess and measure project scope definition risk elements. U.S. Green Building Council are seeing the benefits of sustainable building and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design certification by positively impacting life cycle costs, building marketability, and organizational productivity. However, there have been no efforts to integrate these two planning tools in construction industry. By applying a supplemental tool which combines the PDRI with the LEED rating system, construction industry can develop and implement a tailored instrument that leads to total project success in sustainability. The objective of this research is to assemble a new front end planning mechanism for green buildings by incorporating the current PDRI and LEED systems.

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Quantifying Monetary Value of Float

  • Park, Young-Jun;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.111-113
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    • 2015
  • Floats are used by the parties involved in a construction project. The owner may use float by changing order(s) or by executing risk avoidance plan; the contractor may use it for leveling resources or substituting activities' construction methods to reduce costs. Floats are accepted either just as by-product obtained by critical path method(CPM) scheduling or as asset having significant value. Succinctly, existing studies involved in float value does not consider its' changes on project time domain. It is important to identify float ownership and to quantify its' corresponding values. This paper presents a method that quantifies float value of money that changes over project execution. The method which accurately computes the monetary value of float may contributes to resolve conflicts relative to float ownership and/or delay issues among project participants. It compares the difference between the monetary value of total float - on non-critical path in each and every schedule update. It makes use of critical path method (CPM) and commercial software with which practitioners are already familiar.

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