• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability testing

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Parentage Testing for Thoroughbred Horse by Microsatellite DNA Typing (Microsatellite DNA형 분석을 이용한 더러브렛 말의 친자감정)

  • Cho, G.J.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2004
  • The objective of present study was to ascertain parentage of Thoroughbred(TB) horses in Korea. A total of 2,029 TB horse samples including 993 foal samples for parentage testing were genotyped for nine international minimum standard markers(AHT4, 5, ASB2, HMS3, 6, 7, HTG4, 10, and VHL20). This method consisted of multiplexing PCR procedure, and showed reasonable amplification of all PCR products. Genotyping was performed with an ABI 310 genetic analyzer. The number of alleles per locus varied from 5 to 11 with a mean value of 7.33 in TB. Expected heterozygosity was ranged from 0.544 to 0.837(mean 0.709) and the total exclusion probability of 9 microsatellites loci was 0.9978. Of the 9 markers, ASB2, HMS7 and HTG10 loci have relatively high PIC value(>0.7). All of the 993 foals were qualified by compatibility according to Mendelian fashion in the present DNA typing for parentage testing. These results suggest that the present DNA typing has high potential for parentage verification of TB horses.

Feasibility of Ultrasonic Inspection for Nuclear Grade Graphite (원자력급 흑연의 산화 정도에 따른 초음파특성 변화 및 초음파탐상의 타당성 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Seok;Yoon, Byung-Sik;Jang, Chang-Heui;Lee, Jong-Po
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.436-442
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    • 2008
  • Graphite material has been recognized as a very competitive candidate for reflector, moderator, and structural material for very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Since VHTR is operated up to $900-950^{\circ}C$, small amount of impurity may accelerate the oxidation and degradation of carbon graphite, which results in increased porosity and lowered fracture toughness. In this study, ultrasonic wave propagation properties were investigated for both as-received and degradated material, and the feasibility of ultrasonic testing (UT) was estimated based on the result of ultrasonic property measurements. The ultrasonic properties of carbon graphite were half, more than 5 times, and 1/3 for velocity, attenuation, and signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio respectively. Degradation reduces the ultrasonic velocity slightly by 100 m/s, however the attenuation is about 2 times of as-receive state. The results of probability of detection (POD) estimation based on S/N ratio for side-drilled-hole (SDHs) of which depths were less than 100 mm were merely affected by oxidation and degradation. This result suggests that UT would be reliable method for nondestructive testing of carbon graphite material of which thickness is not over 100 mm. In accordance with the result produced by commercial automated ultrasonic testing (AUT) system, human error of ultrasonic testing is barely expected for the material of which thickness is not over 80 mm.

The Reliability Evaluation of TBN Valve Testing Extension in NPP (원자력발전소 터빈밸브 시험주기 연장시 신뢰도평가)

  • Lim, Hyuk-Soon;Lee, Eun-Chan;Lee, Keun-Sung;Hwang, Seok-Won;Seong, Ki-Yeoul
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.3221-3223
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    • 2007
  • Recently, nuclear power plant companies have been extending the turbine valve test interval to reduce the potential of the reactor trip accompanied with a turbine valve test and to improve the NPP's economy through the reduction of unexpected plant trip or decreased operation. In these regards, the extension of the test interval for turbine valves was reviewed in detail. The effect on the destructive overspeed probability due to the test interval change of turbine valves is evaluated by Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) method. Even though the test interval of turbine valves is changed from 1 month to 3 months, the analysis result shows that the reliability of turbine over speed protection system meets acceptance criteria of 1.0E-4/yr. This result will be used as the technical basis on the extension of the test interval for turbine valves. In this paper, the propriety of the turbine valve test interval extension is explained through the review on the turbine valve test interval status of turbine overspeed protection system, the analysis on the annual turbine missile frequency and the probability evaluation of the destructive overspeed due to the test interval extension.

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Microsatellite DNA Typing Using 16 Markers for Parentage Verification of the Korean Native Horse

  • Cho, G.J.;Cho, B.W.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.750-754
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    • 2004
  • This study was performed for parentage verification of the Korean native horse (KNH). 103 random KNH samples (including 19 foals for parentage testing) were genotyped by using 16 microsatellite markers. The number of alleles per locus varied from 5 to 13 with an average value of 8.56 in the KNH. The observed heterozygosity and the expected heterozygosity ranged 0.398-0.893 (the average value was 0.683) and 0.368-0.871 (the average value was 0.727) in the KNH, respectively. The PIC value and the exclusion probability ranged 0.347-0.853 (the average value was 0.692) and 0.208-0.736, respectively, and the total exclusion probability of 16 microsatellite loci was 0.9999. Of the 16 markers, AHT4, AHT5, ASB2, ASB17, HMS2, HMS3, HTG10, LEX33, TKY321 and VHL20 loci have a relatively high PIC value (>0.7) in the KNH. Of the 19 foals, 5 foals were disqualified by an incompatibility of 4-7 markers according to a Mendelian fashion in the present DNA typing for parentage testing. These results present basic information for developing a system for parentage verification and individual identification in the KNH.

A Study on Judgement of Optimal SPRT for Learning Estimation (학습 평가를 위한 최적의 SPRT 판정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Mi-Ran;Oh, Am-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.1182-1189
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    • 2009
  • A potential advantage of computer-based education is individualized instruction. In this regard, issues regarding how to evaluate individual learners fast and accurately in order to implement customized instruction program and to open education are raised. In this study, we suggest through a simulation study a way to reach an optimal decision by complementing the insufficient point of the way of the decision of the existing SPRT(Sequential Probability Ratio Testing) in which the number of questions in a test decreases while decision on pass or fail is relatively exact. For the purpose, the data of the examinees obtained from actual tests were used in this study and we present that simulation to verify the accuracy of decision and Multilevel SPRT decision standard for initial set point for optimal SPRT decision and evaluate the ground of the same through simulation.

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Evaluation of Software Task Processing Based on Markovian Imperfect Debugging Model and Its Release Policy (마코프 불완전 수리모형에 따른 소프트웨어 업무처리 능력평가 및 출하정책에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, U-Jung;Lee, Chong-Hyung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.891-898
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    • 2010
  • In real software development fields, software is unified by several modules that are developed before the software testing period. For the evaluation of software task processing performance, this paper considers the software imperfect debugging model that is proposed by Lee and Park (2003) and presents the measures of a unified software, such as the completion probability of a task which is completed in a time interval and the expected number of the completed tasks. In addition, we suggest a software release policy that satisfies the required level of the expected perfect debugging, completion probability, and availability.

A Design and Implementation of Reliability Analyzer for Embedded Software using Markov Chain Model and Unit Testing (내장형 소프트웨어 마르코프 체인 모델과 단위 테스트를 이용한 내장형 소프트웨어 신뢰도 분석 도구의 설계와 구현)

  • Kwak, Dong-Gyu;Yoo, Chae-Woo;Choi, Jae-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2011
  • As requirements of embedded system get complicated, the tool for analyzing the reliability of embedded software is being needed. A probabilistic modeling is used as the way of analyzing the reliability of a software and to apply it to embedded software controlling multiple devices. So, it is necessary to specialize that to embedded software. Also, existing reliability analyzers should measure the transition probability of each condition in different ways and doesn't consider reusing the model once used. In this paper, we suggest a reliability analyzer for embedded software using embedded software Markov chin model and a unit testing tool. Embedded software Markov chain model is model specializing Markov chain model which is used for analyzing reliability to an embedded software. And a unit testing tool has host-target structure which is appropriate to development environment of embedded software. This tool can analyze the reliability more easily than existing tool by automatically measuring the transition probability between units for analyzing reliability from the result of unit testing. It can also directly apply the test result updated by unit testing tool by representing software model as a XML oriented document and has the advantage that many developers can access easily using the web oriented interface and SVN store. In this paper, we show reliability analyzing of a example by so doing show usefulness of reliability analyzer.

A Comparative Study on Scientific Reasoning Skills in Korean and the US College Students (한국과 미국 대학생들의 과학적 추론 능력에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Jeon, Woo-Soo;Kwon, Yong-Ju;Lawson, Anton E.
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 1999
  • The present study investigated Korean and the US college students' scientific reasoning skills involving hypothesis-testing skills and tested the hypothesis that hypothesis-testing skills are more advanced ones than other scientific reasoning skills investigated in this study. Seven hundred and seventy-four(774) Korean and five hundred and sixty-eight(568) the US students were sampled in university level. The Test of Scientific Reasoning was used as a scientific reasoning test. The test is consisted of two conservational reasoning, two proportional reasoning, one pendulum, two probability reasoning, two controlling variable, one correlational reasoning, and two hypothesis-testing reasoning tasks. Korean students showed a significant higher score in proportional and probability reasoning tasks than the US students. However, the Korean showed a significant lower score in conservation and correlation reasoning tasks than their American counterparts. Further, Korean and the US college students showed a notably poor performance in hypothesis-testing skills comparing with other scientific reasoning skills, which supported the hypothesis that hypothesis-testing skills are more advanced ones than other scientific reasoning skills. In addition, the Korean showed a severe deficiency in candle-burning task which required the skill that students have to design a scientific test-procedure to test theoretical hypotheses. This study also discussed on the educational implications of the results of the present study.

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A Comparative Study of Simplified Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Plane Failure of Rock Slope (암반사면의 평면파괴해석을 위한 간이 확률론적 해석 비교연구)

  • Kim, Youngmin
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2021
  • Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

Monotone Likelihood Ratio Property of the Poisson Signal with Three Sources of Errors in the Parameter

  • Kim, Joo-Hwan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 1998
  • When a neutral particle beam(NPB) aimed at the object and receive a small number of neutron signals at the detector, it follows approximately Poisson distribution. Under the four assumptions in the presence of errors and uncertainties for the Poisson parameters, an exact probability distribution of neutral particles have been derived. The probability distribution for the neutron signals received by a detector averaged over the three sources of errors is expressed as a four-dimensional integral of certain data. Two of the four integrals can be evaluated analytically and thereby the integral is reduced to a two-dimensional integral. The monotone likelihood ratio(MLR) property of the distribution is proved by using the Cauchy mean value theorem for the univariate distribution and multivariate distribution. Its MLR property can be used to find a criteria for the hypothesis testing problem related to the distribution.

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