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http://dx.doi.org/10.7474/TUS.2021.31.5.360

A Comparative Study of Simplified Probabilistic Analysis Methods for Plane Failure of Rock Slope  

Kim, Youngmin (Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Jeonju University)
Publication Information
Tunnel and Underground Space / v.31, no.5, 2021 , pp. 360-373 More about this Journal
Abstract
Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.
Keywords
Plane failure; Safety factor; Reliability index; Failure probability; Simplified probabilistic analysis;
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