• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of damages

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Weapon-Target Assignment Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 무장 할당)

  • Kwon, Kyoung-Youb;Joh, Joong-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.539-544
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    • 2003
  • The weapon-target assignment problem is solved using a genetic algorithm in this paper. The weapon-target assignment is an optimization problem which minimizes damages from enemy s attack or maximizes the kill probability of targets. Genetic algorithm is applied in this paper since it usually converges to a near global optimal solution. A specific structure of genetic algorithm which is suitable for the weapon-target assignment problem is proposed. A guideline selecting associated parameters is investigated through simulations. Comparition of the proposed method with several traditional optimization techniques for the weapon-target assignment problem shows the validity of the proposed method.

Prediction of Future Sea Surface Temperature around the Korean Peninsular based on Statistical Downscaling (통계적 축소법을 이용한 한반도 인근해역의 미래 표층수온 추정)

  • Ham, Hee-Jung;Kim, Sang-Su;Yoon, Woo-Seok
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.31 no.B
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2011
  • Recently, climate change around the world due to global warming has became an important issue and damages by climate change have a bad effect on human life. Changes of Sea Surface Temperature(SST) is associated with natural disaster such as Typhoon and El Nino. So we predicted daily future SST using Statistical Downscaling Method and CGCM 3.1 A1B scenario. 9 points of around Korea peninsular were selected to predict future SST and built up a regression model using Multiple Linear Regression. CGCM 3.1 was simulated with regression model, and that comparing Probability Density Function, Box-Plot, and statistical data to evaluate suitability of regression models, it was validated that regression models were built up properly.

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Development of Flood Map Using Geographic Information System (GIS기반 홍수예측지도의 개발)

  • Kim Sang-Ho;Kim Han-Joong;Lee Nam-Ho;Kim Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.36-40
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    • 2006
  • The objective of the study is to develop a GIS-based flood map. Hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) is linked with hydrologic model (HEC-HMS) for flood map. Geospatial data processors, HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-GeoRAS, are used for operating HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. HEC-HMS was calibrated and validated at the Hwa-Ong watershed. HEC-HMS was used for calculating runoff from the Hwa-Ong watershed which consisted of Nam-Yang, Ja-An, U-Eun river sub-watersheds, and HEC-RAS was applied and validated for river flow routing at the Hwa-Ong watershed. The simulated results from HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS were reasonably good compared with the observed data. HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS were applied to simulate flooding from probability rainfall at the Hwa-Ong watershed, and the simulated result was used to develop a flood map. Flood map developed in this study will be used for mitigating and predicting the flood damages.

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Probabilistic Study of Surface Subsidence due to the Collapse of Underground Void during Earthquakes (지진에 따른 지하공동의 붕괴로 인한 지표면 함몰에 대한 확률론적 연구)

  • Kim, Young Soo;Lee, Chin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.217-226
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    • 1993
  • This study is related to the surface subsidence due to the collapse of a underground void during earthquakes. The amount of the settlement due to the collapse of a underground void will depend on the depth of the void, the initial condition of unit weight of sand, the size and type of foundation, the strength of earthquake, the size of a void, etc. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the amount of the subsidence, analyse the factors affecting the subsidence, and develop a program determining the probability of the damages to structures in terms of absolute and differential settlement and rotational settlement. On the base of the results obtained in this study, when the depth of a void is constant and the width of the void increases, the change of the subsidence factor due to the angle of internal friction and the actual effective factor of the void become smaller than that due to the unit weight of sand deposits. In the same condition, the probabilities of damages due to the absolute and differential settlement increase, and those due to the rotational settlement decrease.

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Seismic fragility evaluation of arch concrete dams through nonlinear incremental analysis using smeared crack model

  • Moradloo, Javad;Naserasadi, Kiarash;Zamani, Habib
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.6
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    • pp.747-760
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, a methodology for developing fragilities of arch concrete dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards is introduced. Firstly, the probability risk and fragility curves are presented, followed by implementation and representation of the way this method is used. Amirkabir arch concrete dam was subjected to non-linear dynamic analyses. A modified three dimensional rotating smeared crack model was used to take the nonlinear behavior of mass concrete into account. The proposed model considers major characteristics of mass concrete. These characteristics are pre-softening behavior, softening initiation criteria, fracture energy conservation, suitable damping mechanism and strain rate effect. In the present analysis, complete fluid-structure interaction is included to account for appropriate fluid compressibility and absorptive reservoir boundary conditions. In this study, the Amirkabir arch concrete dam is subjected to a set of 8 three-component earthquakes each scaled to 10 increasing intensity levels. Using proposed nonlinear smeared crack model, nonlinear analysis is performed where the structure is subjected to a large set of scaled and un-scaled ground motions and the maximum responses are extracted for each one and plotted. Based on the results, fragility curves were plotted according to various and possible damages indexes. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and incremental nonlinear analysis. Then, fragility curves were constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Two damage indexes were introduced and compared to one another. The results indicate that the dam has a proper stability under earthquake conditions at MCE level. Moreover, displacement damages index is more conservative and impractical in the fragility analysis than tensional damage index.

Earthquake Damage Assessment of Buildings in Urban Area using Disaster Management Platform (재난관리플랫폼을 이용한 도심지 건물군의 지진피해평가)

  • Jang, Sung-Hyun;Kwon, Dong-Hee;Hwang, Chan-Gyu;Choi, Soo-Young;Chey, Min-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2019
  • Because of its physical characteristics, earthquake has a great impact on a wide area in a short time, so it needs a resilience based seismic countermeasures to restore the community function. For this reason, in this study, the seismic damages of urban buildings were assessed stochastically by virtual earthquakes using public data information and disaster management program(Ergo-EQ). A geographical map reflecting geological characteristics of the target area was created with the buildings and topographic data in Dalseo-gu, Daegu City. In addition, an integrated database including building characteristics was modified to be linked with the Ergo-EQ program. The seismic damages for the buildings were evaluated through the exceedance probability of four different damage levels. From the damage results, it can be identified not only the seismic damage of each building, but also the major factors affecting earthquake damage.

Probabilistic Analysis of Blasting Loads and Blast-Induced Rock Mass Responses in Tunnel Excavation (터널발파로 인한 굴착선주변 암반거동의 확률론적 연구)

  • 이인모;박봉기;박채우
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2004
  • The generated blasting pressure wave initiated under decoupled-charge condition is a function of peak blasting pressure, rise time, and wave-shape function. The peak blasting pressure and the rise time are also the function of explosive and rock properties. The probabilistic distributions of explosive and rock properties are derived from the results of their property tests. Since the probabilistic distributions of explosive and rock properties displayed a normal distribution, the peak blasting pressure and the rise time can also be regarded as a normal distribution. Parameter analysis and uncertainty analysis were performed to identify the most influential parameter that affects the peak blasting pressure and the rise time. Even though the explosive properties were found to be the most influential parameters on the peak blasting pressure and the rise time from the parameter analyses, the result of uncertainty analysis showed that rock properties constituted major uncertainties in estimating the peak blasting pressure and the rise time rather than explosive properties. Damage and overbreak of the remaining rock around the excavation line induced by blasting were evaluated by dynamic numerical analysis. A user-subroutine to estimate the rock damage was coded based on the continuum damage mechanics. This subroutine was linked to a commercial program called 'ABAQUS/Explicit'. The results of dynamic numerical analysis showed that the rock damages generated by the initiation of stopping hole were larger than those from the initiation of contour hole. Several methods to minimize those damages were proposed such as relocation of stopping hole, detailed subdivision of rock classification, and so on. It was found that fracture probability criteria and fractured zones could be distinctively identified by applying fuzzy-random probability.

Characteristics Analyses of Timely Rainfall Events Above Probability Precipitation on Each Frequency (빈도별 확률강우량을 초과하는 시간강우사상의 특성 분석)

  • Oh, Tae Suk;Kim, Eun Cheol;Moon, Young-Il;Ahn, Jae Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6B
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    • pp.513-526
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    • 2009
  • The flood control countermeasure establish for reducing of the flood damages. Design frequency usually reflects the current situation of the station, the importance and the design rainfall. Therefore, this study calculated frequency for duration maximum rainfall with the area which happened the flood damages by main heavy rainfall events recently. Also, to analyze for the temporal characteristics of rainfall event exceed by design rainfall, excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event calculated. To grasp the temporal variation, About excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event have analyzed by change and trend test. Also, rainfall observatory did grouping by cluster analysis using position of rainfall observatory and characteristic timely rainfall. For the grouping rainfall observatory by the cluster analysis calculated average of excess rainfall and excess frequency and excess rainfall per event. To compare for the temporal characteristics, the change and trend test had analyzed about excess rainfall, excess frequency by regional groups.

Strategy for Development and Management of a Long-term Heatwave Plan Addressing Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 폭염 중장기적 적응대책 수립 및 관리 방안)

  • Choi, Jihye;Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.21-40
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    • 2015
  • Heat waves are not new, but due to climate change, the probability of occurrence and severity of heat waves increases, which results in more adverse impacts and damages on local community. Accordingly, the need to tackle heat waves in a more comprehensive and precautionary manner increases. Our study therefore lays emphasis on 1) a long-term plan which not only includes short-term plans in response to the observed damages, but also incorporates relevant sectors to deal with potential impacts in longer term perspective; and 2) a mechanism to manage and adjust the plan in a sustainable manner. In doing so, it examines the impacts of heatwaves and existing plans to tackle them. Based on that, two key conceptual frameworks, namely policy integration and adaptive management, are applied to provide strategies for the development and management of a long-term adapting heatwave plan addressing climate change.

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Study on Tumor Control Probability and Normal Tissue Complication Probability in 3D Conformal Radiotherapy (방사선 입체조형치료에 대한 종양치유확율과 정상조직손상확율에 관한 연구)

  • 추성실
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 1998
  • A most appropriate model of 3-D conformal radiotherapy has been induced by clinical evaluation and animal study, and therapeutic gains were evaluated by numerical equation of tumor control probability(TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). The radiation dose to the tumor and the adjacent normal organs was accurately evaluated and compared using the dose volume histogram(DVH). The TCP and NTCP was derived from the distribution of given dosage and irradiated volume, and these numbers were used as the biological index for the assessment of the treatment effects. Ten patients with liver disease have been evaluated and 3 dogs were sacrificed for this study. Based on the 3-D images of the tumor and adjacent organs, the optimum radiation dose and the projection direction which could maximize the radiation effect while minimizing the effects to the adjacent organs could be decided. 3). The most effective collimation for the normal adjacent organs was made through the beams eye view with the use of multileaf collimator. When the dose was increased from 50Gy to 70Gy, the TCP for the conventional 2-port radiation and the 5-port multidimensional therapy was 0.982 and 0.995 respectively, while the NTCP was 0.725 and 0.142 respectively, suggesting that the 3-D conformal radiotherapy might be the appropriate therapy to apply sufficient radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing the damages to the normal areas of the liver. Positive correlation was observed between the NTCP and the actual complication of the normal liver in the animal study. The present study suggest that the use of 3-D conformal radiotherapy and the application of the mathematical models of TCP and NTCP may provide the improvements in the treatment of hepatoma with enhanced results.

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