• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of damages

Search Result 108, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Study on the Decision of Watergate Stage Using Inundation Simulation for Inland (내수침수모의를 통한 배수문 높이결정에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Yun, Gwan Seon;Yoon, Hyeon Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1149-1156
    • /
    • 2014
  • In order to reduce flood damages, there should demand an appropriate design such as enlarging a bank, dredging a river bottom, building a hydraulic structure and so on. The installation locations about the Watergate are listed of the seven provisions in the river design standard, but it is not detailed. In order to compute proper place considering landuse and basin characteristics of inlands, internal inundation modeling that should be performed is regarded with quantitative evaluation. Anyway, that is very complex and taking a long time because that has to consider hydraulic and hydrologic characteristics. In the current study, therefore, the simple and convenient method for internal inundation modeling was proposed to overview the Watergate location.

Regional Frequency Analysis by Rainfalls using GEV Distribution (GEV 분포에 의한 강우자료의 지역빈도분석)

  • Maeng, Seung-Jin;Lee, Hyeon-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
    • /
    • 2006.11a
    • /
    • pp.403-407
    • /
    • 2006
  • This research aims to reduce severe damages to human beings and properties from floods that ravage Korea every year, by estimating right time to hydraulic structures based on the characteristics of variations in flood flows. To establish this permanent means for the flood mitigation, this research analyse design floods of various dams and hydraulic structures in connection with time of occurrence of the weather abnormalities in Korea. This research was derived the optimal regionalization of the precipitation data which can be classified by the climatologically and geographically homogeneous regions in Korea. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smimov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the GEV distribution among applied distributions. The regional and at-site analyses using L-moment for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Error tests were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

  • PDF

Flood Risk Estimation Using Regional Regression Analysis (지역회귀분석을 이용한 홍수피해위험도 산정)

  • Jang, Ock-Jae;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.71-80
    • /
    • 2009
  • Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

Ultrasonographic Utility for Arthroscopic Examination of Knee (슬관절 관절경 검사 시 초음파 검사의 유용성)

  • Byun, Ki-Yong;Rhee, Kwang-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Cheon;Kim, Dong-Kyu;Kim, Bo-Kun
    • The Journal of Korean Orthopaedic Ultrasound Society
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.18-23
    • /
    • 2009
  • Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between the real pathology & abnormal finding found by ultrasonography. Without an MRI test being done beforehand, an arthroscopy is done after an ultrasonography to show abnormal lesions during a knee abnormality. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 42 patients out of 49 cases, excluding those with rheumatoid arthritis, septic arthritis and patients suspected with a ligament tear, which were examined by ultrasonography alone before receiving a knee arthroscopy in our hospital from July 2007 to July 2008. In every case, a physical examination, simple X-ray and knee ultrasonography was done. An arthroscopy was performed when there was ultrasonographic abnormal finding. Before the procedure, a MRI test was not performed and when abnormal findings were found by an arthroscopy, an appropriate surgery was done. Results: During the ultrasonographic examination, there were various sized effusions in the suprapatellar pouch. Also, in addition there were eleven cases of medial meniscus abnormalities, sixteen cases of lateral meniscus abnormalities, and two cases of cystic lesions. Throughout the arthroscopic examination, there were 14 cases of medial meniscus abnormalities, 20 cases of lateral meniscus abnormalities, 15 cases of cartilage damages, 9 cases of medial pathologic plica, 2 cases of intra-articular loose bodies, 5 cases of chondromalacia, 2 cases of cyst, and 2 cases of synovitis. When an effusion abnormality was found by the ultrasonography in a suprapatellar pouch, there was a 100% probability of knee pathology. When a medial meniscus abnormality was found with an ultrasonography, there was a 90.9% probability of a real pathology. When a lateral meniscus abnormality was found there was 81.2% probability of a real pathology. Ultrasonography was 100% accurate when it came to cystic lesions. Conclusion: Knee ultrasonography performed before an arthroscopy seems to be a very useful examination method when suspecting intra-articular lesions.

  • PDF

Latest Supreme Court Decision on Proof of Causation in Medical Malpractice Cases - Focusing on Supreme Court decision 2022da219427 on August 31, 2023 and the Supreme Court decision 2021Do1833 on August 31, 2023 - (의료과오 사건에서 인과관계 증명에 관한 최신 대법원 판결 - 대법원 2023. 8. 31. 선고 2022다219427 판결 및 대법원 2023. 8. 31. 선고 2021도1833 판결을 중심으로 -)

  • HYEONHO MOON
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.3-36
    • /
    • 2023
  • The main issue in medical malpractice civil litigation is medical negligence and the causal relationship between medical negligence and damages. Regarding the presumption of causality in cases where medical negligence is proven, there is a previous Supreme Court decision 93da52402 on February 10, 1995, but it is difficult to find a case that satisfies the textual requirements of the above decision, and yet, in practice, the above decision is cited. In many cases, causal relationships were assumed, and criticism was consistently raised that it was inconsistent with the text of the above judgment. In its ruling, the Supreme Court reorganized and presented a new legal principle regarding the presumption of causality when medical negligence is proven in a civil lawsuit. According to this, If the patient proves ① the existence of an act that is assessed as a medical negligence, that is, a violation of the duty of care required of an ordinary medical professional at the level of medical care practiced in the field of clinical medicine at the time of medical practice, and ② that the negligence is likely to cause damages to the patient, the burden of proving the causal relationship is alleviated by presuming a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage. Here, the probability of occurrence of damage does not need to be proven beyond doubt from a natural scientific or medical perspective, but if recognizing the causal relationship between the negligence and the damage does not comply with medical principles or if there is a vague possibility that the negligence will cause damage, causality cannot be considered proven. Meanwhile, even if a causal relationship between medical negligence and damage is presumed, the party that performed the medical treatment can overturn the presumption by proving that the patient's damage was not caused by medical negligence. Meanwhile, unlike civil cases, the standard is 'proof beyond reasonable doubt' in criminal cases, and the legal principle of presuming causality does not apply. Accordingly, in a criminal case of professional negligence manslaughter that was decided on the same day regarding the same medical accident, the case was overturned and remanded for not guilty due to lack of proof of a causal relationship between medical negligence and death. The above criminal ruling is a ruling that states that even if 'professional negligence' is recognized in a criminal case related to medical malpractice, the person should not be judged guilty if there is a lack of clear proof of 'causal relationship'.

The Effect of Yunkyopaedocksangamibang on Allergic Contact Dermatitis : Based on the mitigation of skin damage and distributive change of mast cell on DNCB re-expasure region of Mice (연교패독산가미방(連翹敗毒散可味方)이 알러지성 접촉피부염에 미치는 영향(影響) - DNCB 재노출부위의 생쥐 피부손상완화와 비만세포 분포 변화를 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sung;Kim, Jin-Tack;Park, In-Sick;Ahn, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Hai-Poong;Kim, Ho-Hyun;Gang, Yun-Ho
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.77-91
    • /
    • 1999
  • After allergic contact dermatitis elicitated by Dinitrochlorobenzene(DNCB) treatment, ICR female mice administered Yunkyopaedocksangamibang(YPGM) extract were observed to investigate the effect of YPGM on allergic contact dermatitis. This study investigated that contact hypersensitivity assay, abdominal skin morphologic changes including mast cells. At contact hypersensitivity assay, the right ear swelling in YPGM group were probability decreased than DNCB group. At observation of abdominal skin morphologic change, the infiltration of lymphocyte, lymphocyte insertion to epithelium, enlarged capillary, angiogenesis, and damages of epithelium as cytoplasmic vacuolation and enlarge of inter cellular space in YPGM were diminished than DNCB group. The number of mast cell was increased both DNCB and YPGM group. The shape of mast cell in DNCB group was mainly appeared degranulated type, but granulated type in YPGM group. The number of serotonin positive cell was increased both DNCB and YPGM group. The shape of serotonin positive cell in DNCB group was mainly appeared degranulated type, but granulated type in YPGM group. As results indicated that the YPGM extract administration work on the mitigation of skin damages in mouse with allergic contact dermatitis.

  • PDF

A Study on the Volcanic Ash Damage Sector Selection based on the Analysis of Overseas Cases and Domestic Spatial Information (해외 사례 분석과 국내 공간정보 분석을 통한 화산재 피해 분야 선정)

  • Han, Hyeon-gyeong;Baek, Won-kyung;Jung, Hyung-sup;Kim, Miri;Lee, Moungjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.35 no.5_1
    • /
    • pp.751-761
    • /
    • 2019
  • Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, Mt. Sakurajima, Mt. Kikai and etc are distributed around the Korean Peninsula. Recently signs of eruption of Mt. Baekdu are increasing, raising concerns over possible damage to volcanic ash from seasonal winds during the winter eruption. Therefore, detailed procedures for investigation and countermeasures for volcanic ash spread and damage are required. But the standards for the warning and alarm signal of volcanic ash presented by Korea Ministry of Government Legislation are vague, with "when damage is expected" and "when serious damage is expected". In this study, to analyze the damage threshold and to apply the cases of overseas damage to the country, a survey was conducted on the establishment of domestic spatial information by public institutions with public confidence. As a result of the investigation of damage from volcanic ash overseas, the details of the damage cases were different depending on the type of life or income sources of each country. Therefore, instead of applying the volcanic ash damage cases abroad in Korea, spatial information analysis was performed to reflect domestic social and natural characteristics. In addition, we selected the areas to be considered in the event of volcanic ash damage in Korea. Finally, domestic volcanic ash damages should be classified as health, residential, road, railroad, aviation, power, water, agriculture, livestock, forest, and soil. When establishing the volcanic ash alarm optimized for Korea in the future, overseas volcanic ash damage cases and domestic spatial information construction in this study will be helpful in policy establishment.

Estimating Worst Case Flood and Inundation Damages under Climate Change

  • Kim, Sunmin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Nakakita, Eiichi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.189-189
    • /
    • 2016
  • To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

  • PDF

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea: II. Freezing Risk Index Based on Dormancy Depth as a Proxy for Physiological Tolerance to Freezing Temperature (겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 '장호원황도' 품종의 결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석: II. 휴면심도로 표현한 생리적 내동성에 근거한 동해위험지수)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Yun, Jin-I.;Hwang, Kyu-Hong;Kim, Jung-Bae;Yoon, Ik-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.11 no.4
    • /
    • pp.213-220
    • /
    • 2009
  • In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

The Occurrence and Distribution of Adverse Climatic Conditions Focussed on Low Temperature and Drought during Rice Transplanting Period (수도재배기간중(水稻栽培期間中)의 저온(低溫) 및 이앙기(移秧期) 한발출현유형(旱魃出現類型)과 분포(分布))

  • Lee, Yang-Soo;Jung, Yeong-Sang;Ryu, In-Soo;Han, Won-Shig;Kim, Byung-Chan
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.203-209
    • /
    • 1983
  • The occurrence and regional distribution of low temperature and drought during rice cropping period in Korea were studied to characterize the climatic impacts. The long term changes in rice yield, air temperature and precipitation were analyzed, and regional distributions were characterized. The significant climatic impacts on rice yield were heavy rain or flood, drought and low temperature. Since 1910, the occurrence of drought was 29 times, that of flood was 24 times and that of low temperature was 9 times; however, the drought and flood damages were decreased due to expansion of irrigation system since 1970 but low temperature damage was remarkedly increased. The long term changes in air temperature since 1908 in Suweon showed that the 5-year moving average from July to August decreased while that from May to June increased. The occurrence probability of the long term and early term low temperature types were the greatest in Korea and were in order of Suweon, Daegu and Kwangiu. The long term changes in 10-year moving average precipitation from April to June showed a 15 year cycle and recent years were in low precipitation period. The drought frequencies were the highest in Daegu and Pohang area. According to the precipitation from April to June and resevtoir storage at late June, the severest dry area were the Youngnam inland and the southwest coastal area.

  • PDF