• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Success

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Recurrent Neural Network Modeling of Etch Tool Data: a Preliminary for Fault Inference via Bayesian Networks

  • Nawaz, Javeria;Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.239-240
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    • 2012
  • With advancements in semiconductor device technologies, manufacturing processes are getting more complex and it became more difficult to maintain tighter process control. As the number of processing step increased for fabricating complex chip structure, potential fault inducing factors are prevail and their allowable margins are continuously reduced. Therefore, one of the key to success in semiconductor manufacturing is highly accurate and fast fault detection and classification at each stage to reduce any undesired variation and identify the cause of the fault. Sensors in the equipment are used to monitor the state of the process. The idea is that whenever there is a fault in the process, it appears as some variation in the output from any of the sensors monitoring the process. These sensors may refer to information about pressure, RF power or gas flow and etc. in the equipment. By relating the data from these sensors to the process condition, any abnormality in the process can be identified, but it still holds some degree of certainty. Our hypothesis in this research is to capture the features of equipment condition data from healthy process library. We can use the health data as a reference for upcoming processes and this is made possible by mathematically modeling of the acquired data. In this work we demonstrate the use of recurrent neural network (RNN) has been used. RNN is a dynamic neural network that makes the output as a function of previous inputs. In our case we have etch equipment tool set data, consisting of 22 parameters and 9 runs. This data was first synchronized using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The synchronized data from the sensors in the form of time series is then provided to RNN which trains and restructures itself according to the input and then predicts a value, one step ahead in time, which depends on the past values of data. Eight runs of process data were used to train the network, while in order to check the performance of the network, one run was used as a test input. Next, a mean squared error based probability generating function was used to assign probability of fault in each parameter by comparing the predicted and actual values of the data. In the future we will make use of the Bayesian Networks to classify the detected faults. Bayesian Networks use directed acyclic graphs that relate different parameters through their conditional dependencies in order to find inference among them. The relationships between parameters from the data will be used to generate the structure of Bayesian Network and then posterior probability of different faults will be calculated using inference algorithms.

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Adaptive Timing Synchronization Algorithm for WiBro Uplink (WiBro 상향링크를 위한 적응적 시간동기 추정 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Jeong-Been;Jin, Young-Hwan;Kim, Kyung-Soo;Ahn, Jae-Min
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.11A
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    • pp.1068-1075
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    • 2006
  • An adaptive ranging technique for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access(OFDMA) uplink transmission is proposed for timing synchronization of multiple mobile stations located different distances from a base station. By combining the Timing Phase Compensated Frequency Domain Cross-correlation(TPCFDC) and Frequency Domain Differential Cross-correlation(FDDC), the proposed scheme reduces the number of correlators used in ordinary TPCFDC. Repeated initial ranging attempt with the FDDC in the proposed scheme greatly reduces the hardware implementation complexity. Simulation results for ranging success probability and average ranging attempts count show that the proposed algorithm performs similarly with the ordinary TPCFDC even with the 10 times reduced complexity.

Availability of the metapopulation theory in research of biological invasion: Focusing on the invasion success (침입생물 연구에 대한 메타개체군 이론의 활용 가능성: 침입 성공을 중심으로)

  • Jaejun Song;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.525-549
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    • 2022
  • The process of biological invasion is led by the dynamics of a population as a demographic and evolutionary unit. Spatial structure can affect the population dynamics, and it is worth being considered in research on biological invasion which is always accompanied by dispersal. Metapopulation theory is a representative approach to spatially structured populations, which is chiefly applied in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology despite the controversy about its definition. In this study, metapopulation was considered as a spatially structured population that includes at least one subpopulation with significant extinction probability. The early phase of the invasion is suitable to be analyzed in aspects of the metapopulation concept because the introduced population usually has a high extinction probability, and their ecological·genetic traits determining the invasiveness can be affected by the metapopulation structure. Although it is important in the explanation of the prediction of the invasion probability, the metapopulation concept is rarely used in ecological research about biological invasion in Korea. It is expected that applying the metapopulation theory can supply a more detailed investigation of the invasion process at the population level, which is relatively inadequate in Korea. In this study, a framework dividing the invasive metapopulation into long- and middle-distance scales by the relative distance of movement to the natural dispersal range of species is proposed to easily analyze the effect of a metapopulation in real cases. Increased understanding of the mechanisms underlying invasions and improved prediction of future invasion risk are expected with the metapopulation concept and this framework.

Design and Analysis of an Authentication System based on Distance Estimation using Ultrasonic Sensors (초음파 센서를 이용한 거리 기반 인증 시스템의 설계 및 분석)

  • Park, Jin-O;Lee, Mun-Kyu;Lim, Cheol-Su
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2009
  • We introduce a user authentication system using distance estimation and a simple challenge response protocol based on a pre-established key. Using the time difference of arrival between an RF signal and an ultrasonic signal, an authenticator verifies if a user's authentication token is within its threshold distance, and it also verifies if the token's response to its random challenge is valid. We implement our authentication system and we analyze the success rates for authentication according to the variations in the distances and facing angles between the authenticator and the token. Our experimental results show that the token is authenticated with very high probability in reasonable settings.

A Lightpath Establishment Algorithm in WDM/TDM Networks (WDM/TDM 네트워크에서 광 경로 설정 알고리즘)

  • 임재복;김진영;이현태
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.1427-1433
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the routing and wavelength and timeslot assignment problems for a circuit-switched time division multiplexed (TDM) wavelength-routed networks. In this paper, we propose an efficient distributed control protocol for establishing lightpath dynamically. The protocol uses backward reservation to reduce the chance of blocking. We use aggressive reservation method with usable multiple channels and select only one in multiple channel. We show through simulation that the proposed protocol improves the success rate in TDM-based lightpath establishment and the proposed aggressive reservation method improve blocking probability with appropriate reservation channel count.

Object Detection using Multiple Color Normalization and Moving Color Information (다중색상정규화와 움직임 색상정보를 이용한 물체검출)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.12B no.7 s.103
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    • pp.721-728
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    • 2005
  • This paper suggests effective object detection system for moving objects with specified color and motion information. The proposed detection system includes the object extraction and definition process which uses MCN(Multiple Color Normalization) and MCWUPC(Moving Color Weighted Unmatched Pixel Count) computation to decide the existence of moving object and object segmentation technique using signature information is used to exactly extract the objects with high probability. Finally, real time detection system is implemented to verify the effectiveness of the technique and experiments show that the success rate of object tracking is more than $89\%$ of total 120 image frames.

A Differential Fault Attack against Block Cipher HIGHT (블록 암호 HIGHT에 대한 차분 오류 공격)

  • Lee, Yu-Seop;Kim, Jong-Sung;Hong, Seok-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.485-494
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    • 2012
  • The block cipher HIGHT is designed suitable for low-resource hardware implementation. It established as the TTA standard and ISO/IEC 18033-3 standard. In this paper, we propose a differentail fault attack against the block cipher HIGHT. In the proposed attack, we assume that an attacker is possible to inject a random byte fault in the input value of the 28-th round. This attack can recover the secret key by using the differential property between the original ciphertext and fault cipher text pairs. Using 7 and 12 error, our attack recover secret key within a few second with success probability 87% and 51%, respectively.

Development of Indoor Navigation Control System for Swarm Multiple AR.Drone's (실내 환경에서의 AR.Drone 군집 비행 시스템 개발)

  • Moon, SungTae;Cho, Dong-Hyun;Han, Sang-Hyuck;Rew, DongYoung;Gong, HyunCheol
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.166-173
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    • 2014
  • Recently, small quadcopters have been widely used in various areas ranging from military to entertainment applications because interest in the quadcopter increases. Especially, the research on swarm flight which control quadcopters simultaneously without any collision can increase success probability of a important mission. In addition the swarm flight can be applied for demonstrating choreographed aerial maneuvers such as dancing and playing musical instruments. In this paper, we introduce multiple AR.Drone control system based on motion capture for indoor environment in which quadcopters can recognize current position each other and perform scenario based mission.

Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

Decision Making on the Non surgical, Surgical Treatment on Chronic Adult Periodontitis (만성 성인성 치주염 치료시 비외과적, 외과적 방법에 대한 의사결정)

  • Song, Si-Eun;Li, Seung-Won;Cho, Kyoo-Sung;Chai, Jung-Kiu;Kim, Chong-Kwan
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.645-660
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to make and ascertain a decision making process on the base of patient-oriented utilitarianism in the treatment of patients of chronic adult periodontitis. Fifty subjects were chosen in Yonsei Dental hospital and the other fifty were chosen in Severance dental hospital according to the selection criteria. Fifty four patients agreed in this study. NS group(N=32) was treated with scaling and root planing without any surgical intervention, the other S group(N=22) done with flap operation. During the active treatment and healing time, all patients of both groups were educated about the importance of oral hygiene and controlled every visit to the hospital. When periodontal treatment needed according to the diagnostic results, some patients were subjected to professional tooth cleaning and scaling once every 3 months according to an individually designed oral hygienic protocol. Probing depth was recorded on baseline and 18 months after treatments. A questionnaire composed of 6 kinds(hygienic easiness, hypersensitivity, post treatment comfort, complication, functional comfort, compliance) of questions was delivered to each patient to obtain the subjective evaluation regarding the results of therapy. The decision tree for the treatment of adult periodontal disease was made on the result of 2 kinds of periodontal treatment and patient's ubjective evaluation. The optimal path was calculated by using the success rate of the results as the probability and utility according to relative value and the economic value in the insurance system. The success rate to achieve the diagnostic goal of periodontal treatment as the remaining pocket depth less than 3mm and without BOP was $0.83{\pm}0.12$ by non surgical treatment and $0.82{\pm}0.14$ by surgical treatment without any statistically significant difference. The moderate success rate of more than 4mm probing pocket depth were 0.17 together. The utilities of non-surgical treatment results were 100 for a result with less than 3mm probing pocket depth, 80 for the other results with more than 4mm probing pocket depth, 0 for the extraction. Those of surgical treatment results were the same except 75 for the results with more than 4mm. The pooling results of subjective evaluation by using a questionnaire were 60% for satisfaction level and 40% for no satisfaction level in the patient group receiving nonsurgical treatment and 33% and 67% in the other group receiving surgical treatment. The utilities for 4 satisfaction levels were 100, 75, 60, 50 on the base of that the patient would express the satisfaction level with normal distribution. The optimal path of periodontal treatment was rolled back by timing the utility on terminal node and the success rate, the distributed ratio of patient's satisfaction level. Both results of the calculation was non surgical treatment. Therefore, it can be said that non-surgical treatment may be the optimal path for this decision tree of treatment protocol if the goal of the periodontal treatment is to achieve the remaining probing pocket depth of less than 3mm for adult chronic periodontitis and if the utilitarian philosophy to maximise the expected utility for the patients is advocated.

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