• 제목/요약/키워드: Probability of Success

검색결과 273건 처리시간 0.028초

Evolvable Cooperation Strategy for the Interactive Robot Soccer with Genetic Programming

  • Kim, Hyoung-Rock;Hwang, Jung-Hoon;Kwon, Dong-Soo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2001년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.59.2-59
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents an evolvable cooperation strategy based on a genetic programming for the interactive robot soccer game. The interactive robot soccer game has been developed to allow a person to join in the game dynamically and to reinforce entertainment characteristics. In this game, a cooperation strategy between humans and autonomous robots is very important in order to make the game more enjoyable. First of all, necessary action sets for the cooperation strategy and its strategy structure are presented. In the first stage, a blocking action that an autonomous robot cut off an enemy robot from disturbing the way of the human controlled robot has been considered. The success probability of the blocking action has beer obtained in ...

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공리적 설계에서 정보량 계산 방법

  • 신광섭;이정욱;이상일;권용덕;박경진
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문요약집
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    • pp.52-52
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    • 2004
  • 공리적 설계는 미국 매사추세츠 공과대학의 서남표 교수에 의해 창출되고 보급되어 온 설계이론이다. 그러나 좀 더 정확히 말한다면 설계이론 이라기보다는 일반적인 공학적 과정에 적용할 수 있는 원리를 포함하는 설계프레임워크라 할 수 있다. 기계공학에서의 역학과 같이 설계를 하기 위해서는 과학적인 기본원리에 따라 설계해야 한다는 것이다. 그러므로 공리적 설계는 설계과정에서 설계자에게 과학적 원리를 제공하여 설계자가 이성적이고 논리적으로 설계를 진행할 수 있도록 하여, 시행착오를 줄이며, 좀 더 창조적이고 최상의 설계를 선택할 수 있도록 도움을 주는 것이다.(중략)

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M&S를 활용한 유도탄 검사주기 및 수량 설정 방안 (Certified Missile Rounds Concepts Using Modeling and Simulation)

  • 김병수;이계신;김동석;문기성
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 M&S(Modeling and Simulation) 기법을 통하여 보증 유도탄의 주기적 검사방법을 제시하였다. 유도탄 운용 개념과 예측된 저장신뢰도로부터 시나리오를 작성, 이를 기반으로 모의시험을 위한 모델링을 수행하고 시뮬레이션 프로그램으로 구현하였다. 그리고, 시뮬레이션 결과와 이론적인 추정치를 비교 검토하고, 목표로 하는 정상작동확률을 달성할 수 있는 최적의 주기점검 방안을 제시한다.

다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용한 ECMWF 예측자료의 강수예측 정확도 향상 (Improvement of precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF data using multi-layer perceptron technique)

  • 이승수;김가영;윤순조;안현욱
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제52권7호
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    • pp.475-482
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    • 2019
  • 2주에서 2개월까지 선행기간을 가지는 계절내-계절(Subseasonal-to-Seasonal, S2S) 예측결과는 산업전반에 걸쳐 다양한 분야에 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대되고 있으나, 일기예보나 중장기 예보대비 낮은 예측성으로 인하여 현재까지 활용성이 매우 낮은 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기계학습 기법중 비선형회귀 분야에서 좋은 결과를 보여주는 다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용하여 S2S 예측자료의 후처리를 통한 국내 영역에서의 강수예측성 향상에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 후처리 모형의 학습을 위한 입력자료로는 ECMWF의 S2S 과거예측(Hindcast) 정보를 이용하였으며 양분예보기법에 기반하여 학습된 다층퍼셉트론 모델을 이용한 후처리 결과와의 비교 분석이 수행되었다. 비교분석 결과 편차도(Bias score)는 평균 59.7% 감소하였고, 정확도(Accuracy)는 124.3% 증가하였으며, 임계성공지수(Critical Success Index)는 88.5% 향상된 것으로 분석되었다. 탐지확률(Probability of detection)의 경우 원자료 대비 평균 9.5% 감소하였으나 이는 ECMWF의 예측모델이 강수의 발생일을 과도하게 예측하였기 때문인 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구 수행 결과 비록 ECMWF의 S2S 예측자료의 예측성이 낮더라도 후처리를 통해 예측성을 향상 시킬 수 있음을 확인하였으며, 본 연구 결과는 향후 수자원과 농업 분야에서 S2S 자료의 활용성을 높이는데 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

저장 공간 및 연산 효율적인 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜 (A Storage and Computation Efficient RFID Distance Bounding Protocol)

  • 안해순;윤은준;부기동;남인길
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제35권9B호
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    • pp.1350-1359
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    • 2010
  • 최근에 근접 인증(proximity authentication)을 위해 사용하는 RFID 시스템이 경계 위조(distance fraud), 마피아 위조(mafia fraud), 테러리스트 위조(terrorist fraud) 공격들과 같은 다양한 위치 기반의 중계 공격(relay attack)들에 취약함이 증명되었다. 이러한 중계 공격들을 방지하기 위해 리더와 태그사이의 데이터 왕복 전송 시간을 측정하는 경계 결정(distance-bounding) 프로토콜이 한 해결책으로 연구되고 있다. 2008년에 Munilla와 Peinado는 Hancke-Kuhn이 제안한 프로토콜을 수정하여 보이드-시도(void-challenge) 기법을 적용한 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜을 제안하였다. Hancke-Kuhn 프로토콜과 비교하여 Munilla-Peinado의 프로토콜은 공격자에게 n번의 왕복에서(5/8)n의 성공 확률을 제공함으로써 공격 성공 확률을 감소시켜준다. 하지만 저장 공간 낭비와 많은 해쉬 함수 연산으로 인해 저비용 수동형 태그에는 비효율적이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 태그측의 해쉬 함수 연산량을 줄이고, 적은 저장 공간을 요구함으로써 저비용 수동형 태그에 적합한 새로운 RFID 경계 결정 프로토콜을 제안한다. 결론적으로 제안한 경계 결정 프로토콜은 Munilla-Peinado의 프로토콜과 비교하여 저장 공간 효율성과 연산 효율성을 높여줄 뿐만 아니라, $(5/8)^n$의 공격자 성공 확률을 보장함으로써 동일한 안전성을 제공할 수 있다.

행정업무(行政業務)의 전산화(電算化)를 위한 선정기준(選定基準) 및 모형(模型) (A Study of Project Selection Criteria and Models for Computerization of Governmental Administration)

  • 이진주;박영탁
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 1977
  • The trend of computerization is significant in Korea even at its beginning stage, especially for governmental administration. However, full-fledged success of computerization in an organization is reported to be rare while the cost of computerization has been high and increasing. This paper is concerned with two features for the successful implementation of a computerized system in an organization selection criteria for the computerization among the possible candidate projects and project selection models. Due to the dearth of literature regarding successful implementation of computerization, other sources of literature with respect to R & D management, method engineering, etc. were reviewed to develop a set of factors influencing successful computerization. Thus, project selection criteria for computerization of governmental administration are developed and organized as follows: cost of computerization project including both system development and operating cost, quanitative and qualitative benefits of computerization project, probability of technical and implementation success of computerization and other organizational and political factors to be considered. These criteria are broken down into detailed sets of subcriteria to be measured. To select a project after thorough consideration of the selection criteria, a project selection model which takes into account all criteria together has to be developed. In the study three project selection models are suggested and developed. They are the checklist model, multi-stage cut-off model, and composite criteria model. A detailed procedure for each of the three models is illustrated. Although the project selection criteria and models are developed here primarily for the computerization of governmental administration, they are easily applicable to other settings of computerization. Finally, some caveats for the use of selection criteria and models are discussed.

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상호영향형 R&D과제군의 평가산정을 위한 "CIDEAR" 모형의 개발 (Construction of "CIDEAR" Model for Selecting and Evaluating Cross Impact R & D Projects)

  • 권철신;박준호;홍석기
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to construct $\ulcorner$CIDEAR(Cross Impact-DEA-AR)$\lrcorner$ model which evaluates proposed R&D projects considering cross impact among them and selects proper projects to utilize resources efficiently as well as to maximize efficacy of investments. For this purpose, $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model is designed as the following six steps. $\ulcorner$Decision Theory Evaluation Model$\lrcorner$ is for setting and selecting the evaluation items according to the structured procedure of evaluation system. The priority of items is decided at $\ulcorner$AR Decision Model$\lrcorner$$\ulcorner$Cross Impact Estimation Model$\lrcorner$ is for computing the final probability of success and the result is used to revise the evaluation results of $\ulcorner$Decision Theory Evaluation Model$\lrcorner$. $\ulcorner$Resource Performance Analysis Model$\lrcorner$ classifies the proposed R&D projects on the basis of required resources and expected performance. Consequently, the possibility of bias of project selection can be prevented. $\ulcorner$Priority Oder Decision Model$\lrcorner$ is for computing the efficacy of proposed projects. Finally, $\ulcorner$Efficacy-Efficiency Cause Analysis Model$\lrcorner$ analyzes the structure of efficacy and efficiency of the projects. The major findings and significances of this study are summarized as follows: (1) $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model can deal with the affairs of R&D projects having the characteristics of mutual independence as well as mutual dependence in the point of efficacy and efficiency. Hence, it is possible to evaluate and select R&D projects more accurately. (2) It can be possible to raise the possibility of projects success. R&D manager can use the information for project management because the efficacy-efficiency structure of selected projects can be analyzed. (3) We proved the usefulness of the constructed $\ulcorner$CIDEAR$\lrcorner$ model using an case about twenty-one R&D projects of a leading company of electronic industry in Korea.

Treatment of Isoniazid-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis

  • Jhun, Byung Woo;Koh, Won-Jung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • 제83권1호
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    • pp.20-30
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    • 2020
  • Tuberculosis (TB) remains a threat to public health and is the leading cause of death globally. Isoniazid (INH) is an important first-line agent for the treatment of TB considering its early bactericidal activity. Resistance to INH is now the most common type of resistance. Resistance to INH reduces the probability of treatment success and increases the risk of acquiring resistance to other first-line drugs such as rifampicin (RIF), thereby increasing the risk of multidrug-resistant-TB. Studies in the 1970s and 1980s showed high success rates for INH-resistant TB cases receiving regimens comprised of first-line drugs. However, recent data have indicated that INH-resistant TB patients treated with only firs-tline drugs have poor outcomes. Fortunately, based on recent systematic meta-analyses, the World Health Organization published consolidated guidelines on drug-resistant TB in 2019. Their key recommendations are treatment with RIF-ethambutol (EMB)-pyrazinamide (PZA)-levofloxacin (LFX) for 6 months and no addition of injectable agents to the treatment regimen. The guidelines also emphasize the importance of excluding resistance to RIF before starting RIF-EMB-PZA-LFX regimen. Additionally, when the diagnosis of INH-resistant TB is confirmed long after starting the first-line TB treatment, the clinician must decide whether to start a 6-month course of RIF-EMB-PZA-LFX based on the patient's condition. However, these recommendations are based on observational studies, not randomized controlled trials, and are thus conditional and based on low certainty of the effect estimates. Therefore, further work is needed to optimize the treatment of INH-resistant TB.

일개 도 지역 자살 시도 환자에 대한 병원전 단계 분석 (The pre-hospital analysis of patients with suicide attempts in Gangwon-do)

  • 김기환;조준휘;문중범;박찬우;신명철;김가을;이준석;박윤수;옥택근
    • 대한응급의학회지
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.687-698
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study examined the characteristics of suicidal attempters, including pre-hospital patients and those who visited the emergency department. Methods: Suicidal attempters who had been reported to the 119 call center were selected between July 2015 and June 2016. Sex, age, place, methods of suicidal attempt, season, time, and suicide success rate were reviewed in the fire center records. Results: A total 961 suicide attempters were enrolled. Among them, 53.6% were males who had an approximately 2.6 times higher mortality than that of females (9.2%). The most preferred place to commit suicide was the home in both sexes (68.0% in male, 82.8% in female) and the most preferred methods was drug intoxication, particularly pesticide. The method with the highest mortality was hanging and the lowest was self-harm. The season of the highest mortality was spring. The success of suicide and the time variation were similar. Most of the un-transferred patients also selected fatal suicide attempts compared to transfer patients. Conclusion: Unlike previous studies, this study includes information on un-transferred patients. Overall, the probability of death was highest as more than 50 years men chose hanging as a method, which had an influence on the un-transferred patients group.

한국 물리치료사 국가 면허시험 합격 여부의 예측요인 탐색 (Exploring the Predictive Factors of Passing the Korean Physical Therapist Licensing Examination)

  • 김소현;조성현
    • 대한통합의학회지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to establish a model of the predictive factors for success or failure of examinees undertaking the Korean physical therapist licensing examination (KPTLE). Additionally, we assessed the pass/fail cut-off point. Methods : We analyzed the results of 10,881 examinees who undertook the KPTLE, using data provided by the Korea Health Personnel Licensing Examination Institute. The target variable was the test result (pass or fail), and the input variables were: sex, age, test subject, and total score. Frequency analysis, chi-square test, descriptive statistics, independent t-test, correlation analysis, binary logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed on the data. Results : Sex and age were not significant predictors of attaining a pass (p>.05). The test subjects with the highest probability of passing were, in order, medical regulation (MR) (Odds ratio (OR)=2.91, p<.001), foundations of physical therapy (FPT) (OR=2.86, p<.001), diagnosis and evaluation for physical therapy (DEPT) (OR=2.74, p<.001), physical therapy intervention (PTI) (OR=2.66, p<.001), and practical examination (PE) (OR=1.24, p<.001). The cut-off points for each subject were: FPT, 32.50; DEPT, 29.50; PTI, 44.50; MR, 14.50; and PE, 50.50. The total score (TS) was 164.50. The sensitivity, specificity, and the classification accuracy of the prediction model was 99 %, 98 %, and 99 %, respectively, indicating high accuracy. Area under the curve (AUC) values for each subject were: FPT, .958; DEPT, .968; PTI, .984; MR, .885; PE, .962; and TS, .998, indicating a high degree of fit. Conclusion : In our study, the predictive factors for passing KPTLE were identified, and the optimal cut-off point was calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was adequate to explain the predictive model. These results will provide universities and examinees with useful information for predicting their success or failure in the KPTLE.