• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Error

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Extended cognitive reliability and error analysis method for advanced control rooms of nuclear power plants

  • Xiaodan Zhang;Shengyuan Yan;Xin Liu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.9
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    • pp.3472-3482
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    • 2024
  • This study proposes a modified extended cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for achieving a more accurate human error probability (HEP) in advanced control rooms. The traditional approach lacks failure data and does not consider the common performance condition (CPC) weights in different cognitive functions. The modified extended CREAM decomposes tasks using a method that combines structured information analysis (SIA) and the extended CREAM. The modified extended CREAM performs the weight analysis of CPCs in different cognitive functions, and the weights include cognitive, correlative, and important weights. We used the extended CREAM to obtain the cognitive weight. We determined the correlative weights of the CPCs for different cognitive functions using the triangular fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (TF-DEMATEL), and evaluated the importance weight of CPCs based on the interval 2-tuple linguistic approach and ensured the value of the importance weight using the entropy method in the different cognitive functions. Finally, we obtained the comprehensive weights of the different cognitive functions and calculated the HEPs. The accuracy and sensitivity of the modified extended CREAM were compared with those of the basic CREAM. The results demonstrate that the modified extended CREAM calculates the HEP more effectively in advanced control rooms.

Advanced Bounding Box Prediction With Multiple Probability Map

  • Lee, Poo-Reum;Kim, Yoon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a bounding box prediction algorithm using multiple probability maps to improve object detection result of object detector. Although the performance of object detectors has been significantly improved, it is still not perfect due to technical problems and lack of learning data. Therefore, we use the result correction method to obtain more accurate object detection results. In the proposed algorithm, the preprocessed bounding box created as a result of object detection by the object detector is clustered in various form, and a conditional probability is given to each cluster to make multiple probability map. Finally, multiple probability map create new bounding box of object using morphological elements. Experiment results show that the newly predicted bounding box reduces the error in ground truth more than 45% on average compared to the previous bounding box.

Rejection Degree by Fuzzy Significance Probability

  • Choi, Gyu-Tag;Park, Il-Soo;Nam, Hyun-Woo;Moon, Jong-Choon
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.135-139
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    • 2014
  • We propose some properties for fuzzy hypothesis test by fuzzy significance probability. First, we define fuzzy number data and fuzzy significance probability for repeatedly observed data with alternated error term. By the agreement index, we compare fuzzy significance probability with significance level and drawing conclusions the degree of acceptance and rejection by agreement index.

A computation method of reliability for preprocessing filters in the fire control system using Markov process and state transition probability matrix (Markov process 및 상태천이확률 행렬 계산을 통한 사격통제장치 전처리필터 신뢰성 산출 기법)

  • Kim, Jae-Hun;Lyou, Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 1999
  • An easy and efficient method is proposed for a computation of reliability of preprocessing filters in the fire control system when the sensor data are frequently unreliable depending on the operation environment. It computes state transition probability matrix after modeling filter states as a Markov process, and computing false alarm and detection probability of each filter state under the given sensor failure probability. It shows that two important indices such as distributed state probability and error variance can be derived easily for a reliability assessment of the given sensor fusion system.

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Outage Probability Analysis of Space-Time Line Code System (시공간 선 부호 시스템의 아웃티지 확률 분석)

  • Kim, Hyeonsoo;Lee, Juyoung;Yang, Seung Geon;Lim, Seung-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.536-538
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    • 2022
  • Since the invention of a novel diversity technique, namely a space-time line code (STLC), though the previous studies have theoretically analyzed the error rate and ergodic capacity, the outage probability has not been revealed yet. In this paper, we characterize the probability density function of the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio, and mathematically derive the closed-form expression of the outage probability. Based on numerical simulations, furthermore, we validate the accuracy of the mathematical analysis, and present the insight into the system design and implementation.

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The Mutual Information for Bit-Linear Linear-Dispersion Codes (BLLD 부호의 Mutual Information)

  • Jin, Xiang-Lan;Yang, Jae-Dong;Song, Kyoung-Young;No, Jong-Seon;Shin, Dong-Joon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.10A
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    • pp.958-964
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we derive the relationship between the bit error probability (BEP) of maximum a posteriori (MAP) bit detection and the bit minimum mean square error (MMSE), that is, the BEP is greater than a quarter of the bit USE and less than a half of the bit MMSE. By using this result, the lower and upper bounds of the derivative of the mutual information are derived from the BEP and the lower and upper bounds are easily obtained in the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems with the bit-linear linear-dispersion (BLLD) codes in the Gaussian channel.

Performance Enhancement of Decision Directed SNR Estimation by Correction Scheme of SNR Estimation Error (결정지향 SNR 추정방식에서의 추정오차 보정기법을 통한 SNR 추정성능개선)

  • Kwak, Jae-Min
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.982-987
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, the SNR estimation error of Decision Directed SNR estimation method in AWGN is investigated, which uses samples received in reference decision region. In communication system receiver, when SNR estimation scheme using error vectors between ideal sample points and received sample points of reference region is adopted, the samples contain incorrectly received samples due to AWGN. Consequently, the mean of estimated reference constellation point is shifted and Decision Directed SNR estimation is inaccurately performed. These effects are explained by modified probability density function and difference between actual SNR and estimated SNR is theoretically derived and quantatively analyzed. It is proved that SNR estimation error obtained through computer simulation is matched up with derived one, and SNR estimation performance is enhanced significantly by adopting suggested correction scheme.

A Study on the PN code Acquisition for DS/CDMA System over Phas-Error (위상에러를 고려한 DS/CDMA시스템의 PN 부호 획득에 관한 연구)

  • 정남모
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.128-134
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, the performance on the PN code acquisition of DS/CDMA system was analyzed using the Nakagami-m probability density function considered fading environment. The equations on detection probability, $P_D$ and false alarm probability, $P_{FA}$, decision variables affecting the PN code acquisition time were derived and proved using simulation in order to analyze the performance. In conclusion, It was necessary increasing the gain of PLL for correcting phase errors and improving the acquisition performance of PN code in apply to the rake receiver.

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Prediction of stress intensity factor range for API 5L grade X65 steel by using GPR and MPMR

  • Murthy, A. Ramachandra;Vishnuvardhan, S.;Saravanan, M.;Gandhi, P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.81 no.5
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    • pp.565-574
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    • 2022
  • The infrastructures such as offshore, bridges, power plant, oil and gas piping and aircraft operate in a harsh environment during their service life. Structural integrity of engineering components used in these industries is paramount for the reliability and economics of operation. Two regression models based on the concept of Gaussian process regression (GPR) and Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) were developed to predict stress intensity factor range (𝚫K). Both GPR and MPMR are in the frame work of probability distribution. Models were developed by using the fatigue crack growth data in MATLAB by appropriately modifying the tools. Fatigue crack growth experiments were carried out on Eccentrically-loaded Single Edge notch Tension (ESE(T)) specimens made of API 5L X65 Grade steel in inert and corrosive environments (2.0% and 3.5% NaCl). The experiments were carried out under constant amplitude cyclic loading with a stress ratio of 0.1 and 5.0 Hz frequency (inert environment), 0.5 Hz frequency (corrosive environment). Crack growth rate (da/dN) and stress intensity factor range (𝚫K) values were evaluated at incremental values of loading cycle and crack length. About 70 to 75% of the data has been used for training and the remaining for validation of the models. It is observed that the predicted SIF range is in good agreement with the corresponding experimental observations. Further, the performance of the models was assessed with several statistical parameters, namely, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Coefficient of Efficiency (E), Root Mean Square Error to Observation's Standard Deviation Ratio (RSR), Normalized Mean Bias Error (NMBE), Performance Index (ρ) and Variance Account Factor (VAF).

Performance Analysis for The Coordinate Interleaved Orthogonal Design of Space Time Block Code in The Time Selective Fading Channel (시간 선택적 페이딩 환경에서 CIOD 시공간 블록 부호의 성능 분석)

  • Moon, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Ho-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we consider the performance evaluation of space time block code (STBC)) with coordinate interleaved orthogonal design (CIOD) over time selective channel. In case of quasi static channel, STBC-CIOD satisfies full rate and full diversity (FRFD) property with the single symbol decoding. However in the time selective channel, the symbol interference degrades the system performance when we employ the single symbol decoding. We derive the union bound of the symbol error probability by evaluating the pairwise error probability in the first order Markov channel. We also present simulation results of STBC-CIOD with QPSK.