• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of Area

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A Study on the Sale Estimate Model of a Large-Scale Store in Korea (국내 대형점의 매출추정모델 설정 방안 연구)

  • Youn, Myoung-Kil;Kim, Jong-Jin;Park, Chul-Ju;Shim, Kyu-Yeol
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to construct a turnover estimation model by investigating research by Park et al. (2006) on the market area of domestic distribution. The study investigated distribution by using a new tool for the turnover estimation technique. This study developed and discussed the turnover estimation technique of Park et al. (2006), applying it to a large-scale retailer in "D"city that was suitable for on-the-spot distribution. It constructed the new model in accordance with test procedures keeping to this retail business location, to apply its procedures to a specific situation and improve the turn over estimation process. Further, it investigated the analysis and procedures of existing turnover estimation cases to provide problems and alternatives for turnover estimation for a large-scale retailer in "D"city. Finally, it also discussed problems and scope for further research. Research design, data, and methodology - This study was conducted on the basis of "virtue" studies. In other words, it took into account the special quality of the structure of Korea's trade zones. The researcher sought to verify a sale estimate model for use in a distribution industry's location. The main purpose was to enable the sale estimate model (that is, the individual model's presentation) to be practically used in real situations in Korea by supplementing processes and variables. Results - The sale estimate model is constructed, first, by conducting a data survey of the general trading area. Second, staying within the city's census of company operating areas, the city's total consumption expenditure is derived by applying the large-scale store index. Third, the probability of shopping is investigated. Fourth, the scale of sales is estimated using the process of singularity. The correct details need to be verified for the model construction and the new model will need to be a distinct sale estimate model, with this being a special quality for business conditions. This will need to be a subsequent research task. Conclusions - The study investigated, tested, and supplemented the turnover estimation model of Park et al. (2006) in a market area in South Korea. Supplementation of some procedures and variables could provide a turnover estimation model in South Korea that would be an independent model. The turnover estimation model is applied, first, by undertaking an investigation of the market area. Second, a census of the intercity market area is carried out to estimate the total consumption of the specific city. Consumption is estimated by applying indexes of large-scale retailers. Third, an investigation is undertaken on the probability of shopping. Fourth, the scale of turnover is estimated. Further studies should investigate each department as well as direct and indirect variables. The turnover estimation model should be tested to construct new models depending on the type of region and business. In-depth and careful discussion by researchers is also needed. An upgraded turnover estimation model could be developed for Korea's on-the-spot distribution.

A Study on the Presentation of Entrance Surface Dose Model using Semiconductor Dosimeter, General Dosimeter, Glass Dosimeter: Focusing on Comparative Analysis of Effective Dose and Disease Risk through PCXMC 2.0 based on Monte Carlo Simulation (반도체 선량계, 일반 선량계, 유리 선량계를 이용한 입사표면선량 모델 제시에 관한 연구: 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기반의 PCXMC 2.0을 통한 유효선량과 발병 위험도의 비교분석을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Jun-Ho;Lee, Kyung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2018
  • One of the purposes of radiation protection is to minimize stochastic effects. PCXMC 2.0 is a Monte Carlo Simulation based program and makes it possible to predict effective dose and the probability of cancer development through entrance surface dose. Therefore, it is especially important to measure entrance surface dose through dosimeter. The purpose of this study is to measure entrance surface dose through semiconductor dosimeter, general dosimeter, glass dosimeter, and to compare and analyze the effective dose and probability of disease of critical organs. As an experimental method, the entrance surface dose of skull, chest, abdomen was measured per dosimeter and the effective dose and the probability of cancer development of critical organs per area was evaluated by PCXMC 2.0. As a result, the entrance surface dose per area was different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter even under the same condition. Base on this analysis, the effective dose and probability of developing cancer of critical organs were also different in the order of a general dosimeter, a semiconductor dosimeter, and a glass dosimeter. In conclusion, it was found that the effective dose and the risk of diseases differ according to the dosimeter used, even under the same conditions, and through this study it was found that it is important to present an accurate entrance surface dose model according to each dosimeter.

An Analysis of the Fallow Potential in Agricultural Area by Multi-logistic Model - A Case Study of Ibang-myeon, Changnyeong-gun, Kyungsangnam-do - (다중 로지스틱 모형에 의한 농경지 휴경잠재성 분석 - 경상남도 창녕군 이방면을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, In-Hwan;Jang, Gab-Sue;Seo, Dong-Jo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2006
  • Topographic condition is one of the most important things in farming activities. The topographic condition didn't matter for farming in the past because agricultural products had competitive power in the market. So farmers tried to extend their farms without any concern of topographic condition. We need less labor-consuming farming as industrial structure has been changed and the competitive power of the farming has been getting weak. This study analyzed the fallow potential in agricultural area by topographic condition so that we have got results as follows. Maps of elevation, slope, distance from roads and water resources were made for getting a fallow probability model in farms, and these 4 factors were used as independent variables while a variable on whether it is fallow or not is a dependent variable in logistic regression model. In an analysis of the fallow potential depending on farm land types, the fallow probability in fallow orchard showed the highest value of farm lands, 0.973. Cultivated orchard had 0.730 and upland had 0.616 of the fallow probability. The fields having high fallow potential had high elevation, steep slope, and long distance from water resources and roads. Especially, fields having a probability over 0.99 appeared in orchards, fallow uplands and single cropping uplands, which were recognized to have several disadvantages related to the fallow like as high elevation, steep slope, and long distance from water resources and roads. With the logistic analysis, the suitable farm lands appeared at 16.45m of the mean elevation, 1.89 degree of the mean slope, 39.91m of the average distance from water resources, and 32.39m of the average distance from roads. On the contrary, non-suitable land appeared at 114.7m of the mean elevation, 24.9 degree of the mean slope. The distance from roads was more important variable than the distance from water resources for analyzing suitable farm land.

Spatial Analysis of Typhoon Genesis Distribution based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Scenario (IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 시나리오 기반 태풍발생 공간분석)

  • Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ga Young
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2014
  • Natural disasters of large scale such as typhoon, heat waves and snow storm have recently been increased because of climate change according to global warming which is most likely caused by greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Increase of greenhouse gases concentration has caused the augmentation of earth's surface temperature, which raised the frequency of incidences of extreme weather in northern hemisphere. In this paper, we present spatial analysis of future typhoon genesis based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 scenario, which applied latest carbon dioxide concentration trend. For this analysis, we firstly calculated GPI using RCP 8.5 monthly data during 1982~2100. By spatially comparing the monthly averaged GPIs and typhoon genesis locations of 1982~2010, a probability density distribution(PDF) of the typhoon genesis was estimated. Then, we defined 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI and 0.15GPI based on the GPI ranges which are corresponding to probability densities of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, respectively. Based on the PDF-related GPIs, spatial distributions of probability on the typhoon genesis were estimated for the periods of 1982~2010, 2011~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100. Also, we analyzed area density using historical genesis points and spatial distributions. As the results, Philippines' east area corresponding to region of latitude $10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}$ shows high typhoon genesis probability in future. Using this result, we expect to estimate the potential region of typhoon genesis in the future and to develop the genesis model.

Study on Derivation of Fourth-Order GIUH and Revision of Initial State Probability (4차 하천에서의 GIUH의 유도 및 초기확률의 보정에 관한 연구)

  • Ham, Dae-Heon;Joo, Jin-Gul;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2008
  • This study is to derive the fourth-order Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH), driven for only third-order basin, for the application of GIUH to various types of basin. The second, third, and fourth order GIUHs were compared for various topographical conditions. The results showed lower peak runoff and later peak time in GIUH with higher stream order. Initial state probability was estimated from a function of geomorphologic parameters such as area ratio and bifurcation ratio for the application of GIUH. However, initial state probabilities and early parts of the GIUHs have negative values for many basins due to the inherent errors in the parameters. Initial state probability was calculated by area ratio of direct drainage using ArcView GIS 3.2 model to solve the problem. GIUHs were estimated for three basins, Sanganmi, Byeongcheon, and Sangye, using the above suggested method, and the results showed that the method is free of the problem.

Contact Area-Dependent Electron Transport in Au/n-type Ge Schottky Junction

  • Kim, Hogyoung;Lee, Da Hye;Myung, Hye Seon
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.412-416
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    • 2016
  • The electrical properties of Au/n-type Ge Schottky contacts with different contact areas were investigated using current-voltage (I-V) measurements. Analyses of the reverse bias current characteristics showed that the Poole-Frenkel effect became strong with decreasing contact area. The contribution of the perimeter current density to the total current density was found to increase with increasing reverse bias voltage. Fitting of the forward bias I-V characteristics by considering various transport models revealed that the tunneling current is dominant in the low forward bias region. The contributions of both the thermionic emission (TE) and the generation-recombination (GR) currents to the total current were similar regardless of the contact area, indicating that these currents mainly flow through the bulk region. In contrast, the contribution of the tunneling current to the total current increased with decreasing contact area. The largest $E_{00}$ value (related to tunneling probability) for the smallest contact area was associated with higher tunneling effect.

Developing a Method to Define Mountain Search Priority Areas Based on Behavioral Characteristics of Missing Persons

  • Yoo, Ho Jin;Lee, Jiyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2019
  • In mountain accident events, it is important for the search team commander to determine the search area in order to secure the Golden Time. Within this period, assistance and treatment to the concerned individual will most likely prevent further injuries and harm. This paper proposes a method to determine the search priority area based on missing persons behavior and missing persons incidents statistics. GIS (Geographic Information System) and MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) are integrated by applying WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) techniques. Missing persons were classified into five types, and their behavioral characteristics were analyzed to extract seven geographic analysis factors. Next, index values were set up for each missing person and element according to the behavioral characteristics, and the raster data generated by multiplying the weight of each element are superimposed to define models to select search priority areas, where each weight is calculated from the AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) through a pairwise comparison method obtained from search operation experts. Finally, the model generated in this study was applied to a missing person case through a virtual missing scenario, the priority area was selected, and the behavioral characteristics and topographical characteristics of the missing persons were compared with the selected area. The resulting analysis results were verified by mountain rescue experts as 'appropriate' in terms of the behavior analysis, analysis factor extraction, experimental process, and results for the missing persons.

Performance Improvement of Genetic Algorithms through Fusion of Queen-bee Evolution into the Rank-based Control of Mutation Probability (등급기준 돌연변이 확률조절에 여왕벌진화의 융합을 통한 유전자알고리즘의 성능 향상)

  • Jung, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes a fusion method of the queen-bee evolution into the rank-based control of mutation probability for improving the performances of genetic algorithms. The rank-based control of mutation probability which showed some performance improvements than the original method was a method that prevented individuals of genetic algorithms from falling into local optimum areas and also made it possible for the individuals to get out of the local optimum areas if they fell into there. This method, however, showed not good performances at the optimization problems that had a global optimum located in a small area regardless of the number of local optimum areas. We think that this is because the method is insufficient in the convergence into the global optimum, so propose a fusion method of the queen-bee evolution into this method in this paper. The queen-bee evolution inspired by reproduction process of queen-bee is a method that can strengthen the convergency of genetic algorithms. From the extensive experiments with four function optimization problems in order to measure the performances of proposed method we could find that the performances of proposed method was considerably good at the optimization problems whose global optimum is located in a small area as we expected. Our method, however, showed not good performances at the problems whose global optima were distributed in broad ranges and even showed bad performances at the problems whose global optima were located far away. These results indicate that our method can be effectively used at the problems whose global optimum is located in a small area.

Proposal of Early-Warning Criteria for Highway Debris Flow Using Rainfall Frequency (1): Proposal of Rainfall Criteria (확률 강우량을 이용한 고속도로 토석류 조기경보기준 제안 (1) : 강우기준 제안)

  • Choi, Jaesoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we propose rainfall frequency criteria for the development of early-warning system based on the evaluation of the highway debris flow that includes the contents of the rainfall recurrence cycle. The rainfall criterion was recommended based on the results of previous researches and the recommended rainfall criterion was 1 hour, 6 hours, and 3 days. At this time, the study subjects were located in Gangwon area and the probability rainfall of 8 stations in Gangwon area was collected. Also, the probabilistic distribution of the 1 hour, 6 hour, and 3 day rainfall criteria to be used for the early warning for the highway debris flow in Kangwon area was estimated through the probability analysis. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between 3 types of rainfall criteria selected from the rainfall data and the actual destructive damages of debris flow at 12 points in 7 lines of Gangwon highways. At this time, the rainfall criterion on the probability distribution was divided into an average value and a lower limit value. As a result of the review, it was found that the case of using the lower limit value of the rainfall according to the recurrence intervalwell simulates the situation of actual debris flow hazards.

The Relationship between GMS-5 IR1 Brightness Temperature and AWS Rainfall: A heavy rain event over the mid-western part of Korea for August 5-6, 1998 (GMS-5 IR1 밝기온도와 AWS 강우량의 관계성: 1998년 8월 중서부지역 집중호우 사례)

  • 권태영
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2001
  • The relationship between GMS-5 IR1 brightness temperature (CTT:cloud top temperature) and AWS (automatic weather station) rainfall is investigated on a heavy rain event over the mid-western part of Korea for August 5-6, 1998. It is found that a temporal variability of the heavy rain can be described in detail y the time series of rain area and rain rates over the study area that are calculated from AWS accumulated rainfalls for 15 minutes. A time period of 0030-0430 LST 6 August 1998 is chosen in the time series as a heavy rain period which has relatively small rain area (20~25%) and very strong rain rates(6~9 mm/15 min.) with a good time continuity. In the heavy rain period, CTT of a point and AWS 15-minute rainfall beneath that point are compared. From the comparison, AWS rainfalls are shown to be not closely correlated with CTT. In the range of CTT lower than -5$0^{\circ}C$ where most AWS with rain are distributed, the probability of rain is at most about 30%. However, when the satellite images are shifted by 2~3 pixels southward and 3 pixels westward for the geometric correction of images, AWS rainfalls are shown to be statistically correlated with CTT (correlation coefficient:-0.46). Most AWS with rain are distributed in the much lower CTT range(lower than -58$^{\circ}C$), but there is still not much change in the rain probability. Even though a temporal change of CTT is taken into account, the rain probability amount to at most 50~55% in the same range.