Spatial Information Research

Korea Spatial Information Society (대한공간정보학회)
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Spatial Analysis of Typhoon Genesis Distribution based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Scenario

IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 시나리오 기반 태풍발생 공간분석

  • Lee, Sungsu (Civil engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Ga Young (Civil engineering, Chungbuk National University)
  • Received : 2014.06.03
  • Accepted : 2014.08.22
  • Published : 2014.08.31
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Abstract

Natural disasters of large scale such as typhoon, heat waves and snow storm have recently been increased because of climate change according to global warming which is most likely caused by greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Increase of greenhouse gases concentration has caused the augmentation of earth's surface temperature, which raised the frequency of incidences of extreme weather in northern hemisphere. In this paper, we present spatial analysis of future typhoon genesis based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 scenario, which applied latest carbon dioxide concentration trend. For this analysis, we firstly calculated GPI using RCP 8.5 monthly data during 1982~2100. By spatially comparing the monthly averaged GPIs and typhoon genesis locations of 1982~2010, a probability density distribution(PDF) of the typhoon genesis was estimated. Then, we defined 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI and 0.15GPI based on the GPI ranges which are corresponding to probability densities of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, respectively. Based on the PDF-related GPIs, spatial distributions of probability on the typhoon genesis were estimated for the periods of 1982~2010, 2011~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100. Also, we analyzed area density using historical genesis points and spatial distributions. As the results, Philippines' east area corresponding to region of latitude $10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}$ shows high typhoon genesis probability in future. Using this result, we expect to estimate the potential region of typhoon genesis in the future and to develop the genesis model.

최근 전 세계적으로 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 태풍, 폭염, 폭설등과 같은 자연재해의 피해가 대규모로 확대되고 있다. 근본적으로 지구온난화를 유발하는 가장 큰 원인은 대기 중의 온실가스를 들 수 있으며, 온실가스의 농도 증가로 인해 우리나라가 속해있는 북반구는 점점 더 지구표면온도가 증가하고 있고, 그에 따른 극한 기상 발생률이 크게 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최근 이산화탄소 농도 추세를 반영한 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 미래의 태풍발생의 공간분포를 추정하였다. 공간분포를 추정하기 위해 먼저 RCP 8.5 월 자료를 사용하여 1982~2100년 기간 동안의 태풍발생지수(GPI; Genesis Potential Index)를 계산하였다. 1982~2010년 동안 발생한 태풍의 발생위치정보와 월평균 GPI 값을 이용하여 태풍발생의 확률분포(PDF)를 추정하였으며, PDF의 0.05, 0.1 및 0.15에 해당하는 GPI의 범위를 설정하여 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI 및 0.15GPI로 정의하였다. 이를 바탕으로 1982~2010년, 2011~2040년, 2041~2070년, 2071~2100년의 태풍발생의 공간 확률 분포를 추정 하였으며, 공간 확률 분포와 함께 과거 태풍발생정보를 이용하여 공간밀도를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 미래에 태풍이 발생할 가능성이 높은 지역이 필리핀의 동쪽에 위치한 위도 $10^{\circ}{\sim}20^{\circ}$ 영역으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 추후 미래의 태풍발생 가능지역을 추정하고, 이를 기반으로 태풍의 경로를 추정하는데 활용하여 태풍의 발생 위치에 따라 한반도에 미치는 영향을 추정하는데 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

Keywords

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