• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2B
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• pp.131-139
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• 2009

Recently frequent occurrences of heavy rainfall and increases of rainfall intensity resulted in severe flood damage in Korea. In order to mitigate the vulnerability of flood, it is necessary to estimate proper design rainfalls considering the increasing trend of extreme rainfalls for hydrologic planning and design. This study focused the estimation of design rainfalls in a design target year. Tests of trend indicated that there are 7 sites showing increasing trends among 56 sites which have hourly data more than 30 years in Korea. This study analyzed the relationship between mean of annual maximum rainfalls and parameters of the Gumbel distribution. Based on the relationship, this study estimated the probability density function and design rainfalls in a design target year, and then constructed the rainfall-frequency curve. The proposed method estimated the design rainfalls 6-20% higher than those from the stationary rainfall frequency analysis.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.4B
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• pp.319-328
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• 2009

This study quantified the data by applying the EDA techniques considering the data structure, and the results were then used for the frequency analysis. Although traditional methods based on the method of moments provide very sensitive statistics to the extreme values, the EDA techniques have an advantage of providing very stable statistics with their small variation. For the application of the EDA techniques to the frequency analysis, it is necessary to normalization transform and inverse-transform to conserve the skewness of the raw data. That is, it is necessary to transform the raw data to make the data follow the normal distribution, to estimate the statistics by applying the EDA techniques, and then finally to inverse-transform the statistics of transformed data. These statistics decided are then applied for the frequency analysis with a given probability density function. This study analyzed the annual maxima one hour rainfall data at Seoul and Pohang stations. As a result, it was found that more stable rainfall quantiles, which were also less sensitive to extreme values, could be estimated by applying the EDA techniques. This methodology may be effectively used for the frequency analysis of rainfall at stations with especially high annual variations of rainfall due to climate change, etc.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.4B
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• pp.389-397
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• 2010

This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both Gumbel distribution and trend analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.223-232
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• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.5
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• pp.411-422
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• 2016

Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.325-347
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• 2012

Long-term air and weather data monitored during the period of 2000 to 2009 were analyzed to quantitatively estimate the precipitation scavenging and wind dispersion contributions of ambient $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ in Korea. Both air pollutants and meteorological data had been respectively collected from 120 stations by the Ministry of Environment and from 20 weather stations by the Korea Meteorological Administrations in all parts of Korea. To stochastically identify the relation between a meteorological factor and an air pollutant, we initially defined the SR (scavenging ratio) and the DR (dispersion ratio) to separately calculate the precipitation and wind speed effects on the removal of a specific air pollutant. We could then estimate the OSC (overall scavenging contribution) and the ODC (overall dispersion contribution) with considering sectoral precipitation and wind speed probability density distributions independently. In this study, the SRs for both $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were generally increased with increasing the amounts of precipitation and then the OSCs for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were estimated by 22.3% and 15.7% on an average in Korea, respectively. However, the trend of the DR was quite different from that of SR. The DR for $PM_{10}$ was increased with increasing wind speed up to 2.5 m/s and further the DR for $NO_2$ showed a minimum in the range of $1<WS{\leq}1.5$. The ODCs for $PM_{10}$ and $NO_2$ were estimated by 14.9% and 1.0% in Korea, respectively. Finally, we have also provided an interesting case study observed in Seoul.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.87-101
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• 1990

The purpose of this study is to estimate the flood discharge and runoff volume at a stream by using geomorphologic parameters obtained from the topographic maps following the law of stream classification and ordering by Horton and Strahier. The present model is modified from Cheng' s model which derives the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph. The present model uses the results of Laplace transformation and convolution intergral of probability density function of the travel time at each state. The stream flow velocity parameters are determined as a function of the rainfall intensity, and the effective rainfall is calculated by the SCS method. The total direct runoff volume until the time to peak is estimated by assuming a triangular hydrograph. The model is used to estimate the time to peak, the flood discharge, and the direct runoff at Andong, Imha. Geomchon, and Sunsan basin in the Nakdong River system. The results of the model application are as follows : 1.For each basin, as the rainfall intensity doubles form 1 mm/h to 2 mm/h with the same rainfall duration of 1 hour, the hydrographs show that the runoff volume doubles while the duration of the base flow and the time to peak are the same. This aggrees with the theory of the unit hydrograph. 2.Comparisions of the model predicted and observed values show that small relative errors of 0.44-7.4% of the flood discharge, and 1 hour difference in time to peak except the Geomchon basin which shows 10.32% and 2 hours respectively. 3.When the rainfall intensity is small, the error of flood discharge estimated by using this model is relatively large. The reason of this might be because of introducing the flood velocity concept in the stream flow velocity. 4.Total direct runoff volume until the time to peak estimated by using this model has small relative error comparing with the observed data. 5.The sensitivity analysis of velocity parameters to flood discharge shows that the flood discharge is sensitive to the velocity coefficient while it is insensitive to the ratio of arrival time of moving portion to that of storage portion of a stream and to the ratio of arrival time of stream to that of overland flow.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.853-865
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• 2014

Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.5B
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• pp.449-457
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• 2011

Recently, increasing heavy rainfalls due to climate change and/or variability result in hydro-climatic disasters being accelerated. To cope with the extreme rainfall events in the future, hydrologic frequency analysis is usually used to estimate design rainfalls in a design target year. The rainfall data series applied to the hydrologic frequency analysis is assumed to be stationary. However, recent observations indicate that the data series might not preserve the statistical properties of rainfall in the future. This study incorporated the residual analysis and the hydrologic frequency analysis to estimate design rainfalls in a design target year considering the non-stationarity of rainfall. The residual time series were generated using a linear regression line constructed from the observations. After finding the proper probability density function for the residuals, considering the increasing or decreasing trend, rainfalls quantiles were estimated corresponding to specific design return periods in a design target year. The results from applying the method to 14 gauging stations indicate that the proposed method provides appropriate design rainfalls and reduces the prediction errors compared with the conventional rainfall frequency analysis which assumes that the rainfall data are stationary.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.101-110
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• 2022

In this study, water content tests were performed on various fresh concretes subjected to different binder compostions to review the estimation errors and reliability of water content test methods. Micro-oven drying method, air-meter method, capacitance method and microwave penetration method were used to estimate water content of fresh concrete. Errors in water content estimation were analyzed by each test method. Regardless of the test method of water content, the estimation error was less than 5 %, and in the case of the test using mortar, the error in the estimation value was relatively large. In addition, based on the test results of water content of various concrete, the probability density function in which the estimation error for each test method becomes the population was analyzed. Water content test methods of fresh concrete which using concrete samples showed high estimate reliability of 97 % within the estimation error range of ± 10 kg/m³. On the other hand, the reliability of water content test method using mortar samples was lower.