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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.10.853

Improvement of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Considering Uncertainty of Hydrologic Analysis Process  

Na, Bong-Kil (K-water)
Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Lim, Jeong-Yeul (K-water Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.10, 2014 , pp. 853-865 More about this Journal
Abstract
Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.
Keywords
dam risk analysis; Bayesian regional frequency analysis; Bayesian HEC-1; uncertainty;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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