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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2011.31.5B.449

Non-stationary Rainfall Frequency Analysis Based on Residual Analysis  

Jang, Sun-Woo (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과)
Seo, Lynn (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과)
Kim, Tae-Woong (한양대학교 건설환경공학과)
Ahn, Jae-Hyun (서경대학교 토목공학과)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.31, no.5B, 2011 , pp. 449-457 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently, increasing heavy rainfalls due to climate change and/or variability result in hydro-climatic disasters being accelerated. To cope with the extreme rainfall events in the future, hydrologic frequency analysis is usually used to estimate design rainfalls in a design target year. The rainfall data series applied to the hydrologic frequency analysis is assumed to be stationary. However, recent observations indicate that the data series might not preserve the statistical properties of rainfall in the future. This study incorporated the residual analysis and the hydrologic frequency analysis to estimate design rainfalls in a design target year considering the non-stationarity of rainfall. The residual time series were generated using a linear regression line constructed from the observations. After finding the proper probability density function for the residuals, considering the increasing or decreasing trend, rainfalls quantiles were estimated corresponding to specific design return periods in a design target year. The results from applying the method to 14 gauging stations indicate that the proposed method provides appropriate design rainfalls and reduces the prediction errors compared with the conventional rainfall frequency analysis which assumes that the rainfall data are stationary.
Keywords
residual series; non-stationarity; design rainfall;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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