• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability Score

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Development of the Korean Peninsula-Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (KP-KTG) System Using the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (기상청 고해상도 지역예보모델을 이용한 한반도 영역 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템(한반도-KTG) 개발)

  • Lee, Dan-Bi;Chun, Hye-Yeong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.367-374
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    • 2015
  • Korean Peninsula has high potential for occurrence of aviation turbulence. A Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system focused on the Korean Peninsula, named Korean-Peninsula KTG (KP-KTG) system, is developed using the high resolution (horizontal grid spacing of 1.5 km) Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The KP-KTG system is constructed first by selection of 15 best diagnostics of aviation turbulence using the method of probability of detection (POD) with pilot reports (PIREPs) and the LDAPS analysis data. The 15 best diagnostics are combined into an ensemble KTG predictor, named KP-KTG, with their weighting scores computed by the values of area under curve (AUC) of each diagnostics. The performance of the KP-KTG, represented by AUC, is larger than 0.84 in the recent two years (June 2012~May 2014), which is very good considering relatively small number of PIREPs. The KP-KTG can provide localized turbulence forecasting in Korean Peninsula, and its skill score is as good as that of the operational-KTG conducting in East Asia.

Pre- and Post-Processors of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System (앙상블 유량예측 시스템의 사전 및 사후처리에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Tae-Ho;Kim, Young-Oh;Hong, Il-Pyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.264-268
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    • 2008
  • 미래 발생 가능한 수문 및 기상현상의 예측과정은 지식의 부족과 자연현상의 다양성으로 인해 불확실성을 포함하게 된다. 하지만 많은 예측들은 아직까지 확정적으로 제공되고 있으며, 결과적으로 예측결과의 불확실성 정도를 제공하지 못하고 있다. 앙상블 유량예측(ESP, Ensemble Streamflow Prediction)은 이러한 불확실성을 고려하여 수자원시스템의 의사결정에 있어 중요한 요소 중 하나인 유량예측을 수행할 수 있는 방법이다. 하지만 ESP의 결과는 기상자료, 유역 초기조건, 수문모형의 매개변수, 단순화된 수문모형에 의해 비교적 큰 불확실성을 포함하게 되며, 따라서 실제적인 현업에서의 사용을 위해서는 불확실성 정도를 줄이기 위한 사전 및 사후처리 과정이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 국내에서 활용 가능한 기후 예보자료를 사용하여 앙상블 유량예측에 적용할 수 있는 사전처리 방안들을 검토하고, 국내에서 사후처리를 위해 적용되었던 최적선형 보정기법에 더해 다양한 기법들을 강우유출모형인 TANK모형의 모의결과 보정에 적용하였다. 사전 및 사후처리를 적용한 결과 기상자료와 유량예측과정에 존재하는 불확실성을 저감시키는 것이 가능하였다. 특히 사전 및 사후 처리가 동시에 적용되었을 경우 그 향상 정도가 단순히 각각의 방법에 의한 향상 정도를 합한 것보다 높게 나타날 수 있음이 확인되었다. 사전 및 사후처리를 동시에 적용한 경우 이수기에는 RPS(Ranked Probability Score) 평가방법 내에서 54%를, 홍수기에는 8%를 향상시키는 것이 가능하였다.

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Levels of Conscience and Related Factors among Iranian Oncology Nurses

  • Gorbanzadeh, Behrang;Rahmani, Azad;Mogadassian, Sima;Behshid, Mojhgan;Azadi, Arman;Taghavy, Saied
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.18
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    • pp.8211-8214
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    • 2016
  • Background: Having a conscience is one of the main pre-requisite of providing nursing care. The knowledge regarding levels of conscience among nurses in eastern countries is limited. So, the purpose of this study was to examine the level of conscience and its related factors among Iranian oncology nurses. Materials and Methods: This descriptive-correlational study was conducted in 3 hospitals in Tabriz, Iran. Overall, 68 nurses were selected using a non-probability sampling method. The perceptions of conscience questionnaire was used to identify the levels of conscience among nurses. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 13.0. Results: The mean nurses' level of conscience scores was 72.7. In the authority and asset sub-scales nurses acquired higher scores. The mean of nurses' scores in burden and depending on culture sub-scales were the least. Also, there were no statistical relationship between some demographic characteristics of participants and their total score on the perceptions of conscience questionnaire. Conclusions: According to study findings Iranian nurses had high levels of conscience. However, understanding all the factors that affect nurses' perception of conscience requires further studies.

Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy for Myofascial Pain Syndrome of Upper Trapezius (충격파치료를 이용한 상부 등세모근의 근막통증증후군 치료)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Jung, Kang-Hoon;Park, Young-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) is an effective treatment for myofascial pain syndrome (MPS) of upper trapezius. Methods : Study subject were 20 patients (7 male and 13 female). The patients were evaluated by assessing of pain and function using visual analog scale (VAS) and pressure pain threshold (PPT) and Constant-Murley scale (CMS). Statistical analysis was used paired T-test to know significance probability between pre-test and post-test. Results : There was no statistical significance in the change in PPT. But, VAS scores were significantly improved after ESWT (p<.05). Using the Constant-Murley score, this study showed a significant decrease in pain and a significant increase in range of motion of shoulder (p<.05). Conclusion : These results indicate that extracorporeal shock waves therapy could be considered as an effective and efficient treatment modality for myofascial pain syndrome of upper trapezius.

Impact of Psychological Factors on Marital Satisfaction and Divorce Proneness in Clinical Couples (부부클리닉 방문부부의 심리적 요인이 결혼만족도 및 이혼가능성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kong, Seong-Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.550-560
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study was to investigate the psychological factors that affect marital satisfaction or divorce likelihood in clinical couples. Methods: Clinical couples (n=57) who visited "M" couple clinic participated in the study. Data was collected from September 2005 to June 2006 using a Marital Satisfaction Scale, a Marital Status Inventory, Beck Depression Inventory, Maudsley Obsessional-Compulsive Inventory, and Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory. Results: The couples showed high scores on depression, obsessive-compulsion, personality factors and divorce probability and a low score on marital satisfaction. The wife's obsessive-compulsion was a predictor of her marital satisfaction, and the wife's social introversion and depression, and husband's obsessive-compulsion were predictors of the wife's prospect of divorce. The husband's hypomania and depression were predictors of his marital satisfaction, and there were no predictors of the husband's prospect of divorce. Conclusion: Obsessive-compulsion is a significant factor in a couple's relationship, although previous studies have not been interested in obsessive-compulsion. Divorce likelihood should be evaluated for clinical couples as well as marital satisfaction, because it is more important for divorce prevention. Each spouse who has a psycho logical problem such as depression, obsessive-compulsion, and deviated personality needs individual therapy as well as couple therapy.

A Clinical Research about the Effects of Seunggaltang on Patients with Atopic Dermatitis (승갈탕(升葛湯)을 사용한 아토피 피부염 환자에 대한 임상시험)

  • Shin, Sang-Ho;Kim, Ja-Hye;Kim, Mi;Yoon, Hwa-Jung;Lyu, Sun-Ae;Lee, Seung-Yeon;Lee, Mi-Yeon;Kim, Kyu-Kon;Ko, Woo-Shin
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.20 no.2 s.33
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    • pp.199-212
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    • 2007
  • Objective : The purpose of this clinical research was to investigate the effects of Seunggaltang on patients with atopic dermatitis. Methods : Thirteen patients were treated with Seunggaltang and ten patients were treated with placebo for 8 weeks. We observed skin humidity, skin sebum,, transepidermal water loss, skin melanin, skin erythema, total IgE class and number of allergen. And Clinic Index of Atopic Dermatitis(Extent, Intensity, Subjective symptoms, Total score) was used to evaluate the effects of Seunggaltang. Statistical analysis was performed by using paired sample T-test. Statistical significance was achieved if the probability was less than 5%(P<0.05). The result were as follows : 1. Statistically, Seunggaltang didn't showed significant effect on skin humidity, skin sebum, skin transepidermal water loss, skin melanin and skin erythema. 2. Statistically, Seunggaltang showed significant effect on Clinic Index of atopic dermatitis. 3. Statistically, Seunggaltang didn't showed significant effect on total IgE class and number of allergen. 4. Before and after treatment, the results of blood test and urinalysis were normal. Conclusion : We speculate that Seunggaltang has some therapeutic effects in mitigating the symptoms of atopic dermatitis.

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Development and Effectiveness of a Spiritual Care Education Program for Nursing Students - Based on the ASSET Model (간호대학생의 영적간호교육프로그램의 개발 및 효과)

  • Chung, Mi-Ja;Eun, Young
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.673-683
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop a spiritual care education program (SCEP) for nursing students to help increase their awareness of the essence of spirituality in care so as to enable them to promote spiritual well-being and spiritual care competence. Methods: The participants were assigned to an experimental group (n=42) or a control group (n=39). From August to October 2009, the experimental group participated in the SCEP, which were held 2 hours a week for 6 weeks. The data were analyzed using ${\chi}^2$-test, Fisher's exact probability test, paired t-test, t-test with the SPSS WIN 17.0 statistics program. Results: The experimental group had a higher mean score for spirituality, spiritual well-being and spiritual care competence than the control group. Significant differences were found between the experimental group and the control group. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that the SCEP was effective in improving spirituality, spiritual well-being and spiritual care competence for nursing students.

Modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic for Credit Evaluation (신용평가를 위한 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 수정통계량)

  • Hong, C.S.;Bang, G.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1065-1075
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    • 2008
  • For the model validation of credit rating models, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) statistic has been widely used as a testing method of discriminatory power from the probabilities of default for default and non-default. For the credit rating works, K-S statistics are to test two identical distribution functions which are partitioned from a distribution. In this paper under the assumption that the distribution is known, modified K-S statistic which is formulated by using known distributions is proposed and compared K-S statistic.

The Unified Framework for AUC Maximizer

  • Jun, Jong-Jun;Kim, Yong-Dai;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Choi, Ho-Sik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.1005-1012
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    • 2009
  • The area under the curve(AUC) is commonly used as a measure of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve which displays the performance of a set of binary classifiers for all feasible ratios of the costs associated with true positive rate(TPR) and false positive rate(FPR). In the bipartite ranking problem where one has to compare two different observations and decide which one is "better", the AUC measures the quantity that ranking score of a randomly chosen sample in one class is larger than that of a randomly chosen sample in the other class and hence, the function which maximizes an AUC of bipartite ranking problem is different to the function which maximizes (minimizes) accuracy (misclassification error rate) of binary classification problem. In this paper, we develop a way to construct the unified framework for AUC maximizer including support vector machines based on maximizing large margin and logistic regression based on estimating posterior probability. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm for the proposed unified framework. Numerical results show that the propose unified framework can treat various methodologies successfully.

Effect of Horse Riding on Balancing Ability in Children with Cerebral Palsy

  • Kang, Ok-Deuk;Kang, Min-Soo;Kang, An-Na
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.227-231
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effect of a horse riding program on balancing ability in children with cerebral palsy. Eleven children (five males and six females) diagnosed with cerebral palsy participated. The horse riding exercises (walking and trotting) were conducted twice per week for 30 minutes during 24 weeks. Balancing ability was measured three times at pre, mid, and post-test using an air pad by the same physical therapist. The data were analyzed using a two-way repeated-measures analysis of covariance with time (0, 12, and 24 weeks) using SPSS version 18.0. A comparison of horse riding between patients with hemiplegia and paraplegia was conducted with the Willcoxon signed-ranktest at a predetermined probability rate of 5%. The results showed a significant increase in balancing ability after horse riding than that before horse riding (p<0.01). The average balancing score increased greater in males ($54.59{\pm}84.05$) than that in females ($27.84{\pm}12.67$) after the horse riding exercise program compared to that before the program (p < 0.05). Thus, horse riding exercise was considered an effective to improve balance in children with cerebral palsy. These results provide useful basic data for horse riding for the disabled.