• Water for future
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.129-139
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• 1996

It is very important to select appropriate distributions for hydrological data in planning and designing hydraulic structures. Also, it is necessary to check whether the selected distribution reproduces the statistical characteristics of the real data. In this study, the parameters of the two- and three-parameter gamma, two- and three-parameter lognormal, Gumbel, two- and three-parameter log-Gumbel, GEV, log-Pearsonn type III, two- and three-parameter Weibull, four- and five-parameter Wakeby distributions were estimated for the rainfall data of 22 sites in Korea with 7 different durations based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. And the validity conditions were checked for the estimated parameters. The separation effect for each distribution was examined throught 10,000 simulations using the estimated parameters. As results, the separation effect was the smallest: log-Pearson type III for moment method, log-Pearson type III and GEV for probability weighted moment method, and GEV for maximum likelihood method. However, it is large for the two-parameter distributions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.465-475
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• 2020

I-D-F curves were induced by Box-Cox transformation using rainfall data from five major cities in Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, and Gwangju, as well as from Sancheong (South Gyeongsang province) and Yeongcheon (North Gyeongsang province) stations. The practicality of the Box-Cox transformation is more scalable than the traditional method of frequency analysis in terms of applicability because it is available even if the analysis data are insufficient to perform general frequency analysis and do not produce an appropriate probability density function. For the case in which rainfall data for the entire period (10-1440 minutes) and short-term period (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes) at the foregoing 7 stations are omitted, there was a relative error of -23.0 % to 14.7 % at a duration of 10 to 60 minutes below the 100-year frequency. Accordingly, rainfall analysis requires inducing I-D-F curves, including for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), and if rainfall data are omitted for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), it is necessary to increase the existing margin rate depending on the point in order to ensure the safe design of small-scale hydraulic structures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.97-107
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• 2011

For the purpose of enhancing usability of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), the quantitative precipitation prediction scheme was suggested. In this research, precipitation by leading time was predicted using 3-hour rainfall accumulation by meso-scale numerical weather model and AWS (Automatic Weather Station), precipitation water and relative humidity observed by atmospheric sounding station, probability of rainfall occurrence by leading time in June and July, 2001 and August, 2002. Considering the nonlinear process of ranfall producing mechanism, the ANN (Artificial Neural Network) that is useful in nonlinear fitting between rainfall and the other atmospheric variables. The feedforward multi-layer perceptron was used for neural network structure, and the nonlinear bipolaractivation function was used for neural network training for converting negative rainfall into no rain value. The ANN simulated rainfall was validated by leading time using Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (COE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CORR). As a result, the 3 hour rainfall accumulation basis shows that the COE of the areal mean of the Korean peninsula was improved from -0.04 to 0.31 for the 12 hr leading time, -0.04 to 0.38 for the 24 hr leading time, -0.03 to 0.33 for the 36 hr leading time, and -0.05 to 0.27 for the 48 hr leading time.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.441-447
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• 1997

Rainfall observation using rain gage network or satellites includes the sampling error depending on the observation methods or plans. For example, the sampling using rain gages is continuous in time but discontinuous in space, which is nothing but the source of the sampling error. The sampling using satellites is the reverse case that continuous in space and discontinuous in time. The sampling error may be quantified by use of the temporal-spatial characteristics of rainfall and the sampling design. One of recent works on this problem was done by North and Nakamoto (1989), who derived a formulation for estimating the sampling error based on the temporal-spatial rainfall spectrum and the design scheme. The formula enables us to design an optimal rain gage network or a satellite operation plan providing the statistical characteristics of rainfall. In this paper the formula is reviewed and applied for the sampling error problems using several multi-dimensional precipitation models. The results show the limitation of the formulation, which cannot distinguish the model difference in case the model parameters can reproduce similar second order statistics of rainfall. The limitation can be improved by developing a new way to consider the higher order statistics, and eventually the probability density function (PDF) of rainfall.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.379-387
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• 1997

This study involves field monitoring of hydrlolgic characteristics of paddy fields under common irrigation practice, statistical analysis of maximum retention storage, determination of CNs for antecedent moisture conditions. Curve numbers were estimated from observed rainfall-runoff relationship of two years data. The estimated CN for AMC-II was 78, and the CNs for AMC-I and II were 63 and 88, respectively. A water balance model was used to find the effect of ridge height changes and initial ponding depth in paddy fields on runoff. The probability distribution of initial ponding depth was also investigated. The initial ponding depth follows normal probability distribution. Initial ponding depth corresponding 10%, 50%, and 90% probability were considered to be equivalent to AMC-I, AMC-II, and AMC-III, respectively. Long-term runoff data from paddy fields were simulated by a water balance model using recorded climate data, ridge height and estimated initial ponding depth derived from probability distribution. The estimated CNs using simulated runoff were 70, 79, and 89 for CN-I, CN-II, and CN-III, respectively.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.21-47
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• 2013

The aim is to analysis landslide vulnerability in Inje, Korea, using GCI(Geospatial Correlative Integration) and probability rainfalls based on geographic information system (GIS). In order to achieve this goal, identified indicators influencing landslides based on literature review. We include indicators of exposure to climate(rainfall probability), sensitivity(slope, aspect, curvature, geology, topography, soil drainage, soil material, soil thickness and soil texture) and adaptive capacity(timber diameter, timber type, timber density and timber age). All data were collected, processed, and compiled in a spatial database using GIS. Karisan-ri that had experienced 470 landslides by Typhoon Ewinia in 2006 was selected for analysis and verification. The 50% of landslide data were randomly selected to use as training data, while the other 50% being used for verification. The probability of landslides for target years (1 year, 3 years, 10 years, 50 years, and 100 years) was calculated assuming that landslides are triggered by 3-day cumulative rainfalls of 449 mm. Results show that number of slope has comparatively strong influence on landslide damage. And inclination of $25{\sim}30^{\circ}C$, the highest correlation landslide. Improved previous landslide vulnerability methodology by adopting GCI. Also, vulnerability map provides meaningful information for decision makers regarding priority areas for implementing landslide mitigation policies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.15-27
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• 2018

Parametric method of flood frequency analysis involves fitting of a probability distribution to observed flood data. When record length at a given site is relatively shorter and hard to apply the asymptotic theory, an alternative distribution to the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is often used. In this study, we consider the beta-P distribution (BPD) as an alternative to the GEV and other well-known distributions for modeling extreme events of small or moderate samples as well as highly skewed or heavy tailed data. The L-moments ratio diagram shows that special cases of the BPD include the generalized logistic, three-parameter log-normal, and GEV distributions. To estimate the parameters in the distribution, the method of moments, L-moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods are considered. A Monte-Carlo study is then conducted to compare these three estimation methods. Our result suggests that the L-moments estimator works better than the other estimators for this model of small or moderate samples. Two applications to the annual maximum stream flow of Colorado and the rainfall data from cloud seeding experiments in Southern Florida are reported to show the usefulness of the BPD for modeling hydrologic events. In these examples, BPD turns out to work better than $beta-{\kappa}$, Gumbel, and GEV distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.823-823
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• 2012

최근 우리나라는 아열대성 기후로 변함에 따라 예측 불가능한 강우 형태가 자주 발생하고 있으며, 강우량의 경우 과거에는 발생하지 않았던 고강도의 강우가 빈번하게 발생하고 있는 실정이다. 그러나 기존 농경지 배수시설의 경우 고강도의 강우에 부족한 기준을 가지고 있어 침수에 불리한 구조를 가지고 있다. 또한, 국가경제발전과 국민 식생활 패턴 변화 등으로 논(수도작) 위주에서 원예 특용작물 등 밭작물 중심으로의 작부체계로 변화함에 따라 적정한 배수체계 개선방안이 요구된다. 따라서 현행 설계기준 강우보다 많은 강우가 단시간에 내리는 국지적 집중호우가 발생하여 배수시설물의 배제 능력 부족으로 인한 침수, 배수불량 등의 농경지 침수피해를 대비할 수 있는 배수설계기준이 필요한 상황으로, 기존 배수시설 설계기준에 대한 빈도별 계획강수량, 계획홍수량, 계획홍수위 등을 현재까지의 수문기상자료로 재검토하여 강우패턴변화를 고려한 적정 설계기준(안)을 평가하고 재해 대비 능력 부족한 농업기반시설(배수장, 배수문, 배수로 등)의 효율적인 관리 방안을 마련하겠다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.134-134
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• 2021

Precipitation is a crucial component of water cycle and play a key role in hydrological processes. Traditionally, gauge-based precipitation is the main method to achieve high accuracy of rainfall estimation, but its distribution is sparsely in mountainous areas. Recently, satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) provide grid-based precipitation with spatio-temporal variability, but SPPs contain a lot of uncertainty in estimated precipitation, and the spatial resolution quite coarse. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to generate new grid-based daily precipitation using Automatic weather system (AWS) in Korea and multiple SPPs(i.e. CHIRPSv2, CMORPH, GSMaP, TRMMv7) during the period of 2003-2017. And this study used a machine learning based Random Forest (RF) model for generating new merging precipitation. In addition, several statistical linear merging methods are used to compare with the results of the RF model. In order to investigate the efficiency of RF, observed data from 64 observed Automated Synoptic Observation System (ASOS) were collected to evaluate the accuracy of the products through Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and critical success index (CSI). As a result, the new precipitation generated through the random forest model showed higher accuracy than each satellite rainfall product and spatio-temporal variability was better reflected than other statistical merging methods. Therefore, a random forest-based ensemble satellite precipitation product can be efficiently used for hydrological simulations in ungauged basins such as the Mekong River.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.339-339
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• 2022

본 연구는 최신 강우 자료를 사용하여 자료의 기간을 네 가지 경우로 나누어 기간별 확률강우량을 산정하고 각 기간에 따른 확률강우량의 변화 특성을 파악하고자 하였다. 2020년을 기준으로 시강우 자료 관측기간이 40년 이상이 되는 62개 국내 강우관측소를 연구 대상으로 선정하였으며, 지점별 강우자료의 분석 기간은 최근 10년, 20년, 30년, 40년의 경우로 나누어 분석하였다. 분석기간에 따른 확률강우량은 Gumbel 분포형에 확률가중모멘트법을 적용하여 산정하였고, 이를 연강수량과 함께 공간적으로 분포시킨 결과, 연강수량의 분포에서 나타나지 않는 변화들이 확률강우량의 분포에서 명확히 드러나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 지속기간의 시간이 증가되고 재현기간이 커질수록 경기 북부와 전라남북도 경계 및 영동지방의 확률강우량이 증가하는 경향을 보였고, 최근 40년과 비교하였을 경우, 최근 10년, 20년, 30년 확률강우량의 변화량 결과에서 전라남도 지역은 지속기간 길어질수록 변화 양상이 뚜렷하게 보였으며, 강원도 지역은 최근 10년, 20년 변화량이 상이하게 나타났다. 기간에 따라 확률강우량의 변화량이 크거나 작은 대표 지역들을 선정하여 기간별 확률강우량의 IDF 곡선을 도시하여 비교 및 분석하였다.