• Atmosphere
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.141-154
• /
• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.36-41
• /
• 2013

Decision-making is to extract information that can be executed in the future, it refers to the process of discovering a new data model that is induced in the data. In other words, it is to find out the information to peel off to find the vein to catch the relationship between the hidden patterns in data. The information found here, is a process of finding the relationship between the useful patterns by applying modeling techniques and sophisticated statistical analysis of the data. It is called data mining which is a key technology for marketing database. Therefore, research for cluster analysis of the current is performed actively, which is capable of extracting information on the basis of the large data set without a clear criterion. The EM and K-means methods are used a lot in particular, how the result values of evaluating are come out in experiments, which are depending on the size of the data by the type of distance-based and probability-based data analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• 제49권4호
• /
• pp.467-482
• /
• 2021

Purpose: The main theme of this study is to determine the optimal control limit of conditional variance investigation by mathematical approach. According to the determination approach of control limit presented in this study, it is possible with only one parameter to calculate the control limit necessary for budgeting control system or standard costing system, in which the limit could not be set in advance, that's why it has the advantage of high practical application. Methods: This study followed the analytical methodology in terms of the decision model of information economics, Bayesian probability theory and Taguchi's quality loss function concept. Results: The function suggested by this study is as follows; ${\delta}{\leq}\frac{3}{2}(k+1)+\frac{2}{\frac{3}{2}(k+1)+\sqrt{\{\frac{3}{2}(k+1)\}^2}+4$ Conclusion: The results of this study will be able to contribute not only in practice of variance investigation requiring in the standard costing and budgeting system, but also in all fields dealing with variance investigation differences, for example, intangible services quality control that are difficult to specify tolerances (control limit) unlike tangible product, and internal information system audits where materiality standards cannot be specified unlike external accounting audits.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
• /
• 제58권7호
• /
• pp.92-103
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this study was to subdivide the shoes market in Korea and to evaluate the size and competitive strength of each segment. In order to implement the purpose of this study, the data of 300 respondents were analyzed using CBC(Choice-Based Conjoint measurement) and mixture model. The part-worth utilities were then used to predict the impact of price change on the choice probability using the legit model. As a result, the mixture model showed the optimal segments number and the shoes market in Korea was divided into 4 segments. Each segment was identified by distinctive characteristics such as brands, price and demand for comfortable shoes. Also, as a result of grasping the competitive structure and the competitive strength by sub-markets, one group was sensitive to price according to each competitive situation, whereby the choice probability was greatly influenced, and the other group on the contrary. This study made it clear that discrimination between brands whose profits Increase sharply if price is lowered and brands whose profits do not increase even if price is lowered can help brand managers with their decision-making on price lowering.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 한국철도학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.1-5
• /
• 2009

Recently, as a method of green-development and reduction of carbon dioxide emission, increased interest has been focused on a railway. Furthermore, an intensive study has been processed on capabilities of maintenance activities, economic efficiency of maintenance on rail structure and a design of railway structure as well as the development of materials. The purpose of this paper is to develop a deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge due to timely changes and maintenance activities. Typically, there is definite difference between maintained bridges and non-maintained bridges. As a result of proper maintenance activity, a life time of a structure can be enhanced. In this study, we will research and analyze structures with ongoing maintenance. We will also process same procedures on structures without maintenance. Therefore, we can establish the significant role in a conditional change of a structure. Based on a study, we accomplish the development of a condition-deteriorated model. To develop deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge, We apply Marcov Theory and develop a transition probability to show the life time of bridge. This study will provide a great benefit to decision making for maintenance activities on the railway bridges for future.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 2019

This paper presents a new method for construction of a static obstacle map. A static obstacle is important since it is utilized to path planning and decision. Several established approaches generate static obstacle map by grid method and counting algorithm. However, these approaches are occasionally ineffective since the density of LiDAR layer is low. Our approach solved this problem by applying probability theory. First, we converted all LiDAR point to Gaussian distribution to considers an uncertainty of LiDAR point. This Gaussian distribution represents likelihood of obstacle. Second, we modeled dynamic transition of a static obstacle map by adopting the Hidden Markov Model. Due to the dynamic characteristics of the vehicle in relation to the conditions of the next stage only, a more accurate map of the obstacles can be obtained using the Hidden Markov Model. Experimental data obtained from test driving demonstrates that our approach is suitable for mapping static obstacles. In addition, this result shows that our algorithm has an advantage in estimating not only static obstacles but also dynamic characteristics of moving target such as driving vehicles.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
• /
• 제28권2호
• /
• pp.89-95
• /
• 2019

This paper introduces the simulation concepts and technical approach of underwater weapon system performance analysis simulator, especially focused on probabilistic target detection concepts. We calculated the signal excess (SE) value using SONAR equation, then derived the probability density function(PDF) for target presence($H_1$) or absence($H_0$) cases, respectively. With the Neyman-Pearson detector criterion, we got the probability of detection($P_D$) while satisfying the given probability of false alarm($P_{FA}$). At every instance of simulation, target detection is decided in the probabilistic perspective. With the proposed detection implementation, we improved the model fidelity so that it could support the tactical decision during the operation.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
• /
• 제12B권4호
• /
• pp.437-442
• /
• 2005

For the purpose of speaker normalization in speaker independent speech recognition systems, experiments are conducted on a method based on Gaussian mixture model(GMM). The method, which is an improvement of the previous study based on vector quantizer, consists of modeling the probability distribution of canonical feature vectors by a GMM with an appropriate number of clusters, and of estimating the warp factor of a test speaker by making use of the obtained probabilistic model. The purpose of this study is twofold: improving the existing ML based methods, and comparing the performance of what is called 'soft decision' method with that of the previous study based on vector quantizer. The effectiveness of the proposed method is investigated by recognition experiments on the TIMIT corpus. The experimental results showed that a little improvement could be obtained tv adjusting the number of clusters in GMM appropriately.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• 제29권1호
• /
• pp.76-81
• /
• 2010

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to improve the performance of a statistical model-based voice activity detection (VAD) which is based on the second-order conditional maximum a posteriori (CMAP). In our approach, the VAD decision rule is expressed as the geometric mean of likelihood ratios (LRs) based on adapted threshold according to the speech presence probability conditioned on both the current observation and the speech activity decisions in the pervious two frames. Experimental results show that the proposed approach yields better results compared to the statistical model-based and the CMAP-based VAD using the LR test.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• 제40권3호
• /
• pp.295-306
• /
• 2007

In this study, we predicted areas vulnerable to ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine at Sam-cheok City in Korea using a probability (frequency ratio) model with Geographic Information System (GIS). To extract the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from a topographical map, geo-logical map, mining tunnel map, land characteristic map, and borehole data on the study area including subsidence sites surveyed in 2000. Eight major factors were extracted from the spatial analysis and the probability analysis of the surveyed ground subsidence sites. We have calculated the decision coefficient ($R^2$) to find out the relationship between eight factors and the occurrence of ground subsidence. The frequency ratio model was applied to deter-mine each factor's relative rating, then the ratings were overlaid for ground subsidence hazard mapping. The ground subsidence hazard map was then verified and compared with the surveyed ground subsidence sites. The results of verification showed high accuracy of 96.05% between the predicted hazard map and the actual ground subsidence sites. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near abandoned underground coal mine would be possible with a frequency ratio model and a GIS.