• MALSORI
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• no.45
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• pp.117-126
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• 2003

Decision tree-based state tying has been proposed in recent years as the most popular approach for clustering the states of context-dependent hidden Markov model-based speech recognition. The aims of state tying is to reduce the number of free parameters and predict state probability distributions of unseen models. But, when doing state tying, the size of a decision tree is very important for word independent recognition. In this paper, we try to construct optimized decision tree based on the average of feature vectors in state pool and the number of seen modes. We observed that the proposed optimal decision tree is effective in predicting the state probability distribution of unseen models.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-43
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• 2010

This paper presents a method for the estimation and analysis of the economic value of weather forecasts for CRM decision-making problems in the leisure industry. Value is calculated in terms of the customer's satisfaction returned from the user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is itself represented by a customer's satisfaction ratio model. The decision is assessed by a modified cost-loss model to consider the customer's satisfaction instead of the loss or cost. Site-specific probability and deterministic forecasts, each of which is provided in Korea and China, are applied to generate and analyze the optimal decisions. The application results demonstrate that probability forecasts have greater value than deterministic forecasts, provided that the users can locate the optimal decision threshold. This paper also presents the optimal decision strategy for specific customers with a variety of satisfaction patterns.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.544-550
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• 2009

To analyze the threat decision performance of MWR(Missile Warning Radar) give analysis on condition that we decide the effective threat using the POC(Probability of Over Countermeasure)/PUC(Probability of Under Countermeasure). Thus, we execute the simulation using the Monte-Carlo method to analyze effect, but the execution time of simulation took longer than we expected. In this paper, the effect analysis is proposed using the probability model to reduce the execution time of simulation. We present the setting method of parameter for probability model and the effect analysis result of MWR using the simulation. Also, we present the comparison result of simulation execution time for Monte-Carlo and probability model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.29-36
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• 2019

The purpose of this study was to analyze affecting factors to consider and make decision on the urban-to-rural migrants using survey data. In the consideration model of urban-to-rural migrants, it was found that the more interest in "urban-to-rural migrants concern" was, the higher probability to consider about urban-to-rural migrants. The lower the age and income level, the higher probability to consider about the urban-to-rural migrants. In the decision making model of urban-to-rural migrants, the more interest in "urban-to-rural migrants concern" was, the higher probability to decision making of urban-to-rural migrants. The higher of stable pension income and the lower of the expected living cost, the higher probability of decision on urban-to-rural migrants. The results of this analysis show that it is necessary to continuous education to increase "interests and information about rural areas", and A number of safeguards are needed to ensure stable income after urban-to-rural migrants to increase the population of the urban-to-rural migrants.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.8
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• pp.2941-2959
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• 2022

The fire brigade non-suppression probability model is a major factor that should be considered in evaluating fire-induced risk through fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and also uncertainty is a critical consideration in support of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) fire protection decision-making. This study developed an optimal integrated probabilistic fire brigade non-suppression model considering uncertainty of parameters based on the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach on electrical fire which is one of the most risk significant contributors. The result shows that the log-normal probability model with a location parameter (µ) of 2.063 and a scale parameter (σ) of 1.879 is best fitting to the actual fire experience data. It gives optimal model adequacy performance with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of -1601.766, residual sum of squares (RSS) of 2.51E-04, and mean squared error (MSE) of 2.08E-06. This optimal log-normal model shows the better performance of the model adequacy than the exponential probability model suggested in the current fire PRA methodology, with a decrease of 17.3% in BIC, 85.3% in RSS, and 85.3% in MSE. The outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to the improvement and securement of fire PRA realism in the support of decision-making for RIPB fire protection programs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.63-69
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• 1981

As enterprises are getting bigger and bigger and more competecious, an engineering economy for the maximization of profit based on basic theory must be considered. This thesis present dynamic computer model for the decision which controls complicated and various man- machine system optimally. This model occur in general stage can be adaptable to every kind of enterprises. So, any one who has no expert knowledge is able to get the optimal solution. And decision tree used in this paper can be applied in every kinds of academic circles as well as whole the industrial world. This paper studied optimal management of engineering project based upon basic theory of engineering economy. It introduces and functionizes the variables which generalize every possible elements, set up a model in order to find out the variable which maximize the calculated value among many other variables. And the selected values ate used as decision- marking variables for the optimal management of engineering projects. It found out some problem of this model. They are : 1. In some kinds of man-machine system it refers to Probability, but other case, it depends on only experimental probability. 2. Unless decision making process (decision tree) goes on, this model can not be applied. So these cases, this paper says, can be solved by adapting finite decision tree which is analyzed by using the same technic as those in product introduction problem. And this paper set up the computer model in order to control every procedure quickly and optimally, using Fortran IV.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.129-137
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• 2017

In this study, the prediction of landslide probability was performed to the study area located in ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ area of Muan-gun, Jeonnam Province around Honam railway using the computer program SHAPP ver 1.0 developed by a decision tree model. The soil samples were collected at total 8 points, and soil tests were performed to measure soil properties. The thematic maps of soil properties such as coefficient of permeability and void ratio were made on the basis of soil test results. The slope angle analysis of topography was performed using a digital map. As the prediction result of landslide probability, 435 cells among total 15,552 cells were predicted to be in the event of landslides. Therefore, the predicted area of occurring landslides may be $43,500m^2$ because the analyzed cell size was $10m{\times}10m$.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.605-616
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• 2000

Three primary interests frequently raised by mortgage companies are introduced and the corresponding statistical approaches for the default probability in mortgage companies are examined. Statistical models considered in this paper are time series, logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and discrete time models. Usage of the models is illustrated using an artificially modified data set and the corresponding models are evaluated in appropriate manners.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.33 no.10
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• pp.381-386
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• 1984

This paper deals with the microcomputer realization of EMG pattern recognition system which provides identification of motion commands from the EMG signals for the on-line control of a prosthetic arm. A probabilistic model of pattern is formulated in the feature space of integral absolute value(IAV) to describe the relation between a motion command and the location of corresponding pattern. This model enables the derivation of sample density function of a command in the feature space of IAV. Classification is caried out through the multiclass sequential decision process, where the decision rule and the stopping rule of the process are designed by using the simple mathematical formulas defined as the likelihood probability and the decision measure, respectively. Some floating point algorithms such as addition, multiplication, division, square root and exponential function are developed for calculating the probability density functions and the decision measure. Only six primitive motions and one no motion are incorporated in this paper.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.602-617
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• 2014

The performance of a cognitive radio network (CRN) solely depends on how precisely the secondary users can sense the presence or absence of primary users. The incorporation of a spatial false alarm makes deriving the probability of a correct decision a cumbersome task. Previous literature performed this task for the case of a received signal under a Normal probability density function case. In this paper we enhance the previous work, including the impact of carrier frequency, the gain of antennas on both sides, and antenna heights so as to observe the robustness against noise and interference and to make the correct decision of detection. Three small scale fading channels: Rayleigh, Normal, and Weibull were considered to get the real scenario of a CRN in an urban area. The incorporation of a maximal-ratio combining and selection combing with a variation of the number of received antennas have also been studied in order to achieve the correct decision of spectral sensing, so as to serve the cognitive users. Finally, we applied the above concept to a traffic model of the CRN, which we based on a two-dimensional state transition chain.