레저산업의 고객관계관리 문제에서 기상예보의 정보가치를 최대화시키는 의사결정전략 분석

A Decision-making Strategy to Maximize the Information Value of Weather Forecasts in a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Problem of the Leisure Industry

  • 투고 : 2009.11.13
  • 심사 : 2009.12.30
  • 발행 : 2010.03.31

초록

This paper presents a method for the estimation and analysis of the economic value of weather forecasts for CRM decision-making problems in the leisure industry. Value is calculated in terms of the customer's satisfaction returned from the user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is itself represented by a customer's satisfaction ratio model. The decision is assessed by a modified cost-loss model to consider the customer's satisfaction instead of the loss or cost. Site-specific probability and deterministic forecasts, each of which is provided in Korea and China, are applied to generate and analyze the optimal decisions. The application results demonstrate that probability forecasts have greater value than deterministic forecasts, provided that the users can locate the optimal decision threshold. This paper also presents the optimal decision strategy for specific customers with a variety of satisfaction patterns.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Epstein, E.S. and A.H. Murphy, "Use and value of multiple-period forecasts in a dynamic model of the cost-loss ratio situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.116 (1988), pp.46-761.
  2. Jolliffe, I.T. and D.B. Stephenson, Forecast Verification:A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, John Wiley and Sons, 2003.
  3. Katz, R.W., "Dynamic cost-loss ratio decision- making model with an autocorrelated climate variable," Journal of Climate, Vol.6 (1993), pp.151-160. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0151:DCLRDM>2.0.CO;2
  4. Katz, R.W. and A.H. Murphy, "Quality/value relationship for imperfect weather forecasts in a prototype multistage decisionmaking model," Weather Forecast, Vol.8 (1990), pp.75-86.
  5. Katz, R.W. and A.H. Murphy, Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
  6. Lee, K-K. and J-W. Lee, "The economic value of weather forecasts for decisionmaking problems in the profit/loss situation," Meteorological Applications, Vol.14 (2007), pp.455-463. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.44
  7. Murphy, A.H., "Decision-making models in the cost-loss ratio situation and measures of the value of probability forecasts," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.104(1976), pp. 1058-1065. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<1058:DMMITC>2.0.CO;2
  8. Murphy, A.H., "The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.105(1977), pp.803-816. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:TVOCCA>2.0.CO;2
  9. Murphy, A.H., "Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized model of the cost-loss ratio situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.113(1985), pp.362-369. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0362:DMATVO>2.0.CO;2
  10. Murphy, A.H., R.W. Katz, R.L. Winkler, and W-R. Hsu, " Repetitive decision making and the value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation:a dynamic model," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.113(1985), pp.801-813. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0801:RDMATV>2.0.CO;2
  11. Murphy, A.H. and R.L. Winkler, "A general framework for forecast verification," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.115(1987), pp.1330-1338. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2
  12. Murphy, A.H. and Q. Ye, "Optimal decision making and the value of information in a time-dependent version of the cost-loss ratio situation," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.118(1990), pp.939-949. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<0939:ODMATV>2.0.CO;2
  13. Murphy, A.H. and D.S. Wilks, "A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast verification:precipitation probability forecasts," Weather Forecasting, Vol. 13(1998), pp.795-810. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0795:ACSOTU>2.0.CO;2
  14. Mylne, K.R., "Decision-making from probability forecasts based on forecast value," Meteorological Applications, Vol.9(2002), pp.307-315. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482702003043
  15. Stewart, T.R., R. Pielke and R. Nath, "Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts- lessons from a case study," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85(2004), pp.223-235. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-2-223
  16. Thornes, J.E., "How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products," Meteorological Applications, Vol.8(2001), pp.307-314. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701003061
  17. Thompson, J.C., "On the operational deficiencies in categorical weather forecasts," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.33(1952), pp.223-226.
  18. Thompson, J.C. and G.W. Brier, "The economic utility of weather forecasts," Monthly Weather Review, Vol.83(1955), pp.249- 254. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1955)083<0249:TEUOWF>2.0.CO;2
  19. Wilks, D.S., "A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts," Meteorological Applications, Vol.8(2001), pp. 209-219. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482701002092
  20. Wright, P., "The harassed decision maker :time pressures, distractions, and the use of evidence," Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol.59(1974), pp.555-561. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0037186
  21. Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson and K. Mylne, "The economic value of ensemble- based weather forecasts," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.83(2002), pp.73-83. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0073:TEVOEB>2.3.CO;2