• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.7-14
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• 2002

In power system study, relibility assessment has been an important topic during past several decards because sudden power interruption can bring about enormous economic loss. although the size of a substation is smaller than that of generation system or transmission system, switching actions after fault(s) make reliability assessment of substation rather complex situations such as switching actions easily and permit various probability distributions in describing substation elements. Despite this ability of Monte Carlo simulation, one-parameter exponential distribution is still popular in this reliability assessment. This paper examines the characteristics of several two-parameter probability distributions, and offers new parameter decision rule based on average and variance of the target to be modelled. In case study, this paper shows the profits by using Weibull distribution which is one of two-parameter probabilistic distributions instead of exponential one.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.597-608
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a probability distribution of the burst pressure of API 5L X65 pipes for the reliability assessment of corroded gas pipelines. Methods: Corrosion is a major cause of weakening the residual strength of the pipe. The mean residual strength on the corrosion defect can be obtained using the burst pressure code. However, in order to obtain the pipe reliability, a probability distribution of the burst pressure should be provided. This study is concerned with estimating the burst pressure distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. A response surface method is employed to represent the distribution parameter as a model of the corrosion defect size. Results: The experimental results suggest that the normal or Weibull distribution should be suitable as the probability distribution of the burst pressure. In particular, it was shown that the probability distribution parameters can be well predicted by using the depth and length of the corrosion defect. Conclusion: Given a corrosion defect on the pipe, its corresponding burst pressure distribution can be provided at instant. Subsequently, a reliability assessment of the pipe is conducted as well.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.35 no.9
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• pp.729-733
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• 2011

The maritime risk assessment is important not only to evaluate the safety level of the ports and waterways but also to reduce potential maritime accidents at sea in terms of the proactive measures of the maritime accidents. In this paper, the collision risk assessment in Mokpo waterways has been carried out based on the IALA recommended model, IWRAP. To evaluate the accident probabilities in Mokpo waterways, all data of vessels were collected from AIS and Radar observations data and the computer simulations were carried out. To assess the risk on the traffic, the scenario-base approach has been applied to the Mokpo waterway by using the maritime accident statics over the past 5 years.

• Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.40-45
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• 2000

Presented are the estimation of the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and reliability assessment of structures by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path. The material resistance is treated as a Weibull stochastic process. A non-Gaussian stochastic fields simulation method proposed by Shimozuka, et al is applied with the statistical data obtained experimentally. Test results are obtained for $\Delta$K constant amplitude load in tension with stress ratio of R=0.2 and three specimen thicknesses of 6, 12 and 18mm. This simulation method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the smallest life.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.73-78
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• 2000

Presented are the estimation of the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and reliability assessment of structures by simulating material resistance to fatigue crack growth along a crack path. The material resistance is treated as a Weibull stochastic process. A non-Gaussian stochastic fields simulation method proposed by shimozuka, et al is applied with the statistical data obtained experimentally. Test results are obtained for $\delta K$ constant amplitude load in tension with stress ratio of R=0.2 and three specimen thicknesses of 6,12 and 18mm. This simulation method is useful to estimate the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life and the smallest life.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.39-55
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• 2017

Preeminent performance of construction industry are unattainable with poor productivity resulting in time and cost over runs. Enhancement in productivity cannot be achieved without identifying and analyzing factors that adversely affect productivity. The objective therefore is to propose a productivity analysis model to quantify the probability of effect of factors influencing productivity by using fuzzy logic incorporated with relative importance index method, for various types of construction projects. To achieve this objective, a questionnaire survey was carried out targeting respondents of Indian construction industry, from four distinct projects, namely, residential, commercial, infrastructure and industrial projects. Based on questionnaire administered, the relative importance and ranks of factors demonstrated using relative importance index method. Probability assessment model to analyze productivity was then developed by using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The applicability of the proposed model was tested in seven construction projects and the probability of impact of factors on productivity evaluated. The results of application of model in the construction firms infers that the most contributing factor groups for most of the projects were discerned to be manpower, motivation and time group.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2014

Based on the reliability theory, the risk assessment of steel beams is performed by the determination of failure probability. In the calculation, bending, shearing and combined (bending + shearing) modes are examined. The resistance and the loads on the beam are assumed to be normal distribution. To investigate the failure probability changes, total load applied at the mid span of beam is divided into 1 to 1 and 1 to 2 ratio and then these divided loads are placed on the trisected points on beam. The change of boundary conditions at beam ends are also included in the investigation. It shows that failure is governed by the combined mode for the present beams and the second order bound analysis of failure probability is not crucial. On the whole failure probability decreases with increasing end restraints at the beam ends with some exception.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.8
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• pp.101-112
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• 2014

In this study, a risk assessment method based on scenario for the product safety management in Korea has been developed and proposed. To this end, Korea's related regulations for product safety management should be analyzed first, and the risk assessment method necessary for the enforcement of the regulations is presented by itemizing the method into the case of general injury and toxic substances. The features of the method presented in this study are as follows: (i) It is a method based on the injury scenario which can occur during the use of product. (ii) It assesses a risk based on the probability of the scenario and the severity of injury. (iii) In the case of toxic substances, it assesses a risk considering the hazard of the toxic substances on the human body and the severity of injury. To determine the probability of the injury scenario, this study has decomposed the scenario into several configuration factors and estimates each factor's probability to calculate the whole scenario's probability. The results of risk assessment through the method of this study are presented and it is shown that the method can be applied to the product classification for the product safety management.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.387-404
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• 2017

In this paper, in the last 4 years(2014~2017 school year), we classified the probability and statistical items based on the evaluation scope of the mathematics subject content knowledge which were presented by the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation, and the classified items were analyzed. As a result, First, in order to induce normalization of the probability and statistical curriculum, four assessment field should be evenly distributed. Second, integrated thinking and comprehensive analytical thinking assessment is required. Third, item an epilogue should be used to measure mathematical thinking and logical competence. Fourth, the ratio of the number of items in probability and statistics to the number of that was 7.7%~10.0%, and the ratio according to the item weighting was 5.0%~7.5%. Fifth, it maintains the policy of stabilizing a good the level of difficulty of the items. Finally, probability and statistical assessment should focus on measuring problem solving ability from an inductive point of view.