• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic studies

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Friendship Influence on Mobile Behavior of Location Based Social Network Users

  • Song, Yang;Hu, Zheng;Leng, Xiaoming;Tian, Hui;Yang, Kun;Ke, Xin
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.126-132
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    • 2015
  • In mobile computing research area, it is highly desirable to understand the characteristics of user movement so that the user friendly location aware services could be rendered effectively. Location based social networks (LBSNs) have flourished recently and are of great potential for movement behavior exploration and datadriven application design. While there have been some efforts on user check-in movement behavior in LBSNs, they lack comprehensive analysis of social influence on them. To this end, the social-spatial influence and social-temporal influence are analyzed synthetically in this paper based on the related information exposed in LBSNs. The check-in movement behaviors of users are found to be affected by their social friendships both from spatial and temporal dimensions. Furthermore, a probabilistic model of user mobile behavior is proposed, incorporating the comprehensive social influence model with extent personal preference model. The experimental results validate that our proposed model can improve prediction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art social historical model considering temporal information (SHM+T), which mainly studies the temporal cyclic patterns and uses them to model user mobility, while being with affordable complexity.

Conversion Function and Relationship of Loss of Load Expectation Indices on Two Kinds of Load Duration Curve (두 종류의 부하곡선에 관한 공급지장시간기대치(LOLE)의 상호 변환관계성)

  • Lee, Yeonchan;Oh, Ungjin;Choi, Jaeseok;Cha, Junmin;Choi, Hongseok;Jeon, Donghun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.3
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    • pp.475-485
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    • 2017
  • This paper develops a conversion function and method transforming from daily peak load curve used $LOLE_D$ [days/year] to hourly load curve used $LOLE_H$[hours/year]and describes relationship between $LOLE_D$ [days/year] and $LOLE_H$ [hours/year]. The indices can not only be transformed just arithmetically but also have different characteristics physically because of using their different load curves. The conversion function is formulated as variables of capacity and forced outage rate of generator, hourly load daily load factor and daily peak load yearly load factor, etc. Therefore, the conversion function (${\gamma}={\varphi}$(.)) can not be simple. In this study, therefore, the function is formulated as linear times of separated two functions. One is an exponential formed conversion function of daily load factor. Another is formulated with an exponential typed conversion function of daily peak load yearly load factor. Futhermore, this paper presents algorithm and flow chart for transforming from $LOLE_D$[days/year] to $LOLE_H$[hours/year]. The proposed conversion function is applied to sample system and actual KPS(Korea Power System) in 2015. The exponent coefficients of the conversion functions are assessed using proposed method. Finally, assessment errors using conversion function for case studies of sample system and actual system are evaluated to certify the firstly proposed method.

A Study on Pre-service Mathematics Teachers' some Misconceptions in the Statistics and Probability (예비 수학교사의 통계와 확률론에서의 몇 가지 오개념)

  • Kim, Changil;Jeon, Youngju
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.469-483
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to find out how pre-service mathematics teachers should prepare for the teaching of probability and statistics in school mathematics and to help improve teacher education. To do this, questionnaires and evaluation of probabilistic and statistical curriculum were conducted for pre-service teachers, and regression analysis and correlation between them were examined. Through the investigation, the items with low evaluation results due to level of difficulty were extracted and analyzed. As a result, first, it is necessary to teach pre-service mathematics teachers with link the contents curriculum of college and secondary school about probability and statistics. Second, accurate diagnosis of pre-service mathematics teachers' understanding of probability and statistics is needed. Third, the misconceptions and causes of pre-service mathematics teachers were analyzed in detail. And suggests that various follow-up studies related to this are needed.

Multi-level detection method for DRDoS attack (DRDoS 공격에 대한 다단계 탐지 기법)

  • Baik, Nam-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.1670-1675
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    • 2020
  • In this study, to provide the basis for establishing effective network based countermeasures against DRDoS(Distributed Reflection Denial of Service) attacks, we propose a new 'DRDoS attack multi-level detection method' that identifies the network based characteristics of DRDoS and applies probability and statistical techniques. The proposed method removes the limit to which normal traffic can be indiscriminately blocked by unlimited competition in network bandwidth by amplification of reflectors, which is characteristic of DRDoS. This means that by comparing 'Server to Server' and 'Outbound Session Incremental' for it, accurate DRDoS identification and detection is possible and only statistical and probabilistic thresholds are applied to traffic. Thus, network-based information security systems can take advantage of this to completely eliminate DRDoS attack frames. Therefore, it is expected that this study will contribute greatly to identifying and responding to DRDoS attacks.

Time-dependent seismic risk analysis of high-speed railway bridges considering material durability effects

  • Yan Liang;Ying-Ying Wei;Ming-Na Tong;Yu-Kun Cui
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.275-288
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    • 2023
  • Based on the crucial role of high-speed railway bridges (HSRBs) in the safety of high-speed railway operations, it is an important approach to mitigate earthquake hazards by proceeding with seismic risk assessments in their whole life. Bridge seismic risk assessment, which usually evaluates the seismic performance of bridges from a probabilistic perspective, provides technical support for bridge risk management. The seismic performance of bridges is greatly affected by the degradation of material properties, therefore, material damage plays a nonnegligible role in the seismic risk assessment of the bridge. The effect of material damage is not considered in most current studies on seismic risk analysis of bridges, nevertheless. To fill the gap in this area, in this paper, a nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis has been carried out by establishing OpenSees finite element model, and a seismic vulnerability analysis is carried out based on the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method. On this basis, combined with the site risk analysis, the time-dependent seismic risk analysis of an offshore three-span HSRB in the whole life cycle has been conducted. The results showed that the seismic risk probabilities of both components and system of the bridge increase with the service time, and their seismic risk probabilities increase significantly in the last service period due to the degradation of the material strength, which demonstrates that the impact of durability damage should be considered when evaluating the seismic performance of bridges in the design and service period.

Structural damage identification with output-only measurements using modified Jaya algorithm and Tikhonov regularization method

  • Guangcai Zhang;Chunfeng Wan;Liyu Xie;Songtao Xue
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.229-245
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    • 2023
  • The absence of excitation measurements may pose a big challenge in the application of structural damage identification owing to the fact that substantial effort is needed to reconstruct or identify unknown input force. To address this issue, in this paper, an iterative strategy, a synergy of Tikhonov regularization method for force identification and modified Jaya algorithm (M-Jaya) for stiffness parameter identification, is developed for damage identification with partial output-only responses. On the one hand, the probabilistic clustering learning technique and nonlinear updating equation are introduced to improve the performance of standard Jaya algorithm. On the other hand, to deal with the difficulty of selection the appropriate regularization parameters in traditional Tikhonov regularization, an improved L-curve method based on B-spline interpolation function is presented. The applicability and effectiveness of the iterative strategy for simultaneous identification of structural damages and unknown input excitation is validated by numerical simulation on a 21-bar truss structure subjected to ambient excitation under noise free and contaminated measurements cases, as well as a series of experimental tests on a five-floor steel frame structure excited by sinusoidal force. The results from these numerical and experimental studies demonstrate that the proposed identification strategy can accurately and effectively identify damage locations and extents without the requirement of force measurements. The proposed M-Jaya algorithm provides more satisfactory performance than genetic algorithm, Gaussian bare-bones artificial bee colony and Jaya algorithm.

A Study on the Model for Determining the Deceptive Status of Attackers using Markov Chain (Markov Chain을 이용한 기만환경 칩입 공격자의 기만 여부 예측 모델에 대한 연구)

  • Sunmo Yoo;Sungmo Wi;Jonghwa Han;Yonghyoun Kim;Jungsik Cho
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2023
  • Cyber deception technology plays a crucial role in monitoring attacker activities and detecting new types of attacks. However, along with the advancements in deception technology, the development of Anti-honeypot technology has allowed attackers who recognize the deceptive environment to either cease their activities or exploit the environment in reverse. Currently, deception technology is unable to identify or respond to such situations. In this study, we propose a predictive model using Markov chain analysis to determine the identification of attackers who infiltrate deceptive environments. The proposed model for deception status determination is the first attempt of its kind and is expected to overcome the limitations of existing deception-based attacker analysis, which does not consider attackers who identify the deceptive environment. The classification model proposed in this study demonstrated a high accuracy rate of 97.5% in identifying and categorizing attackers operating in deceptive environments. By predicting the identification of an attacker's deceptive environment, it is anticipated that this model can provide refined data for numerous studies analyzing deceptive environment intrusions.

SiRENE: A new generation of engineering simulator for real-time simulators at EDF

  • David Pialla;Stephanie Sala;Yann Morvan;Lucie Dreano;Denis Berne;Eleonore Bavoil
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.880-885
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    • 2024
  • For Safety Assisted Engineering works, real-time simulators have emerged as a mandatory tool among all the key actors involved in the nuclear industry (utilities, designers and safety authorities). EDF, Electricité de France, as the leading worldwide nuclear power plant operator, has a crucial need for efficient and updated simulation tools for training, operating and safety analysis support. This paper will present the work performed at EDF/DT to develop a new generation of engineering simulator to fulfil these tasks. The project is called SiRENE, which is the acronym of Re-hosted Engineering Simulator in French. The project has been economically challenging. Therefore, to benefit from existing tools and experience, the SiRENE project combines: - A part of the process issued from the operating fleet training full-scope simulator. - An improvement of the simulator prediction reliability with the integration of High-Fidelity models, used in Safety Analysis. These High-Fidelity models address Nuclear Steam Supply System code, with CATHARE thermal-hydraulics system code and neutronics, with COCCINELLE code. - And taking advantage of the last generation and improvements of instructor station. The intensive and challenging uses of the new SiRENE engineering simulator are also discussed. The SiRENE simulator has to address different topics such as verification and validation of operating procedures, identification of safety paths, tests of I&C developments or modifications, tests on hydraulics system components (pump, valve etc.), support studies for Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA). etc. It also emerges that SiRENE simulator is a valuable tool for self-training of the newcomers in EDF nuclear engineering centers. As a modifiable tool and thanks to a skillful team managing the SiRENE project, specific and adapted modifications can be taken into account very quickly, in order to provide the best answers for our users' specific issues. Finally, the SiRENE simulator, and the associated configurations, has been distributed among the different engineering centers at EDF (DT in Lyon, DIPDE in Marseille and CNEPE in Tours). This distribution highlights a strong synergy and complementarity of the different engineering institutes at EDF, working together for a safer and a more profitable operating fleet.

Probabilistic Prediction of the Risk of Sexual Crimes Using Weight of Evidence (Weight of Evidence를 활용한 성폭력 범죄 위험의 확률적 예측)

  • KIM, Bo-Eun;KIM, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.72-85
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    • 2019
  • The goal of this study is to predict sexual violence crimes, which is an routine risk. The study used to the Weight of Evidence on sexual violence crimes that occurred in partly Cheongju-si for five years from 2011 to 2015. The results are as follows. First, application and analysis of the Weight of Evidence that considers the weight of evidence characteristics showed 8 out of total 26 evidences that are used for a sexual violence crimes risk prediction. The evidences were residential area, date of use permission for building, individual housing price, floor area ratio, number of basement floor, lot area, security light and recreational facility; which satisfied credibility in the process of calculating weight. Second, The weight calculated 8 evidences were combined to create the prediction map in the end. The map showed that 16.5% of sexual violence crimes probability occurs in 0.3㎢, which is 3.3% of the map. The area of probability of 34.5% is 1.8㎢, which is 19.0% of the map and the area of probability of 75.5% is 2.0㎢, which is 20.7% of the map. This study derived the probability of occurrence of sexual violence crime risk and environmental factors or conditions that could reduce it. Such results could be used as basic data for devising preemptive measures to minimize sexual violence, such as police activities to prevent crimes.

Efficient Management of Statistical Information of Keywords on E-Catalogs (전자 카탈로그에 대한 효율적인 색인어 통계 정보 관리 방법)

  • Lee, Dong-Joo;Hwang, In-Beom;Lee, Sang-Goo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2009
  • E-Catalogs which describe products or services are one of the most important data for the electronic commerce. E-Catalogs are created, updated, and removed in order to keep up-to-date information in e-Catalog database. However, when the number of catalogs increases, information integrity is violated by the several reasons like catalog duplication and abnormal classification. Catalog search, duplication checking, and automatic classification are important functions to utilize e-Catalogs and keep the integrity of e-Catalog database. To implement these functions, probabilistic models that use statistics of index words extracted from e-Catalogs had been suggested and the feasibility of the methods had been shown in several papers. However, even though these functions are used together in the e-Catalog management system, there has not been enough consideration about how to share common data used for each function and how to effectively manage statistics of index words. In this paper, we suggest a method to implement these three functions by using simple SQL supported by relational database management system. In addition, we use materialized views to reduce the load for implementing an application that manages statistics of index words. This brings the efficiency of managing statistics of index words by putting database management systems optimize statistics updating. We showed that our method is feasible to implement three functions and effective to manage statistics of index words with empirical evaluation.

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