• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic studies

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The Role of Psychological Distance and Relative Optimism in Information Security Decision Making (정보보호 의사결정에서 정보보호 침해사고 발생가능성의 심리적 거리감과 상대적 낙관성의 역할)

  • Jongki Kim;Jiyun Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.51-71
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    • 2018
  • Many studies in the field of information security reveal the need to increase awareness. However, although awareness of information security has been raised to a considerable extent, actual security behavior has been shown to fall short of that. Therefore, we wanted to identify the role of psychological factors in making information security decisions by conducting a experimental study. The results show that there are differences in perception of information security risks according to the probabilistic distance and the degree of relative optimism due to social distance. In relation to their relative optimism and intention of information security, they reduced the level of perceived risk compared to those close to them and found that their influence varied according to their probabilistic distance. This study has made valuable attempt in terms of methodology and it is meaningful that the psychological factor is taken into consideration for the information protection behavior, so that the range of relative optimism that actually affects the perception of risk is narrowed. It is expected to contribute to the improvement of information security level of information technology users and protection of information assets by empirically identifying necessity of various approaches to decision making process for information security.

The Evaluation of Failure Probability for Rock Slope Based on Fuzzy Set Theory and Monte Carlo Simulation (Fuzzy Set Theory와 Monte Carlo Simulation을 이용한 암반사면의 파괴확률 산정기법 연구)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2007
  • Uncertainty is pervasive in rock slope stability analysis due to various reasons and subsequently it may cause serious rock slope failures. Therefore, the importance of uncertainty has been recognized and subsequently the probability theory has been used to quantify the uncertainty since 1980's. However, some uncertainties, due to incomplete information, cannot be handled satisfactorily in the probability theory and the fuzzy set theory is more appropriate for those uncertainties. In this study the random variable is considered as fuzzy number and the fuzzy set theory is employed in rock slope stability analysis. However, the previous fuzzy analysis employed the approximate method, which is first order second moment method and point estimate method. Since previous studies used only the representative values from membership function to evaluate the stability of rock slope, the approximated analysis results have been obtained in previous studies. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized to evaluate the probability of failure for rock slope in the current study. This overcomes the shortcomings of previous studies, which are employed vertex method. With Monte Carlo simulation technique, more complete analysis results can be secured in the proposed method. The proposed method has been applied to the practical example. According to the analysis results, the probabilities of failure obtained from the fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation coincide with the probabilities of failure from the probabilistic analysis.

Probabilistic seismic assessment of RC box-girder bridges retrofitted with FRP and steel jacketing

  • Naseri, Ali;Roshan, Alireza Mirzagoltabar;Pahlavan, Hossein;Amiri, Gholamreza Ghodrati
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.359-379
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    • 2020
  • Due to susceptibility of bridges in the past earthquakes, vulnerability assessment and strengthening of bridges has gained a particular significance. The objective of the present study is to employ an analytical method for the development of fragility curves, as well as to investigate the effect of strengthening on the RC box-girder bridges. Since fragility curves are used for pre-and post-earthquake planning, this paper has attempted to adopt the most reliable modeling assumptions in order to increase the reliability. Furthermore, to acknowledge the interaction of soil, abutment and pile, the effect of different strengthening methods, such as using steel jacketing and FRP layers, the effect of increase in the bridge pier diameter, and the effect of vertical component of earthquake on the vulnerability of bridges in this study, a three-span RC box-girder bridge was modeled in 9 different cases. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were carried out on the studied bridges subjected to 100 ground motion records via OpenSEES platform. Therefore, the fragility curves were plotted and compared in the four damage states. The results revealed that once the interaction of soil and abutment and the vertical component of the earthquake are accounted for in the calculations, the median fragility is reduced, implying that the bridge becomes more vulnerable. It was also confirmed that steel jackets and FRP layers are suitable methods for pier strengthening which reduces the vulnerability of the bridge.

Fragility Analysis of A Scaled Model of Reinforced Concrete Column in Accordance with Similitude Law (상사법칙이 적용된 철근콘크리트 기둥 축소모형의 지진 취약도 분석)

  • Park, Dong Uk;Jeon, Bub Gyu;Kim, Nam Sik;Park, Jamin;Cho, Jae-Yeol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2017
  • Many studies are conducted in several fields for fragility analysis of structures or elements which is a probabilistic seismic safety analysis in consideration with uncertainty of seismic loading. It is hard to directly conduct fragility analysis for an infrastructure with social importance due to its size. Therefore, a fragility analysis for an infrastructure mainly conducted in element level or conducted with scaled model built in accordance with similarity law. In this article, fragility analysis for prototype and scaled model of reinforced concrete column was conducted with numerical models which had been updated by the results of shaking table test and pseudo dynamic test. As a result, response stress from the numerical analysis result of prototype model was higher than that from scaled model due to different stiffness ratios between steel and concrete. However, the probability of failure for scaled model was higher than that for prototype model because failure criteria for scaled model was down due to similarity law. Also it was evaluated that probability of failure by using log normal standard deviation of response stresses by spectrum matched accelerograms was more reliable than probability of failure by using existing coefficient of variation normally used.

Questionnaire Survey of the Methods Used in Household Doenjang Production in Korea

  • Ryu, So Young;Lee, Sang Yoo;Woo, So Young;Kang, Seung Yoon;Song, Jeonghun;Jeong, A-Yeong;Chun, Hyang Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.342-350
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    • 2020
  • This study examined the methods used in household doenjang (Korean soybean paste) production. Nine hundred forty-three responses were obtained using a nationwide, questionnaire-based survey (2018-2019) with non-probabilistic snowballing sampling. Consistent with previous studies, the respondents were primarily over the age of 50 years (97.1%) and female (97.9%). In addition to soybeans, the most used ingredients were red pepper (85.8%) and charcoal (85.5%), which most respondents obtained through direct farming (50.4-59.9%). Seasonal production occurred later in the higher latitude regions (Gyeonggi-do, Gangwon-do, Chungcheong-do) (p < 0.01), which have lower average temperatures, and the fermentation period was shorter in the lower latitude regions (Jeolla-do, Gyeongsang-do, Jeju-do) (p < 0.01), which have higher average temperatures. There were no significant regional differences in the season when doenjang was made, with most production occurring during January and February (81.1%). Most respondents (71.3%) made doenjang using homemade meju (soybean block used as a starter) in a traditional way to allow the microorganisms to be naturally inoculated. These results could be used as a basis for future research on topics such as starter development, standardized production, and safety of household doenjang.

A Mixed Approach for Single-Vendor-Single-Buyer Production Inventory Integration Problem (판매자-구매자 생산-재고통합 문제를 위한 Mixed Approach)

  • Lee, Dongju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2016
  • Unlike most researches that focus on single manufacturer or single buyer, this research studies the cooperation policy for two participants of supply chain such as single vendor and single buyer. Especially, this paper deals with single vendor-single buyer integrated-production inventory problem. If the buyer orders products, then the vendor will start to make products and then the products will be shipped from the vendor to the buyer many times. The buyer is supposed to order again when the buyer's inventory level hits reorder point during the last shipment and this cycle keeps repeated. The buyer uses continuous review inventory policy and customer's demand is assumed to be probabilistic. The contribution of this paper is to present a mixed approach and derive its cost function. The existing policy assumes that the size of shipping batch from single vendor to single buyer is increasing, called Type 1, or constant, called Type 2. In mixed approach, the size of shipping batch is increasing at the beginning part of the cycle, and then its size is constant at the ending part of the cycle. The number of shipping for Type 1 and Type 2 in a cycle in mixed approach is determined to minimize total cost. The relationship between parameters, for example, the holding cost per product, the set up cost per order, and the shortage cost per item and decision variables such as order quantity, safety factor, the number of shipments, and shipment increasing factor is figured out via sensitivity analysis. Finally, it is statistically proved that the mixed approach is superior to the existing approaches.

Site Suitability Analysis for Riverbank Filtration Using Game Theory (게임이론을 활용한 강변여과 개발 적지선정)

  • Lee, Sang-Il;Lee, Sang-Sin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2010
  • The tap water supply in Korea mainly depends on the surface water. However, the advanced water purification process becomes a necessity due to the deterioration of surface water quality and the risk of accidental spill. High cost of water treatment and public concerns make the decision makers turn to riverbank filtration as an alternative to the surface water. Riverbank filtration has been employed for water supply in many developed countries for more than 150 years. In Korea, riverbank filtration has drawn attention since 1990s as a supply source having potential to stably meet the ever-increasing water demand. Some cities located in the Nakdong River Basin are currently supplying water through riverbank filtration. This work studies the site suitability analysis for riverbank filtration using game theory. Theory of games, which is a branch of applied mathematics used in social sciences (most notably economics), biology, engineering and computer science, was applied to candidate locations for the selection of riverbank filtration site. We proposed a policy game model as a new method adopting a probabilistic approach. The model developed turned out to be an effective tool for site selection.

Assessment of Freeway Crash Risk using Probe Vehicle Accelerometer (프로브차량 가속도센서를 이용한 고속도로 교통사고 위험도 평가기법)

  • Park, Jae-Hong;Oh, Cheol;Kang, Kyeong-Pyo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2011
  • Understanding various casual factors affecting the occurrence of freeway traffic crash is a backbone of deriving effective countermeasures. The first step toward understanding such factors is to identify crash risks on freeways. Unlike existing studies, this study focused on the unsafe vehicle maneuvering that can be detected by in-vehicle sensors. The recent advancement of sensor technologies allows us to gather and analyze detailed microscopic events leading to crash occurrence such as the abrupt change in acceleration. This study used an accelerometer to capture the unsafe events. A set of candidate variables representing unsafe events were derived from analyzing acceleration data obtained by the accelerometer. Then, the crash risk was modeled by the binary logistic regression technique. The probabilistic outcome of crash risk can be provided by the proposed model. An application of the methodology assessing crash risk was presented, and further research items for the successful field implementation were also discussed.

A Study for Pedestrian's Safety: Relating to TPB (무단횡단을 하는 보행자의 안전을 위한 연구: TPB를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.180-194
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    • 2015
  • On roads vehicles are the bossy, while pedestrians are the frangible. The current paper has a purpose for contributing to pedestrian's safety. First, it studies the association between demographic parameters and TPB(Theory of Planned Behavior)'s variables(pedestrian's attitude toward crossing behavior in roads, personal norm, etc.) and his/her crossing intention, perceived risk while crossing, and the experience of past traffic accidents. Its sample comes from a specific population(college students). Further, the present study endeavors to explain the portion of human cognitive failure/error, impulsiveness, time perspective, and probabilistic/math-logical judgment ability in pedestrian's riky crossings on roads. Research results found that TPB variables and such a few human characteristics have some significant association with the risky crossing intention on the road. Considering the human psychological portion in pedestrian accidents would help us prevent the accidents and reduce unhappiness of the accidents and, further, economic loss and insurance expenditure related with the accidents.

An Analysis of the Applications of the Language Models for Information Retrieval (정보검색에서의 언어모델 적용에 관한 분석)

  • Kim Heesop;Jung Youngmi
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.49-68
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the research trends and their experiment results on the applications of the language models for information retrieval. We reviewed the previous studies with the following categories: (1) the first generation of language modeling information retrieval (LMIR) experiments which are mainly focused on comparing the language modeling information retrieval with the traditional retrieval models in their retrieval performance, and (2) the second generation of LMIR experiments which are focused on comparing the expanded language modeling information retrieval with the basic language models in their retrieval performance. Through the analysis of the previous experiments results, we found that (1) language models are outperformed the probabilistic model or vector space model approaches, and (2) the expended language models demonstrated better results than the basic language models in their retrieval performance.

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