• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.368-378
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• 2019

Logic trees for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment include numerous variables to take various uncertainty on earthquake generation into consideration. Results from the hazard assessment vary in different way as more variables are considered in the logic tree. This study is conducted to estimate the effects of various scaling laws and fault parameters on tsunami hazard at the nearshore of Busan. Active fault parameters, such as strike angle, dip angle and asperity, are adjusted in the modelling of tsunami propagation, and the numerical results are used in the sensitivity analysis. The influence of strike angle to tsunami hazard is not as much significant as it is expected, instead, dip angle and asperity show a considerable impact to tsunami hazard assessment. It is shown that the dip angle and the asperity which determine the initial wave form are more important than the strike angle for the assessment of tsunami hazard in the East Sea.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.59-73
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• 2016

The demand for subsurface transport is increasing. The users and the operators of road tunnels are exposed to risks with different causes. One main cause, however, is the traffic situation in the event of accidents. The importance of a Quantified Risk Assessment is increasing to quantify the safety of road tunnels and to balance the requirements (capacity, reliability, availability, maintainability and safety) of various stakeholders. Although there are classical methods for risk assessments, such as ETA and FTA. These methods are used for relatively simple cases because it could not relevantly reflect the diversity and relationship of the parameters. Therefore, a quantitative risk assessment based on Bayesian Probabilistic Networks considering interdependence between the parameters of a complex underground system as a double deck tunnel is provided.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.258-265
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• 2017

At the early stage of the development of high speed propulsion systems, the designers suffer from the lack of both the quantity and the quality of test data. In that situation, the associated uncertainties could not be modeled as probabilistic distribution since probabilistic modelling requires large amount of data. In this paper, instead, the information provided by experts based on their experience and engineering knowledge was used to model uncertainty using the evidence theory. In designing the DCR(Dual Combustion Ramjet) engine, the combustion efficiencies, not well understood and little data existing, are assumed to have been provided by experts. And the uncertainties are quantified by Evidence theory. The quantified uncertainties are incorporated into the optimization. The design variables, area of inlet and area of combustor exit, have been found while satisfying reliability margins of thrust and thermal choking. The results show a reasonable design of the engine under the uncertain circumstances.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.4367-4381
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• 2023

Nuclear power plants are increasingly being equipped with digital I&C systems. Although some probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models for the digital I&C of nuclear power plants have been constructed, there is currently no specific internationally agreed guidance for their modeling. This paper presents an initiative by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency called "Digital I&C PSA - Comparative application of DIGital I&C Modelling Approaches for PSA (DIGMAP)", which aimed to advance the field towards practical and defendable modeling principles. The task, carried out in 2017-2021, used a simplified description of a plant focusing on the digital I&C systems important to safety, for which the participating organizations independently developed their own PSA models. Through comparison of the PSA models, sensitivity analyses as well as observations throughout the whole activity, both qualitative and quantitative lessons were learned. These include insights on failure behavior of digital I&C systems, experience from models with different levels of abstraction, benefits from benchmarking as well as major contributors to the core damage frequency and those with minor effect. The study also highlighted the challenges with modeling of large common cause component groups and the difficulties associated with estimation of key software and common cause failure parameters.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.205-208
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• 2017

Modelling and fitting the spectral energy distribution (SED) of galaxies or regions of galaxies is one of the most useful methods available to the astronomer nowadays. By modelling the SEDs and comparing the models to the observations, we can collect important information on the physical processes at play in the formation and evolution of galaxies. The models allow to follow the evolution of the galaxies from their formation on. The versatility of code is crucial because of the diversity of galaxies. The analysis is only relevant and useful if the models can correctly reproduce this diversity now and across (as best as possible) all redshifts. On the other hand, the code needs to run fast to compare several million or tens of millions of models and to select the best (on a probabilistic basis) one that best resembles the observations. With this important point in mind, it seems logical that we should efficiently make use of the computer power available to the average astronomer. For instance, it seems difficult, today, to model and fit SEDs without a parallelized code. We present the new Python version of CIGALE SED fitting code and its characteristics. CIGALE comes in two main flavours: CIGALE Classic to fit SEDs and CIGALE Model to create spectra and SEDs of galaxies at all redshifts. The latest can potentially be used in conjunction with galaxy evolution models of galaxy formation and evolution such as semi-analytic ones.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.73 no.3
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• pp.339-351
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• 2020

Earthquakes are natural disasters that cause serious social disruptions and economic losses. In particular, they have a significant impact on critical lifeline infrastructure such as urban water transmission networks. Therefore, it is important to predict network performance and provide an alternative that minimizes the damage by considering the factors affecting lifeline structures. This paper proposes a probabilistic reliability approach for post-hazard flow analysis of a water transmission network according to earthquake magnitude, pipeline deterioration, and interdependency between pumping plants and 154 kV substations. The model is composed of the following three phases: (1) generation of input ground motion considering spatial correlation, (2) updating the revised nodal demands, and (3) calculation of available nodal demands. Accordingly, a computer code was developed to perform the hydraulic analysis and numerical modelling of water facilities. For numerical simulation, an actual water transmission network was considered and the epicenter was determined from historical earthquake data. To evaluate the network performance, flow-based performance indicators such as system serviceability, nodal serviceability, and mean normal status rate were introduced. The results from the proposed approach quantitatively show that the water network is significantly affected by not only the magnitude of the earthquake but the interdependency and pipeline deterioration.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.28-33
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• 2007

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the short-term creep rupture time and the creep rupture properties at three different elevated temperatures in STS304 stainless steel. Uniaxial constant stress creep rupture tests were performed on the steel to observe the creep rupture behaviors at the elevated temperatures of 600, 650 and 700, according to the testing matrix. It is very important to predict creep life in practical creep design problems. As one of the series of studies on the statistical modelling of probabilistic creep rupture time and the development of creep life prediction techniques, the relationship between applied stress and creep rupture behaviors, such as creep strain rate and rupture time, were investigated. In addition, the Monkman-Grant relationship was observed between the steady-state creep rate and the creep rupture time. The creep rupture surfaces observed by SEM showed up dimple phenomenon at all conditions.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.53-72
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• 1991

An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.325-334
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• 2017

In the present study, a numerical model for probability analysis of optimal design of fatigue non-uniform crack growth behaviour of a cracked aluminium 2024 T3 plate repaired with a bonded composite patch is investigated. The proposed 3D numerical model has advanced in literatures, which gathers in a unique study: problems of reliability, optimization, fatigue, cracks and repair of plates subjected to tensile loadings. To achieve this aim, a finite element modelling is carried out to determine the evolution of the stress intensity factor at the crack tip Paris law is used to predict the fatigue life for a give n crack. To have an optimal volume of our patch satisfied the practical fatigue life, a procedure of optimization is proposed. Finally, the probabilistic analysis is performed in order to a show that optimized patch design is influenced by uncertainties related to mechanical and geometrical properties during the manufacturing process.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1990.07a
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• pp.154-157
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• 1990

This paper describes a new method of calculating expected energy generation and loss of load probability (L.O.L.P) for electric power system operation and expansion planning. The method represents an equivalent load duration curve (E.L.D.C) as a mixture of cumulants approximation (M.O.C.A), which is the general case of mixture of normals approximation (M.O.N.A). By regarding a load distribution as many normal distributions-rather than one normal distribution-and representing each of them in terms of Gram-Charller expansion, we could improve the accuracy of results. We developed an algorithm which automatically determines the number of distribution and demarcation points. In modelling of a supply system, we made subsets of generators according to the number of generator outage: since the calculation of each subset's moment needs to be processed rapidly, we futher developed specific recursive formulae. The method is applied to the test systems and the results are compared with those of cumulant, M.O.N.A and Booth-Baleriaux method. It is verified that the M.O.C.A method is faster and more accurate than any other methods.