• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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• pp.753-758
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• 2004

This study is to suggest a probabilistic design determining configurations of slider air bearings with the dimensional manufacturing tolerances of the ABS. The probabilistic design problem is formulated to minimize the variation in flying height from a target value while satisfying the desired probabilities keeping the pitch and roll angles within suitable range. The proposed approach first solves the deterministic optimization problem. Then, beginning with this solution, the RBDO is continued with the probabilistic constraints affected by the random variables with a fixed standard deviation in normal distribution. The RBDO results are directly compared with the values of the initial design and the results of the deterministic optimization, respectively. The reliability analyses are performed by the descriptive sampling (DS) to show the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach. It is demonstrated that the proposed RBDO approach can efficiently obtain an optimum solution satisfying all the desired probabilistic constraints.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제14권8호
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• pp.695-701
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• 2004

This study is to suggest a Probabilistic design determining configurations of slider air bearings with the dimensional manufacturing tolerances of the ABS. The probabilistic design problem is formulated to minimize the variation in flying height from a target value while satisfying the desired probabilities keeping the pitch and roll angles within a suitable range. The proposed approach first selves the deterministic optimization problem. Then, beginning with this solution, the RBDO is continued with the probabilistic constraints affected by the random variables with a fixed standard deviation in normal distribution. The RBDO results are directly compared with the values of the initial design and the results of the deterministic optimization, respectively. The reliability analyses are performed by the descriptive sampling (DS) to show the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach. It is demonstrated that the Proposed RBDO approach can efficiently obtain an optimum solution satisfying all the desired probabilistic constraints.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.299-302
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• 2008

The behavior of continuous welded rail tracks is directly affected by the following various parameters: rail size; track curvature; neutral temperature; misalignment; and ballast resistance. Most of these parameters are having the nature of random variables. Therefore, uncertainties exist in the buckling safety assessments. The evaluation of the buckling safety and the maintenance strategy based on the deterministic analysis are very inefficient since the value of deterministic parameters are selected in worst track condition. In this study, the probabilistic approach method were investigated considering the probabilistic distribution of major parameters such as the neutral temperature of rail and the ballast resistance.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.109-116
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• 1989

In many cases, production-inventory systems involves significant demand variations. Actual demand is probabilistic and the production capacity is also limited. Finding the proper production lot sizes to this problem usually requires heavy computational procedures. Therefore a heuristic approach were under various assumptions is highly recommended. In this paper, an approach with consideration of probabilistic demand and limited production capacity is proposed.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.7-12
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• 2007

In order to evaluate the integrity of Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes, probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) approach was employed. Failure assessment diagram(FAD), plastic collapses, and critical crack lengths(CCL) were used for evaluating the failure probability as failure criteria. The Kr-FAD as failure assessment diagram was used because fracture of pressure tubes occurred in brittle manner due to hydrogen embrittlement of material by deuterium fluence. The probabilistic integrity evaluation observed AECL procedures and used fracture toughness parameters of EPRI and recently announced theory. In conclusion, the probabilistic approach using the Kr-FAD made it possible to determine major failure criterion in the pressure tube integrity evaluation.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2000년도 가을 학술발표회논문집
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• pp.32-39
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• 2000

Probabilistic structural design optimization, which is characterized by the so-called probabilistic. constraints which introduce permissible probability of violation, is preferred to deterministic design optimization since unpredictable inherent uncertainties and randomness in structural and environmental properties are to be taken quantitatively into account by probabilistic design optimization. In this paper, the well-known reliability index based MPFP(Most Probable Failure Point) search approach and the newly introduced target performance measure based MPTP(Minimum Performance Target Point) search approach are summarized and compared. The present comparison focuses on the number of iterations required for the estimation of probabilistic constraints and a technique for improvement which removes exhaustive iterations is presented as well. A 10 bar truss problem is examined for this.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.1520-1526
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• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic method to evaluate the total transfer capability (TTC) by considering the sequential quadratic programming and the uncertainty of weather conditions. After the initial TTC is calculated by sequential quadratic programming (SQP), the transient stability is checked by time simulation. Also because power systems are exposed to a variety of weather conditions the outage probability is increased due to the weather condition. The probabilistic approach is necessary to evaluate the TTC, and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC by considering the various weather conditions.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.1605-1614
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• 2013

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for small signal stability analysis of power system with correlated wind sources. The approach considers not only the stochastic characteristics of wind speeds which are treated as random variables with Weibull distributions, while also the wind speed spatial correlations which are characterized by a correlation matrix. The approach based on the 2m+1 point estimate method and Cornish Fisher expansion, the orthogonal transformation technique is used to deal with the correlation of wind farms. A case study is carried out on IEEE New England system and the probabilistic indexes for eigenvalue analysis are computed from the statistical processing of the obtained results. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are confirmed by comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulation. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method can actually capture the probabilistic characteristics of mode properties of the power systems with correlated wind sources and the consideration of spatial correlation has influence on the probability of system small signal stability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.2084-2093
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• 2022

Probabilistic safety assessment is widely used to quantify the risks of nuclear power plants and their uncertainties. When the lognormal distribution describes the uncertainties of basic events, the uncertainty of the top event in a fault tree is approximated with the sum of lognormal random variables after minimal cutsets are obtained, and rare-event approximation is applied. As handling complicated analytic expressions for the sum of lognormal random variables is challenging, several approximation methods, especially Monte Carlo simulation, are widely used in practice for uncertainty analysis. In this study, a theoretical approach for analyzing the sum of lognormal random variables using an efficient numerical integration method is proposed for uncertainty analysis in probability safety assessments. The change of variables from correlated random variables with a complicated region of integration to independent random variables with a unit hypercube region of integration is applied to obtain an efficient numerical integration. The theoretical advantages of the proposed method over other approximation methods are shown through a benchmark problem. The proposed method provides an accurate and efficient approach to calculate the uncertainty of the top event in probabilistic safety assessment when the uncertainties of basic events are described with lognormal random variables.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.271-279
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• 2018

Purpose: Probabilistic safety analysis was performed to enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants because traditional deterministic approach has limitations in predicting the risk of failure by crack growth. The study introduces a probabilistic approach to establish a basis for probabilistic safety assessment of passive components. Methods: For probabilistic modeling of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR), various FCGR tests were performed either under constant load amplitude or constant ${\Delta}K$ conditions by using heat treated X-750 at low temperature with adequate cathodic polarization. Bayesian inference was employed to update uncertainties of the FCGR model using additional information obtained from constant ${\Delta}K$ tests. Results: Four steps of Bayesian parameter updating were performed using constant ${\Delta}K$ test results. The standard deviation of the final posterior distribution was decreased by a factor of 10 comparing with that of the prior distribution. Conclusion: The method for developing a probabilistic crack growth model has been designed and demonstrated, in the paper. Alloy X-750 has been used for corrosion fatigue crack growth experiments and modeling. The uncertainties of parameters in the FCGR model were successfully reduced using the Bayesian inference whenever the updating was performed.