• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.52-56
• /
• 2009

In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

• Kyungpook Mathematical Journal
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.593-604
• /
• 2003

In this paper we introduce the integral type Lupas-$B{\acute{e}}zier$ operator $\tilde{B}_{n,{\alpha}}$, which is a new approximation operator of probabilistic type. We study the rate of pointwise convergence of the operators $\tilde{B}_{n,{\alpha}}$ for local bounded functions and get an asymptotically estimate by means of some methods and techniques of probability theory.

• Journal of Information Management
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.34-52
• /
• 1990

The probabilistic reasoning method using Bayesian theory is studied to use uncertain or incomplete knowledge in ways that take the uncertainty into account. This method presented for knowledge acquisition process of expert system to evaluate certainty degree of input knowledge.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
• /
• v.27 no.2_1
• /
• pp.249-256
• /
• 2024

Traditional methods for monitoring targets rely heavily on probabilistic data association (PDA) or Kalman filtering. However, achieving optimal performance in a densely congested tracking environment proves challenging due to factors such as the complexities of measurement, mathematical simplification, and combined target detection for the tracking association problem. This article analyzes a target tracking problem through the lens of fuzzy logic theory, identifies the fuzzy rules that a fuzzy tracker employs, and designs the tracker utilizing fuzzy rules and Kalman filtering.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.54 no.3
• /
• pp.55-63
• /
• 2012

Soil properties are not random values which is represented by mean and standard deviation but show spatial correlation. Especially, soils are highly variable in their properties and rarely homogeneous. Thus, the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic analysis results is decreased when using only one random variable as design parameter. In this paper, to consider spatial variability of soil property, one-dimensional random fields of coefficient of consolidation ($C_v$) were generated based on a Karhunen-Loeve expansion. A Latin hypercube Monte Calro simulation coupled with finite difference method for Terzaghi's one dimensional consolidation theory was then used to probabilistic analysis. The results show that the failure probability is smaller when consider spatial variability of $C_v$ than not considered and the failure probability increased when the autocorrelation distance increased. Thus, the uncertainty of soil can be overestimated when spatial variability of soil property is not considered, and therefore, to perform a more accurate probabilistic analysis, spatial variability of soil property needed to be considered.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 1999.03a
• /
• pp.315-322
• /
• 1999

The probabilistic keyblock concept which was based upon block theory was applied to the example site by using the observed block moulds data. The more was the block failure likelihood (P(B)) which was defined by the product of the joint combination probability, the shape parameter and the instability parameter, the more were the frequencies of failures observed. If we can acquire these data during a tunnel construction stage, they will be used as a very useful data to construct another tunnel in the neighborhood. Furthermore, a sedimentary rock may have larger P(B) values than a crystalline rock, and for the given P(B) value, the percent block moulds are larger in the former than latter.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.69-97
• /
• 2016

Performance-based remaining life assessment of reinforced concrete bridge girders, subject to chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement, is addressed in this paper. Towards this, a methodology that takes into consideration the human judgmental aspects in expert decision making regarding condition state assessment is proposed. The condition of the bridge girder is specified by the assignment of a condition state from a set of predefined condition states, considering both serviceability- and ultimate- limit states, and, the performance of the bridge girder is described using performability measure. A non-homogeneous Markov chain is used for modelling the stochastic evolution of condition state of the bridge girder with time. The thinking process of the expert in condition state assessment is modelled within a probabilistic framework using Brunswikian theory and probabilistic mental models. The remaining life is determined as the time over which the performance of the girder is above the required performance level. The usefulness of the methodology is illustrated through the remaining life assessment of a reinforced concrete T-beam bridge girder.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.113-124
• /
• 1997

Based on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of load and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local load and resistances, it is recognized to develop the design criterion compatible with domestic requirements. The existing optimum design methods, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering exprience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of load and resistances and the basic reliability concepts. This study is directed to propose a optimum design based Expected Total Cost Minimization on two-way slab system which could possibly replace optimum design based traditional provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliablity theory.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.9 no.6
• /
• pp.57-68
• /
• 2009

Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

• Geotechnical Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.5-20
• /
• 1990

In the seismic analysis of structures, where the dynamic soil-structure interaction (DSSI) is considred, earthquake input motions as well as dynamic soil properties are random in nature. To take into account the random nature of both the input motions and the dynamic soil properties systematically, a probabilistic analysis of the DSSI subjected to seismic loading is proposed in this paper, The complex response method formulized by the elastic half space theory, the random vibration theory, and the Rosenblueth's two-point estimate method are combined for the proposed probabilistic analysis. The conclusions drawn from this study are as follows ' 1) The uncertainty bands of the earthquake input motions proposed by Kanai-Tajimi as well as those of the dynamic properties are large the coefecients of variation of those parameters tinge from 0.4 to 0.6. 2) The uncertainties of the dynamic soil properties are more sensitive to the structural responses than those of the input motion parameters. 3) The effect of correlations between the input motion parameters and the dynamic soil properties is negligible.