• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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Prediction of Preliminary Pogo Instability on a Space Launch Vehicle (예비설계 단계 우주발사체의 공급/추진계 모델을 이용한 포고 불안정성 예측)

  • Lee, SangGu;Sim, JiSoo;Shin, SangJoon;Seo, Yongjun;Ann, Sungjun;Song, Huiseong;Kim, Youdan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 2017
  • The longitudinal dynamic instability which can occur in the fueling process of a space launch vehicle is called pogo. It is caused by coupling between the fuselage and propulsion system and they would be formed as a closed-loop system. so that the amplitude of the response may increase or decrease. In this paper, a mathematical model which is applicable to the systematic pogo analysis of a general launch vehicle is developed for an example of space shuttle. The formulations are composed of the linearized second-order differential equation for the propulsion system, and of the pressure, weight displacement, and generalized displacement. Those are important parameters for pogo analysis, are derived through eigenvalue analysis. By the formulation suggested in this paper, it is expected that mathematical modeling method of the pogo system can be obtained and systematic pogo stability analysis for any launch vehicle will be enabled.

Human-Oriented Design of Backrest of Office Chair Using Haptic-aided Design and Lumber Angle Prediction (햅틱보조설계 기법과 요추각도의 예측을 이용한 의자등판의 인간중심적인 설계)

  • Lee, Sang-Duck;Lee, Hae-A;Song, Jae-Bok;Chae, Soo-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.1581-1586
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    • 2010
  • Haptic-aided design (HAD) involves the use of a haptic simulator in place of physical prototypes in the design and development of products with which human beings interact physically. The development time and cost can be significantly reduced by adopting this HAD scheme. Although both physical and emotional factors are equally important, only the emotional factors were taken into consideration in the previous HAD process. Consequently, the design of the products was sometimes unsatisfactory from the viewpoint of ergonomics, even though users were emotionally satisfied with the products. To overcome this problem, in this study, we propose a new human-oriented design methodology that is enhanced by taking the physical factors into consideration. The HAD scheme was verified by using a haptic chair simulator to design a tilt mechanism of an office chair for which the stiffness of the backrest can be adjusted; then, the design was simulated using MADYMO. The results show that the proposed method can reflect both the physical and emotional factors to modify the design in real-time.

A Potential-Based Panel Method for the Analysis of A Two-Dimensional Super-Cavitating Hydrofoil (양력판(揚力板) 이론(理論)에 의(依)한 2차원(次元) 수중익(水中翼)의 초월(超越) 공동(空洞) 문제(問題) 해석(解析))

  • Y.G. Kim;C.S. Lee;J.T. Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.159-173
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    • 1991
  • This paper describes a potential-based panel method formulated for the analysis of a super-cavitating two-dimensional hydrofoil. The method employs normal dipoles and sources distributed on the foil and cavity surfaces to represent the potential flow around the cavitating hydrofoil. The kinematic boundary condition on the wetted portion of the foil surface is satisfied by requiring that the total potential vanish in the fictitious inner flow region of the foil, and the dynamic boundary condition on the cavity surface is satisfied by requiring thats the potential vary linearly, i.e., the tangential velocity be constant. Green's theorem then results in a potential-based integral equation rather than the usual velocity-based formulation of Hess & Smith type. With the singularities distributed on the exact hydrofoil surface, the pressure distributions are predicted with improved accuracy compared to those of the linearized lilting surface theory, especially near the leading edge. The theory then predicts the cavity shape and cavitation number for an assumed cavity length. To improve the accuracy, the sources and dipoles on the cavity surface are moved to the newly computed cavity surface, where the boundary conditions are satisfied again. This iteration process is repeated until the results are converged. Characteristics of iteration and discretization of the present numerical method are much faster and more stable than the existing nonlinear theories. The theory shows good correlations with the existing theories and experimental results for the super-cavitating flow. In the region of small angles of attack, the present prediction shows and excellent comparison with the Geurst's linear theory. For the long cavity, the method recovers the trends of the Wu's nonlinear theory. In the intermediate regions of the short super-cavitation, the method compares very well with the experimental results of Parkin and also those of Silberman.

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A Comparison Study of Model Parameter Estimation Methods for Prognostics (건전성 예측을 위한 모델변수 추정방법의 비교)

  • An, Dawn;Kim, Nam Ho;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.355-362
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    • 2012
  • Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of a system is important in the prognostics field since it is directly linked with safety and maintenance scheduling. In the physics-based prognostics, accurately estimated model parameters can predict the remaining useful life exactly. It, however, is not a simple task to estimate the model parameters because most real system have multivariate model parameters, also they are correlated each other. This paper presents representative methods to estimate model parameters in the physics-based prognostics and discusses the difference between three methods; the particle filter method(PF), the overall Bayesian method(OBM), and the sequential Bayesian method(SBM). The three methods are based on the same theoretical background, the Bayesian estimation technique, but the methods are distinguished from each other in the sampling methods or uncertainty analysis process. Therefore, a simple physical model as an easy task and the Paris model for crack growth problem are used to discuss the difference between the three methods, and the performance of each method evaluated by using established prognostics metrics is compared.

Development of Statistical Downscaling Model Using Nonstationary Markov Chain (비정상성 Markov Chain Model을 이용한 통계학적 Downscaling 기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2009
  • A stationary Markov chain model is a stochastic process with the Markov property. Having the Markov property means that, given the present state, future states are independent of the past states. The Markov chain model has been widely used for water resources design as a main tool. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical properties remain the same for all times. Hence, the stationary Markov chain model basically can not consider the changes of mean or variance. In this regard, a primary objective of this study is to develop a model which is able to make use of exogenous variables. The regression based link functions are employed to dynamically update model parameters given the exogenous variables, and the model parameters are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at Seoul station having 46 years data from 1961 to 2006. The model shows a capability to reproduce daily and seasonal characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as a short or mid-term prediction tool if elaborate GCM forecasts are used as a predictor. Also, the nonstationary Markov chain model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are provided as inputs.

Measurement of the Device Properties of a Ionization Smoke Detector to Improve Predictive Performance of the Fire Modeling (화재모델링 예측성능 개선을 위한 이온화식 연기감지기의 장치물성 측정)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hwa;Hwang, Cheol-Hong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2013
  • The high prediction performance of fire detector models is essentially needed to assure the reliability of fire and evacuation modeling in the process of PBD (Performance Based fire safety Design). The main objective of the present study is to measure input information in order to predict the accurate activation time of smoke detector into a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) fire model such as FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator). To end this, FDE (Fire Detector Evaluator) which can measure the device properties of detector was developed, and the input information of Heskestad and Cleary's models was measured for a ionization smoke detector. In addition, the activation times of smoke detectors predicted using default values into FDS and measured values in the present study were systematically compared. As a result, the device properties of smoke detector examined in the present study showed a significant difference compared to the default values used into FDS, which resulted in the considerable difference of up to 15 minutes or more in terms of the activation time of smoke detector. The database (DB) on device properties of various smoke and heat detectors will be built to improve the reliability of PBD in future studies.

A Prediction Search Algorithm by using Temporal and Spatial Motion Information from the Previous Frame (이전 프레임의 시공간 모션 정보에 의한 예측 탐색 알고리즘)

  • Kwak, Sung-Keun;Wee, Young-Cheul;Kimn, Ha-Jine
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2003
  • There is the temporal correlation of the video sequence between the motion vector of current block and the motion vector of the previous block. If we can obtain useful and enough information from the motion vector of the same coordinate block of the previous frame, the total number of search points used to find the motion vector of the current block may be reduced significantly. In this paper, we propose the block-matching motion estimation using an adaptive initial search point by the predicted motion information from the same block of the previous frame. And the first search point of the proposed algorithm is moved an initial point on the location of being possibility and the searching process after moving the first search point is processed according to the fast search pattern. Simulation results show that PSNR(Peak-to-Signal Noise Ratio) values are improved UP to the 1.05dB as depend on the image sequences and improved about 0.33~0.37dB on an average. Search times are reduced about 29~97% than the other fast search algorithms. Simulation results also show that the performance of the proposed scheme gives better subjective picture quality than the other fast search algorithms and is closer to that of the FS(Full Search) algorithm.

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Mathematical Modeling of Degree of Hydration and Adiabatic Temperature Rise (콘크리트의 수화도 및 단열온도상승량 예측모델 개발)

  • 차수원
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.118-125
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    • 2002
  • Hydration is the main reason for the growth of the material properties. An exact parameter to control the chemical and physical process is not the time, but the degree of hydration. Therefore, it is reasonable that development of all material properties and the formation of microstructure should be formulated in terms of degree of hydration. Mathematical formulation of degree of hydration is based on combination of reaction rate functions. The effect of moisture conditions as well as temperature on the rate of reaction is considered in the degree of hydration model. This effect is subdivided into two contributions: water shortage and water distribution. The former is associated with the effect of W/C ratio on the progress of hydration. The water needed for progress of hydration do not exist and there is not enough space for the reaction products to form. The tatter is associated with the effect of free capillary water distribution in the pore system. Physically absorption layer does not contribute to progress of hydration and only free water is available for further hydration. In this study, the effects of chemical composition of cement, W/C ratio, temperature, and moisture conditions on the degree of hydration are considered. Parameters that can be used to indicate or approximate the real degree of hydration are liberated heat of hydration, amount of chemically bound water, and chemical shrinkage, etc. Thus, the degree of heat liberation and adiabatic temperature rise could be determined by prediction of degree of hydration.

Development of Sludge Concentration Estimation Method using Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithm (뉴로-퍼지 알고리즘을 이용한 슬러지 농도 추정 기법 개발)

  • Jang, Sang-Bok;Lee, Ho-Hyun;Lee, Dae-Jong;Kweon, Jin-Hee;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 2015
  • A concentration meter is widely used at purification plants, sewage treatment plants and waste water treatment plants to sort and transfer high concentration sludge and to control the amount of chemical dosage. When the strange substance is contained in the sludge, however, the attenuation of ultrasonic wave could be increased or not be transmitted to the receiver. At that case, the value of concentration meter is higher than the actual density value or vibrated up and down. It has also been difficult to automate the residuals treatment process according to the problems as sludge attachment or damage of a sensor. Multi-beam ultrasonic concentration meter has been developed to solve these problems, but the failure of the ultrasonic beam of a specific concentration measurement value degrade the performance of the entire system. This paper proposes the method to improve the accuracy of sludge concentration rate by choosing reliable sensor values and learning them by proposed algorithm. The prediction algorithm is chosen as neuro-fuzzy model, which is tested by the various experiments.

Characteristics of Shear Strength and Consolidation Behavior of Soft Ground according to Stage Fill (단계성토에 따른 연약지반의 전단강도 및 압밀거동 특성)

  • Bang, Seongtaek
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2020
  • The soft ground in the southwest coastal area composed of marine clay is greatly influenced by sediment composition, particle size distribution, particle shape, adsorption ions and pore water characteristics, tide and temperature. In addition, the geotechnical properties are very complex due to stress history, change in pore water, dissolution process and gas formation. In this study, the physical and mechanical properties of the soft ground were evaluated through field tests and laboratory tests to investigate the strength increase characteristics according to consolidation on the soft ground in the southwest coast. In addition, in order to understand the consolidation behavior of soft ground such as subsidence, pore water pressure, horizontal displacement of soil by embankment load, measuring instruments such as pore water pressuremeter, settlement gauge, inclinometer and differential settlement gauge was installed, and a piezocon penetration test was carried out step by step to confirm the increase in shear strength of the ground. Through this, it was confirmed that the shear strength of the ground is increased according to the stages of filling. In addition, by evaluating the properties of consolidation behavior, strength increase and consolidation prediction by empirical methods and theories were compared to analyze the characteristics of strength increase rate and consolidation behavior in consideration of regional characteristics.