Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.3.213

Development of Statistical Downscaling Model Using Nonstationary Markov Chain  

Kwon, Hyun-Han (Water Resources Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
Kim, Byung-Sik (Water Resources Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.3, 2009 , pp. 213-225 More about this Journal
Abstract
A stationary Markov chain model is a stochastic process with the Markov property. Having the Markov property means that, given the present state, future states are independent of the past states. The Markov chain model has been widely used for water resources design as a main tool. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical properties remain the same for all times. Hence, the stationary Markov chain model basically can not consider the changes of mean or variance. In this regard, a primary objective of this study is to develop a model which is able to make use of exogenous variables. The regression based link functions are employed to dynamically update model parameters given the exogenous variables, and the model parameters are estimated by canonical correlation analysis. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at Seoul station having 46 years data from 1961 to 2006. The model shows a capability to reproduce daily and seasonal characteristics simultaneously. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as a short or mid-term prediction tool if elaborate GCM forecasts are used as a predictor. Also, the nonstationary Markov chain model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are provided as inputs.
Keywords
CCA; Markov Chain model; precipitation; climate change; downscaling;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 김병식, 김형수, 서병하, 김남원 (2003). '전이함수모형과 일기발생모형을 이용한 유역규모 기후변화시나리오의 작성.' 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 345-363   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
2 이창훈, 김승 (1995). '회귀분석에 의한 한국의 연.월평균 강수량의 추정,' 대한토목학회 논문집, 대한토목학회, Vol. 1, No. 5, pp. 1255-1266
3 Haan, C. T., Allen, D. M., and Street, J. O. (1976). 'A Markov chain model of daily rainfall,' Water Resour. Res., Vol. 12, No. 3, pp.443-449   DOI
4 Kim, B.S., Kim, H.S., Seoh, B. H., and Kim, N.W. (2007). 'Impact of climate change on water resources in Yongdam Dam basin, Korea.' Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 355-357   DOI
5 Rajagopalan, B., Lall, U. and Tarboton, D. (1996). 'Nonhomogeneous Markov model for daily precipitation.' Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 33-40   DOI
6 권현한, 문영일, 최병규, 윤용남 (2004) '신뢰성 분석을 통한 기존 댐 재개발의 적정규모 결정의 관한 연구.' 한국수자원학회 논문집, 한국수자원학회, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 97-110   과학기술학회마을   DOI
7 정영훈, 이충성, 김형수, 심명필 (2005). '갑천 유역의 빈도별 갈수유량에 따른 필요유량 산정.' 대한토목학회 논문집, 대한토목학회, Vol. 25, No. 2B, pp.97-105
8 허준행 (1997). '수문통계학의 기초(V).' 한국수문학회지, 한국수문학회, 제30권, 제1호, pp. 88-95   과학기술학회마을
9 Katz, R.W. (1996). 'Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios.' Clim. Change, Vol. 32, pp. 237–255   DOI
10 강경석 (2000). 다지점 일 강우모형에 의한 일 유출량의 모의발생, 인하대학교, 박사논문
11 문영일, 차영일 (2004). '비동질성 마코프 모형을 이용한 일강수자료 모의발생 I-이론-.' 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, Vol. 24, No. 5B, pp. 431-435
12 유철상, 이동률 (2000). '기후변화에 따른 강수일수 및 강수강도의 변화연구.' 대한토목학회 논문집, 대한토목학회, Vol. 20, No. 4B, pp. 535-544
13 Wilks, D.S. (1992). 'Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies.' Clim. Change, Vol. 22, pp. 67–84   DOI
14 Lall, U., Moon, Y.-I, and Bosworth, K. (1993). 'Kernel flood frequency estimators: bandwidth selection and kernel choice.' Water Resources Research, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 1003-1015   DOI   ScienceOn
15 Moon, Y.-I, Lall, U., and Bosworth, K. (1993). 'A comparison of tail probability estimators.' Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 151, pp. 343-363   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Nord, J. (1975). 'Some applications of Markov chains,' Proceedings Fourth Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Science, Tallahas, pp. 125-130