• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power prior

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BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR THE POWER LAW PROCESS WITH THE POWER PRIOR

  • KIM HYUNSOO;CHOI SANGA;KIM SEONG W.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.331-344
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    • 2005
  • Inference on current data could be more reliable if there exist similar data based on previous studies. Ibrahim and Chen (2000) utilize these data to characterize the power prior. The power prior is constructed by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to the power $a_o$, where $0\;{\le}\;a_o\;{\le}\;1$. The power prior is a useful informative prior in Bayesian inference. However, for model selection or model comparison problems, the propriety of the power prior is one of the critical issues. In this paper, we suggest two joint power priors for the power law process and show that they are proper under some conditions. We demonstrate our results with a real dataset and some simulated datasets.

Multiple Comparison for the One-Way ANOVA with the Power Prior

  • Bae, Re-Na;Kang, Yun-Hee;Hong, Min-Young;Kim, Seong-W.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 2008
  • Inference on the present data will be more reliable when the data arising from previous similar studies are available. The data arising from previous studies are referred as historical data. The power prior is defined by the likelihood function based on the historical data to the power $a_0$, where $0\;{\le}\;a_0\;{\le}\;1$. The power prior is a useful informative prior for Bayesian inference such as model selection and model comparison. We utilize the historical data to perform multiple comparison in the one-way ANOVA model. We demonstrate our results with some simulated datasets under a simple order restriction between the treatments.

Bayesian Inference for Predicting the Default Rate Using the Power Prior

  • Kim, Seong-W.;Son, Young-Sook;Choi, Sang-A
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.685-699
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    • 2006
  • Commercial banks and other related areas have developed internal models to better quantify their financial risks. Since an appropriate credit risk model plays a very important role in the risk management at financial institutions, it needs more accurate model which forecasts the credit losses, and statistical inference on that model is required. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating a default rate. It is a Bayesian approach using the power prior which allows for incorporating of historical data to estimate the default rate. Inference on current data could be more reliable if there exist similar data based on previous studies. Ibrahim and Chen (2000) utilize these data to characterize the power prior. It allows for incorporating of historical data to estimate the parameters in the models. We demonstrate our methodologies with a real data set regarding SOHO data and also perform a simulation study.

Noninformative Priors for the Power Law Process

  • Kim, Dal-Ho;Kang, Sang-Gil;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2002
  • This paper considers noninformative priors for the power law process under failure truncation. Jeffreys'priors as well as reference priors are found when one or both parameters are of interest. These priors are compared in the light of how accurately the coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals match the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. It is found that the reference priors have a definite edge over Jeffreys'prior in this respect.

A Study on Bayesian Reliability Evaluation of IPM using Simple Information (단순 수명정보를 이용한 IPM의 베이지안 신뢰도 평가 연구)

  • Jo, Dong Cheol;Koo, Jeong Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2021
  • This paper suggests an approach to evaluate the reliability of an intelligent power module with information deficiency of prior distribution and the characteristics of censored data through Bayesian statistics. This approach used a prior distribution of Bayesian statistics using the lifetime information provided by the manufacturer and compared and evaluated diffuse prior (vague prior) distributions. To overcome the computational complexity of Bayesian posterior distribution, it was computed with Gibbs sampling in the Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result, the standard deviation of the prior distribution developed using simple information was smaller than that of the posterior distribution calculated with the diffuse prior. In addition, it showed excellent error characteristics on RMSE compared with the Kaplan-Meier method.

A algorithm of determining the maximum interface flow limit using merit order (발전비용을 고려한 연계선로 융통조류한계 계산의 알고리즘 제안)

  • Park, You-Kyung;Han, Sang-Wook;Seo, Sang-Soo;Lee, Byong-Jun;Shin, Jeong-Hoon;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.11b
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    • pp.271-273
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    • 2005
  • In KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation)system, 40% of total loads is ones of metropolitan area and large staled generation plants are located out of metropolitan area. Therefore, to decide the maximum power transfer capability of interface line between the regions is essential for planning, control and operation of efficient transmission system. For this reason, prior study suggested calculating the limit of our interface line from the side of voltage stability. However, the presented plan had a limit partially to apply practice power system. Therefore this paper suggests a algorithm that change the generation output as the merit order instead of prior method that distribute according to proportion of present output. This method could be applied closer to practice than the existing algorithm because it consider generation cost.

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Study for the Status and Effectiveness of Science Prior Learning (과학 선행학습의 실태와 그 효과에 대한 연구)

  • Jo, Chang Won;Koo, Min Joo;Park, Jong Keun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.483-492
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    • 2020
  • Considering the fact that many students and parents spend a considerable amount of time and economic power on prior learning and that the environments of internet-based society change rapidly, it is worth examining the status and effectiveness of prior learning. In response, the study surveyed 186 first-year students of A high school in Changwon on the basic status of science prior learning. By the analysis results for the status, 39.8% of the students surveyed said they had experience in prior learning in science. Among the students experienced, 56 students who started science prior learning after the start of winter vacation in the third grade of middle school were analyzed the specific status of science prior learning and the impact of science prior learning on science achievements. The semi-subject form of pre-learning in science showed the highest response rate with 50.0 percent, and the motivation for pre-learning in science was the highest with 33.9 percent improvement in test scores. The confidence and learning intention were positive when conducting prior learning in a semi-subject form, and interest and value were positive when conducting prior learning in a self-directed form. As a result of the survey on the effect of science prior learning, 71.4% of the students who experienced science prior learning showed positive scientific achievement.

A New 19-level PWM Inverter for the Use of Stand-alone Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems (독립형 태양광 발전 시스템을 위한 새로운 19레벨 PWM 인버터)

  • 강필순;오석규;박성준
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.452-461
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    • 2004
  • A novel multilevel PWM inverter is presented for the use of stand-alone photovoltaic power generation system. In appearance, it consists of three full-bridge modules and three cascaded transformers; therefore, the configuration of the proposed multilevel PW inverter is equal to that of a prior 11-level PWM inverter. Only the turn-ratio of a transformer and its corresponding switching function are different from each other. Owing to these differences, the proposed 19-level PWM inverter has two promising advantages. First, output voltage levels increase almost twofold. Consequently, it can generate more sinusoidal output voltage waveform. Second, due to a revised switching pattern, it lightens power imposed on the transformer, which is used for compensating output voltages with chopped pulses between steps. The validity of the proposed inverter system is verified by computer-aided simulations and experimental results based on a 1 [kW] prototype. The performance of the proposed 19-level PWM inverter is compared with the Prior 11-level PWM inverter and other counterparts.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of the Four-Parameter Gamma Distribution

  • Oh, Mi-Ra;Kim, Kyung-Sook;Cho, Wan-Hyun;Son, Young-Sook
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.255-266
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    • 2007
  • A Bayesian estimation of the four-parameter gamma distribution is considered under the noninformative prior. The Bayesian estimators are obtained by the Gibbs sampling. The generation of the shape/power parameter and the power parameter in the Gibbs sampler is implemented using the adaptive rejection sampling algorithm of Gilks and Wild (1992). Also, the location parameter is generated using the adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling algorithm of Gilks, Best and Tan (1995). Finally, the simulation result is presented.

Resistance Development in Au/YBCO Thin Film Meander Lines under High-Power Fault Conditions (과도 사고 시 Au/YBCO 박막 곡선의 저항 거동)

  • Kim, H.R.;Sim, J.;Choi, I.J.;Yim, S.W.;Hyun, O.B.
    • Progress in Superconductivity
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2006
  • We investigated resistance development in $Au/YBa_2Cu_3O_7(YBCO)$ thin film meander lines during high-power faults. The meander lines were fabricated by patterning 300 nm thick YBCO films coated with 200 nm thick gold layers into meander lines. A gold film grown on the back side of the substrate was also patterned into a meander line. The front meander line was connected to a high-power fault-test circuit and the back line to a DC power supply. Resistance of both lines was measured during the fault. They were immersed in liquid nitrogen during the experiment. Behavior of the resistance development prior to quench completion could be understood better by comparing resistance of the front meander lines with that of the back. Quench completion point could be determined clearly. Resistance and temperature at the quench completion point were not affected by applied field strength. The experimental results were analyzed quantitatively with the concept of heat transfer within the meander lines/substrate and to the surrounding liquid nitrogen. In analysis, the fault period was divided into three regions: flux-flow region, region prior to quench completion, and region after quench completion. Resistance was calculated for each region, reflecting the observation for quench completion. The calculated resistance in three regions was joined seamlessly and agreed well with data.

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