• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.206-215
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• 2015

Predicting the changes in the potential distribution of invasive alien plants under climate change is an important and challenging task for the conservation of biodiversity and management of the ecosystems in streams and reservoirs. This study explored the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Paspalum distichum var. indutum in the Korean Peninsula. P. distichum var. indutum is an invasive grass species that has a profound economic and environmental impact in the waterfronts of freshwater ecosystems. The Maxent model was used to estimate the potential distribution of P. distichum var. indutum under current and future climates. A total of nineteen climatic variables of Worldclim 1.4 were used as current climatic data and future climatic data predicted by HadGEM2-AO with both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050. The predicted current distribution of P. distichum var. indutum was almost matched with actual positioning data. Major environmental variables contributing to the potential distribution were precipitation of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Our prediction results for 2050 showed an overall reduction in climatic suitability for P. distichum var. indutum in the current distribution area and its expansion to further inland and in a northerly direction. The predictive model used in this study appeared to be powerful for understanding the potential distribution, exploring the effects of climate change on the habitat changes and providing the effective management of the risk of biological invasion by alien plants.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.149-156
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• 2019

Assessing the hydrological safety of existing dams against climate change and providing appropriate adaptation measures are important in terms of sustainable water supply and management. Korean major dams ensure their safety through periodic inspections and maintenance according to 'Special Act on the safety control and maintenance of establishments'. Especially when performing a full safety examination, principal engineer must assess the hydrological safety and prepare for potential risks. This study employed future probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimated using outputs of regional climate models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse-gas emission scenarios to assess climate change impact on existing dam's future hydrological safety. The analysis period was selected from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100. Evaluating the potential risk based on the future probable maximum flood (PMF) for four major dams (A, B, C, I) showed that climate change could induce increasing the overflow risk on three dams (A, B, I), although there are small differences depending on the RCP scenarios and the analysis periods. Our results suggested that dam managers should consider both non-structural measures and structural measures to adapt to the expected climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.1095-1106
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• 2008

Climate change and global warming are prevalent all over the world in this century and many researchers including hydrologists have studied on the climate change. This study also studied the impact of climate change on streamflows of a basin in Korea. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the streamflows of the Daecheong Dam Basin. Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed on a monthly basis for the year of 1982-1995 and 1996-2005, respectively. The impact of seven 15-year(1988-2002) scenarios were then analyzed for comparing it to the baseline scenario. Among them, scenario 1 was set to show the result of doubling $CO_2$, scenario 2-6 were set to show the results of temperature and precipitation change, and scenario 7 was set to show the result of the combination of climatologic components. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration is predicted to result in an maximum monthly flow increase of 11 percent. Non-linear impacts were predicted among precipitation change scenarios of -42, -17, 17, and 42 percent, which resulted in average annual flow changes in Daecheong Dam Basin of -55, -24, 25, and 64 percent. The changes in streamflow indicate that the Daecheong Dam Basin is very sensitive to potential future climate changes and that these changes could stimulate the increased period or severity of flood or drought events.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.36 no.7
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• pp.506-513
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to establish the greenhouse gases (GHG) inventories and estimate the GHG reduction plans for Daegu University from 2009 to 2011. The annual average of GHG emissions in Daegu University was estimated to be 19,413 ton $CO_2$ eq during the study period. Emissions of electricity usage in Scope 2 most contributed about 55.4% of the total GHG emissions. Also, GHG emissions of Scope 2, Scope 1, and Scope 3 contributed 60.4%, 22.6%, and 17.0%, respectively. In order to estimate reduction potential of GHG, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was calculated using three scenarios such as sensor installation, LED replacement, and solar facility. The GHG will be reduced by 1,656 ton $CO_2$ eq for LED scenario, by 1,041 ton $CO_2$ eq for sensor scenario, and by 737 ton $CO_2$ eq for solar scenario compared to 2020 business as usual (BAU). Therefore, the total GHG emissions in 2020 apply three scenarios can be reduced by 15% compared with 2020 BAU.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.297-305
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• 2016

An approach to assess inadvertent human intrusion into radwaste repository was proposed with the assumption that the intrusion occurs after a loss of knowledge of the hazardous nature of the disposal facility. The essential boundary conditions were derived on the basis of international recommendations, followed by an overall approach to deal with inadvertent human intrusion. The interrelation between societal factors, human intrusion scenarios, and protective measures is described to provide a concrete explanation of the approach, including the detailed procedures to set up the human intrusion scenario. The procedure for deriving protective measures is also explained with four steps, including how to derive a safety framework, general measures, potential measures, and eventual protective measures on the basis of stylized scenarios. It is expected that the approach proposed in this study will be used effectively to reduce the potential for and/or the consequences of human intrusion during the entire process of realizing a disposal facility.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.373-385
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• 2009

A new indexing methodology so called KTH-index was developed to quantitatively evaluate a potential level for tunnel collapse hazard, which has been successfully applied to tunnel construction sites to date. In this study, an attempt is made to apply this methodology for validating an outcome of tunnel design by checking the variation of KTH-index along longitudinal tunnel section. In this KTH-index simulation, it is the most important to determine the input factors reasonably. The design factor and construction condition are set up based on the designed outcome. Uncertain ground conditions are arranged based on borehole test and electro-resistivity survey data. Two scenarios for ground conditions, best and worst scenarios, are set up. From this simulation, it is shown that this methodology could be successfully applied for providing quantitative validity of a tunnel design and also potential hazard factors which should be carefully monitored in construction stage. The hazard factors would affect sensitively the hazard level of the tunnel site under consideration.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.2B
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• pp.107-120
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• 2010

The effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water was assessed using the SLURP (semi-distributed land use-based runoff process), a physically based hydrological model. The fundamental input data (elevation, meteorological data, land use, soil, vegetation) was collected to calibrate and validate of the SLURP model for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang and Gosam) located in Anseongcheon watershed. Then, the CCCma CGCM2 data by SRES (special report on emissions scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) was used to assess the future potential climate change. The future weather data for the year, m ms, m5ms and 2amms was downscaled by Change Factor method through bias-correction using 3m years (1977-2006) weather data of 3 meteorological stations of the watershed. In addition, the future land uses were predicted by modified CA (cellular automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data fromFactosat images. Also the future vegetation cover information was predicted and considered by the linear regression between monthly NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) from NOAA AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using eight years (1998-2006) data.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6B
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• pp.665-673
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• 2008

This study is to assess the future potential climate and land use change impact on streamflow and stream water quality of the study watershed using the established model parameters (I). The CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) based on IPCC SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted for future climate condition, and the data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model technique. The future land use condition was predicted by using modified CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov chain) technique with the past time series of Landsat satellite images. The model was applied for the future extreme precipitation cases of around 2030, 2060 and 2090. The predicted results showed that the runoff ratio increased 8% based on the 2005 precipitation (1160.1 mm) and runoff ratio (65%). Accordingly the Sediment, T-N and T-P also increased 120%, 16% and 10% respectively for the case of 50% precipitation increase. This research has the meaning in providing the methodological procedures for the evaluation of future potential climate and land use changes on watershed hydrology and stream water quality. This model result are expected to plan in advance for healthy and sustainable watershed management and countermeasures of climate change.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.363-376
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• 2023

According to the COVID-19, development of various medical software based on IoT(Internet of Things) was accelerated. Especially, interest in a central software system that can remotely monitor and control ventilators is increasing to solve problems related to the continuous increase in severe COVID-19 patients. Since medical device software is closely related to human life, this study aims to develop central monitoring system that can remotely monitor and control multiple ventilators in compliance with medical device software development standards and to verify performance of system. In addition, to ensure the safety and reliability of this central monitoring system, this study also specifies risk management requirements that can identify hazardous situations and evaluate potential hazards and confirms the implementation of cybersecurity to protect against potential cyber threats, which can have serious consequences for patient safety. As a result, we obtained medical device software manufacturing certificates from MFDS(Ministry of Food and Drug Safety) through technical documents about performance verification, risk management and cybersecurity application.The purpose of this study is to conduct a usability assessment to ensure that ergonomic design has been applied so that the ventilator central monitoring system can improve user satisfaction, efficiency, and safety. The rapid spread of COVID-19, which began in 2019, caused significant damage global medical system. In this situation, the need for a system to monitor multiple patients with ventilators was highlighted as a solution for various problems. Since medical device software is closely related to human life, ensuring their safety and satisfaction is important before their actual deployment in the field. In this study, a total of 21 participants consisting of respiratory staffs conducted usability test according to the use scenarios in the simulated use environment. Nine use scenarios were conducted to derive an average task success rate and opinions on user interface were collected through five-point Likert scale satisfaction evaluation and questionnaire. Participants conducted a total of nine use scenario tasks with an average success rate of 93% and five-point Likert scale satisfaction survey showed a high satisfaction result of 4.7 points on average. Users evaluated that the device would be useful for effectively managing multiple patients with ventilators. However, improvements are required for interfaces associated with task that do not exceed the threshold for task success rate. In addition, even medical devices with sufficient safety and efficiency cannot guarantee absolute safety, so it is suggested to continuously evaluate user feedback even after introducing them to the actual site.