Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering (응용생태공학회)
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Prediction of Changes in the Potential Distribution of a Waterfront Alien Plant, Paspalum distichum var. indutum, under Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula

한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의 분포 변화 예측

  • Received : 2015.07.01
  • Accepted : 2015.08.31
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

Predicting the changes in the potential distribution of invasive alien plants under climate change is an important and challenging task for the conservation of biodiversity and management of the ecosystems in streams and reservoirs. This study explored the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Paspalum distichum var. indutum in the Korean Peninsula. P. distichum var. indutum is an invasive grass species that has a profound economic and environmental impact in the waterfronts of freshwater ecosystems. The Maxent model was used to estimate the potential distribution of P. distichum var. indutum under current and future climates. A total of nineteen climatic variables of Worldclim 1.4 were used as current climatic data and future climatic data predicted by HadGEM2-AO with both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050. The predicted current distribution of P. distichum var. indutum was almost matched with actual positioning data. Major environmental variables contributing to the potential distribution were precipitation of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Our prediction results for 2050 showed an overall reduction in climatic suitability for P. distichum var. indutum in the current distribution area and its expansion to further inland and in a northerly direction. The predictive model used in this study appeared to be powerful for understanding the potential distribution, exploring the effects of climate change on the habitat changes and providing the effective management of the risk of biological invasion by alien plants.

기후변화에 따른 침입외래식물의 잠재적 분포지를 예측하는 것은 하천과 저수지에서 생물다양성 보전과 생태적 관리를 위하여 중요하고 해결해야 할 과제이다. 본 연구에서는 한반도에서 털물참새피 (Paspalum distichum var. indutum)의 잠재적 미래 분포에 미치는 기후변화의 영향을 파악하였다. 털물참새피는 담수생태계의 수변에서 심각한 경제적, 환경적 영향을 미치는 침입 초본식물이다. 현재와 미래의 기후에서 털물참새피의 잠재적 분포를 추정하기 위하여 Maxent 모델을 적용하였다. 기후변화의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 현재 기후 자료로서 Worldclim 1.4의 19개 기후 변수를 사용하였고, 미래의 기후 자료로서 RCP 2.6와 RCP 8.5 시나리오에 따라서 HadGEM2- AO에 의하여 예측된 기후 변수를 사용하였다. 예측된 털물참새피의 현재 잠재분포지는 실제 위치 자료와 거의 일치하였다. 이 식물의 잠재 분포에 영향을 미치는 환경 변수는 가장 따뜻한 분기의 강수량, 연평균기온 및 가장 추운 분기의 평균기온이었다. 2050년에 기후변화에 따른 털물참새피의 분포 예측에 의하면 이 식물의 현재 분포지에서는 기후 적합성이 대체로 감소하였고, 이 식물이 보다 내륙과 북쪽으로 분포지가 확대되었다. 본 연구에서 사용한 예측 모델은 잠재적 분포를 이해하고 분포 변화에 미치는 기후변화의 영향을 파악하며 외래식물에 의한 생물적 침입의 위해성을 효과적으로 관리하는데 유용할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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