Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2010.30.2B.107

Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation, Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (I) - Preparation of Input Data for the Model -  

Park, Geun-Ae (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Lee, Yong-Jun (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Shin, Hyung-Jin (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Kim, Seong-Joon (건국대학교 환경시스템학부 사회환경시스템공학과)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.30, no.2B, 2010 , pp. 107-120 More about this Journal
Abstract
The effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water was assessed using the SLURP (semi-distributed land use-based runoff process), a physically based hydrological model. The fundamental input data (elevation, meteorological data, land use, soil, vegetation) was collected to calibrate and validate of the SLURP model for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang and Gosam) located in Anseongcheon watershed. Then, the CCCma CGCM2 data by SRES (special report on emissions scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) was used to assess the future potential climate change. The future weather data for the year, m ms, m5ms and 2amms was downscaled by Change Factor method through bias-correction using 3m years (1977-2006) weather data of 3 meteorological stations of the watershed. In addition, the future land uses were predicted by modified CA (cellular automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data fromFactosat images. Also the future vegetation cover information was predicted and considered by the linear regression between monthly NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) from NOAA AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using eight years (1998-2006) data.
Keywords
SLURP; Agricultural reservoir; CGCM2; Climate change; Modified CA-Markov technique; NDVI; Future land use;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 한국환경정책평가연구원(2004) 기후변화영향평가모형 개발-물관리 부문을 중심으로.
2 Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Siebert, S. (1997) Global change and global scenarios ofwater use and availability: an application of WaterGAP 1.0. Report A9701. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany.
3 Benedetti, R., Rossini, P., and Taddei, R. (1994) Vegetation classification in the middle Mediterranean area by satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 583-596.   DOI   ScienceOn
4 Bergstrom, S., Carlsson, B., Gardelin, M., Lindstrom, G., Pettersson, A., and Rummukainen, M. (2001) Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Climate Research, Vol. 16, pp. 101-112.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Birth, G.S. and McVey, G. (1968) Measuring the color of growing turf with a reflectance spectroradiometer. Agronomy Journal, Vol. 60, pp. 640-643.   DOI
6 Brekke, L.D., Miller, N.L., Bashford, K.E., Quinn, N.W.T., and Dracup, J.A. (2004) Climate change impacts uncertainty for water resources in the San Joaquin River Basin, California. American Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 149-164.   DOI
7 Chiew, F.H.S. and McMahon, T.A. (1993) Detection of trend or change in annual flow of australian rivers. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 13, pp. 643-653.   DOI
8 Diaz-Nieto, J. and Wilby, R.L. (2005) A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: Impacts on low flows in the River Thames, UK. Clim. Change, Vol. 69, pp. 245-268.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Drogue, G., Pfister, L., Leviandier, T., Idrissi, A.E., Iffly, J.F., Matgen, P., Humbert, J., and Hoffmann, L. (2004) Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 293, pp. 255-269.   DOI   ScienceOn
10 Gellens, D. and Rouline, E. (1998) Streamflow responses of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 210, pp. 242-258.   DOI   ScienceOn
11 IPCC (2001a) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
12 Justice, C.O., Townsend, J.R., Holben, B.N., and Tucker, C.J. (1985) Analysis of the phenology of global vegetation using meteorological satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, No. 8, pp. 1319-1334.   DOI   ScienceOn
13 Khul, S.C. and Miller, J.R. (1992) Seasonal runoff calculated from a global atmospheric circulation model. Wat. Resour. Res., Vol. 28, pp. 2029-2039.   DOI
14 Kite, G.W. (1993) Application of a land class hydrological model to climate change. Water Resource Research, Vol. 29, No. 7, pp. 2377-2384.   DOI   ScienceOn
15 Kite, G.W. and Haberlant, U. (1999) Atmospheric model data for macroscale hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 217, pp. 303-313.   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Kite, G.W., Dalton, A., and Dion, K. (1994) Simulation of streamflow in a macro-scale watershed using GCM data. Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 1546-1559.
17 Kite, G.W., Danard, M., and Li, B. (1998) Simulating long series of streamflow using datafrom an atmospheric model. Hydrologic Science Journal, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 391-408.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Kwadijk, J. and Rotmans, J. (1995) The impact of climate change on the discharge of the river. Rhine: a scenario study. Climate Change, Vol. 30, pp. 397-426.   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Lins, H.F. (1994) Increasing U.S. Streamflow Linked to Greenhouse Forcing. EOS, Vol. 75, No. 25, June 21.
20 권형중(2006) SWSI 기반의 준분포형 수문학적 가뭄평가기법 개발, 박사학위논문, 건국대학교.
21 김병식, 김형수, 서병하, 김남원(2004) 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 유출에 미치는 영향, 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제37권 제2호, pp. 185-193.   과학기술학회마을
22 김병식, 서병하, 김형수, 김남원(2003) SLURP 모형을 이용한 하천유출량 모의, 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제23권 제4B호, pp. 289-303.
23 김영오(1998) 기후 변화를 고려한 수자원 관리 기법, 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제31권 제4호, pp. 407-413.
24 박민지, 박근애, 김성준(2007) 농업용 저수지 운영을 고려한 SLURP 모형의 수문학적 거동 분석, 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제27권 제5B호, pp. 515-523.
25 배덕효, 정일원, 권원태(2007) 수자원에 대한 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 고해상도 시나리오 생산(I) : 유역별 기후시나리오구축, 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제40권 제3호, pp. 191-204.   과학기술학회마을
26 신사철, 정 수, 김경탁, 김주훈, 박정술(2006) NDVI를 이용한 가뭄지역 검출 및 부족수분량 산정, 한국지리정보학회지, 한국지리정보학회, 제9권 제2호, pp. 102-114.
27 안재현, 유철상, 윤용남(2001) GCM 결과를 이용한 지구온난화 에 따른 대청댐 유역의 수문환경 변화 분석, 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제34권 제4호, pp. 335-345.
28 안소라, 이용준, 박근애, 김성준(2008) 미래토지이용 및 기후변화에 따른 하천유역의 유출특성 분석, 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제28권 제2B호, pp. 215-224.
29 오성남, 하경자, 김기영, 김정우(1998) 배증 이산화탄소 기후에 따른 동북아시아 지역의 수문 영향, 한국기후학회지, 한국기후학회, 제34권 제2호, pp. 293-305.
30 이용준(2008) SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후 및 토지이용변화에 따른 비점원 오염 거동 분석, 석사학위논문, 건국대학교
31 임혁진, 권형중, 배덕효, 김성준(2006) CA-Markov 기법을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 소양강댐 유역의 수문분석, 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제39권 제5호, pp. 453-466.   과학기술학회마을
32 한국과학기술연구원(1995) 기후변화가 한반도에 미치는 영향에 관한 심포지움: 기후변화가 한반도에 미치는 영향과 지구환경관련 대책 연구, 과학기술처.
33 Townshend J.R.G. and Justice C.O. (1986) Analysis of the dynamics of African vegetation using the normalized difference vegetation index. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 7, pp. 1435-1445.   DOI   ScienceOn
34 Prince, S.D. and Astle, W.L. (1986) Satellite remote sensing of rangelands in Botswana. I. Landsat MSS and herbaceous vegetation. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 7, pp.1533-1553.   DOI   ScienceOn
35 Sabourin, J.F. and Associates (1996) Implementation of a distributed hydrologic model: using SLURP on the Carp watershed. CCRS, Ottawa, Vol. 43.
36 Sefton, C.E.M. and Boorman, D.B. (1997) A regional investigation of climate change impacts on UK streamflows. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 195, pp. 26-44.   DOI
37 Tucker, C.J., Vanpraet, C.L., Sharman, J., and Van Ittersum, G. (1985a) Satellite remote sensing of total herbaceous biomass production in the Senegalese Sahel: 1980-84. Remote Sensing Environ., Vol. 17, pp. 233-249.   DOI   ScienceOn
38 Tucker, C.J., Townshend, J.R.G., and Goff, T.E. (1985b) African land cover classification using satellite data. Science, Vol. 227, pp. 369-375.   DOI
39 Zhang, X., Srinivasan, R., and Hao, F. (2007) Predicting hydrologic response to climate change in the Luohe River Basin using the SWAT model. ASABE, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 901-910.   DOI
40 Zhu, T., Jenkins, M.W., and Lund, J.R. (2005) Estimated impacts of climate warming on California water availability under twelve future climate scenarios. American Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 5, pp. 1027-1038.   DOI   ScienceOn