Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Hydrological Safety Perspectives of Existing Dams

기후변화에 따른 댐의 수문학적 안전성 평가 및 적응방안 고찰

  • Received : 2019.10.12
  • Accepted : 2019.12.04
  • Published : 2019.12.30
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Abstract

Assessing the hydrological safety of existing dams against climate change and providing appropriate adaptation measures are important in terms of sustainable water supply and management. Korean major dams ensure their safety through periodic inspections and maintenance according to 'Special Act on the safety control and maintenance of establishments'. Especially when performing a full safety examination, principal engineer must assess the hydrological safety and prepare for potential risks. This study employed future probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimated using outputs of regional climate models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse-gas emission scenarios to assess climate change impact on existing dam's future hydrological safety. The analysis period was selected from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100. Evaluating the potential risk based on the future probable maximum flood (PMF) for four major dams (A, B, C, I) showed that climate change could induce increasing the overflow risk on three dams (A, B, I), although there are small differences depending on the RCP scenarios and the analysis periods. Our results suggested that dam managers should consider both non-structural measures and structural measures to adapt to the expected climate change.

기후변화에 대한 기존 댐의 수문학적 안전성을 평가하고 적응방안을 마련하는 것은 장기적인 물공급과 관리 측면에서 중요하다. 국내 주요 댐은 '시설물의 안전 및 유지관리에 관한 특별법'에 따른 주기적인 점검과 유지보수를 통해 안전을 확보하도록 하고 있다. 특히 정밀안전진단을 수행할 경우에는 가능최대강수량(PMP)을 이용한 수문학적 안전성을 평가하고 위험에 대비하도록 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 댐의 수문학적 안전성에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 온실가스 배출시나리오에 기반해 산정한 미래 가능최대강수량(PMP)을 이용하였다. 분석기간은 2011년~2040년, 2041년~2070년, 2071년~2100년으로 선정하였다. 국내 4개 댐(A, B, C, I)을 대상으로 가능최대홍수량(PMF)에 대해 평가한 결과 RCP 시나리오와 분석기간에 따라 다소 차이는 있으나 기후변화가 3개 댐(A, B, I)의 월류 위험성을 증가시킬 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 기존 댐의 기후변화 적응을 위해서는 비구조적 대책과 더불어 장기적인 구조적 대책 마련도 필요함을 시사하였다.

Keywords

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