• 제목/요약/키워드: Possibility Theory

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불확실성의 수학 : 확률론과 개연론 (Mathematics of Uncertainty: Probability and Possibility)

  • 고영미;이상욱
    • 한국수학사학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2012
  • 수학은 엄밀성을 강조하는 학문이다. 그러나 사회가 복잡해지고 정보가 많아지면서 수학이 엄밀하지 않은 정보를 다루어야 하는 요구가 발생하게 되었다. 최근 이러한 불확실성을 갖는 정보를 엄밀성을 갖춘 정보로 변환하는 수단으로서 개연론에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 논문은 임의성 (randomness) 을 다루는 확률론 (probability theory)과 비교하여 모호성 (vagueness) 을 다루는 개연론 (possibility theory) 을 개괄한다.

RISK-INFORMED REGULATION: HANDLING UNCERTAINTY FOR A RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF SAFETY

  • Zio, Enrico
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제40권5호
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    • pp.327-348
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    • 2008
  • A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.

각종 보조설비가 연계된 열병합발전시스템에서 가능성 퍼지이론을 적용한 최적운전계획수립 (Optimal Operation Scheduling Using Possibility Fuzzy Theory on Cogeneration Systems Connected with Auxiliary Equipment)

  • 김성일;정창호;이종범
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1995년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부
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    • pp.128-130
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    • 1995
  • This paper presents the optimal operation scheduling on cogeneration systems connected with auxiliary equipment by using the possibility fuzzy theory. The probability fuzzy theory is a method to obtain the possibility of the solution from the fuzzification of coefficients. Simulation is carried out to obtain the boundary of heat production in each time interval. Simulation results shows effectively the flexible operation boundary to establish operation scheduling.

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열병합발전시스템에서 가능성 퍼지이론을 적용한 단기운전계획수립 (Short-term Operation Scheduling Using Possibility Fuzzy Theory on Cogeneration System Connected with Auxiliary Devices)

  • Kim, Sung-Il;Jung, Chang-Ho;Lee, Jong-Beom
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 1997
  • 본 논문은 각종 보조설비가 연계된 열병합발전시스템에서 가능성 퍼지이론을 이용한 단기운전계획 수립을 나타내고 있다. 가능성 퍼지이론은 계수에 퍼지성을 부여하여 해의 가능성의 범위를 구하는 이론으로서 논문에서는 열출력의 최대값에 퍼지성을 부여하였다. 시뮬레이션은 각 시간대별 열출력의 운전가능범위를 구하는 방향으로 수행되어졌으며 그 결과로서 유연한 운전범위 값을 얻었으며 효과적인 운전계획이 수립되었다.

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Kinematic GPS Positioning with Baseline Length Constraint Using the Maximum Possibility Estimation Method

  • Wang, Xinzhou;Xu, Chengquan
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 International Symposium on GPS/GNSS Vol.2
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    • pp.247-250
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    • 2006
  • Based on the possibility theory and the fuzzy set, the Maximum Possibility Estimation method and its applications in kinematic GPS positioning are presented in this paper. Firstly, the principle and the optimal criterion of the Maximum Possibility Estimation method are explained. Secondly, the kinematic GPS positioning model of single epoch single frequency with baseline length constraint is developed. Then, the authors introduce the artificial immune algorithm and use this algorithm to search the global optimum of the Maximum Possibility Estimation model. The results of some examples show that the method is efficient for kinematic GPS positioning.

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가능성 이론을 이용한 전력계통 고장진단 (Power System Fault Diagnosis using Possibility Theory)

  • 이흥재;이철균;박등용;김성희;안복신
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.665-670
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    • 1999
  • This paper introduces a fuzzy expert systems for fault diagnosis, where the causal relationships between faults and protective devices are defined as fuzzy relations. The uncertainties existing in the fault diagnosis are figured out using the possibility theory and the possibility measure is associated with the fuzzy relation to evaluate the possibilities of faults. Besides, the knowledge base in the expert system is described and explained. In this way, multiple-fault can be handled easily and simultaneously together with single faults.

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Operations on Generalized Intuitionistic Fuzzy Soft Sets

  • Park, Jin-Han
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.184-189
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    • 2011
  • Generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set theory, proposed by Park et al. [Journal of Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems 21(3) (2011) 389-394], has been regarded as an effective mathematical tool to deal with uncertainties. In this paper, we prove that certain De Margan's law hold in generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set theory with respect to union and intersection operations on generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets. We discuss the basic properties of operations on generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets such as necessity and possibility. Moreover, we illustrate their interconnections between each other.

연구개발사업 우선순위 설정에 있어서 다속성효용이론(MAUT)과 계층분석과정(AHP)의 비교 (A Comparitive Study of MAUT and AHP in Priority Setting of R&B Projects)

  • 박주형;김정흠
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.201-218
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    • 1999
  • The article contains an introduction of possibility of applying Multi-Attribute Utility Theory(MAUT) for priority setting of R&D projects. MAUT is compared with AHP, which is widely used recently. These two techuiques are applied to set priorities of R&D projects In a Government-funded Research Institute. Six criteria are chosen from consultation with decision makers. They are composed of 1) validity as representative projects, 2) possibility of resource mobilization, 3) spillover effect of developed technologies, 4) possibility of success, 5) scope of participation and 6) clarity of research goal. To set priorities of R&D projects, SMART(Simple MultiAttribute Rating Technique) and DVM(Difference Value Measurement) out of many MAUT methods are used to design the utility function and to determine the weights among criteria. The aggregation model is additive on the assumption the criteria are independent. AHP executes pairwise comparisons for criteria and alternatives. From the results of the case study, the results and theoretical characteristics are compared.

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퍼지 집합 이론을 이용한 공급지장 기대치의 산정 (LOLE(Loss of Load Expctatiom) Evaluation using Fuzzy Set Theory)

  • 심재홍;정현수;김진오
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제48권9호
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    • pp.1055-1063
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    • 1999
  • This paper present a conceptual possibilistic approach using fuzzy set theory to manage the uncertainties in the given reliability input date of the practical power system. In this paper, an algorithm is introduced to calculate the possibilstic reliability indices according to the degree of uncertainty in the given data. The probability distribution function can be transformed into an appropriate possibilstic representation using the probability-Possibility Consistency principle(PPCP) algorithm. In this the algorithm, the transformation is performation by making a compromise between the transformation consistency and the human updating experience. Fuzzy classifcation theory is applied to reduced the number of load data. The fuzzy classification method determines the closeness of load data points by assigning them to various clusters and then determening the distance between the clusters. The IEEE-RTS with 32-generating units is used to demonstrate the capability of the proposed algorithm.

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제도로서의 예술과 환경 (Art as an Institution and Environment)

  • 조정송
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 1985
  • ^x This study is an attempt to present the possibility of environmental aesthetics and its characteristic form in Korea. This paper investigated the concept of art as a traditional theory of aesthetics through R.G. Collingwood and present- day analytic philosophers who had been influenced by the ordinary language philosophers in 1950s. Accordingly, the study focused on the institutional theory of art which was developed in reaction to M. Weitz′s views. The institutional theory of art concentrates attention on the nonexhibited characteristics that works of art have An virtue of being embedded in an institutional matrix which may be called "the artworld"and argues that these characteristics are essential and defining. Taking this position, the paper examined the relation between environment and art as aesthetic object because it would be one of the ways to find tole possibility and foundation of environmental aesthetics. Furthermore, these works will be the basis to create our proper landscape or ′our own environment′as a significant and a mental cultural landscape.

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