• Title/Summary/Keyword: Population Growth Rate

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A Comparative Study on Prediction Performance of the Bankruptcy Prediction Models for General Contractors in Korea Construction Industry

  • Seung-Kyu Yoo;Jae-Kyu Choi;Ju-Hyung Kim;Jae-Jun Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.432-438
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of the present thesis is to develop bankruptcy prediction models capable of being applied to the Korean construction industry and to deduce an optimal model through comparative evaluation of final developed models. A study population was selected as general contractors in the Korean construction industry. In order to ease the sample securing and reliability of data, it was limited to general contractors receiving external audit from the government. The study samples are divided into a bankrupt company group and a non-bankrupt company group. The bankruptcy, insolvency, declaration of insolvency, workout and corporate reorganization were used as selection criteria of a bankrupt company. A company that is not included in the selection criteria of the bankrupt company group was selected as a non-bankrupt company. Accordingly, the study sample is composed of a total of 112 samples and is composed of 48 bankrupt companies and 64 non-bankrupt companies. A financial ratio was used as early predictors for development of an estimation model. A total of 90 financial ratios were used and were divided into growth, profitability, productivity and added value. The MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) model and BLRA (Binary Logistic Regression Analysis) model were used for development of bankruptcy prediction models. The MDA model is an analysis method often used in the past bankruptcy prediction literature, and the BLRA is an analysis method capable of avoiding equal variance assumption. The stepwise (MDA) and forward stepwise method (BLRA) were used for selection of predictor variables in case of model construction. Twenty two variables were finally used in MDA and BLRA models according to timing of bankruptcy. The ROC-Curve Analysis and Classification Analysis were used for analysis of prediction performance of estimation models. The correct classification rate of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows: 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 83.04%, BLRA: 93.75%); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 77.68%, BLRA: 78.57%); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 84.82%, BLRA: 91.96%). The AUC (Area Under Curve) of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows. : 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.933, BLRA: 0.978); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.852, BLRA: 0.875); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.938, BLRA: 0.975). As a result of the present research, accuracy of the BLRA model is higher than the MDA model and its prediction performance is improved.

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Effect of the Concentration of Humic Acid on Growth and Yield of Organically Cultivated Hot-Pepper (휴믹산 농도가 유기농 고추의 생육 및 수량에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Min-Jeong;Shim, Chang-Ki;Kim, Yong-Ki;Park, Jong-Ho;Han, Eun-Jung;Ko, Byong-Gu
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of humic acid on the germination, the growth and the yield of hot pepper when treated with organic hot pepper seedlings and growing season. The germination rate of 0.05% and 0.1% humic acid was higher than that of untreated, but the germination rates of 0.4% and 1.0% humic acid were 90.0% and 86.7%, respectively, compared with the control treatment (96.7%). At 30 days after transplanting, hot pepper treated with low (0.05%) or high (1.0%) concentration of humic acid decreased the growth of hot pepper seedlings, whereas 0.2% humic acid treatment significantly increased a average height (97.6 cm), leaf number (84.7) and fresh weight ($128.1g\;plant^{-1}$) of hot pepper. After 60 days of treatment with humic acid, the height of hot pepper was significantly longer in 0.2% humic acid. The mean green fruit number of 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.05% humic acid were not significantly different among the treatments, but the mean green pepper number of 0.4% and 1.0% humic acid treatments were the higher with 35.2% and 29.1%, respectively than other treatments. However, the fresh weight of green pepper was found to be $111.5g\;plant^{-1}$ more heavier than the untreated in 0.2% humic acid. The total ($5.8kg\;plant^{-1}$) and average ($1.4kg\;plant^{-1}$) fresh weight of pepper were higher than that of untreated control, except for the 1.0% humic acid treatment after 60 days of soil irrigation. The total weight of hot pepper treated with 0.2% and 0.1% humic acid treatment was $9.3kg\;plant^{-1}$ and $8.6kg\;plant^{-1}$, respectively, which were heavier than the other treatments. The effect of humic acid concentrations on soil microbial populations, pH and EC was investigated. The soil bacterial population density of 0.2% humic acid treatment was 3.5 times higher than that of untreated control soil. As the concentration of humic acid increased from 0.05% to 1.0%, pH and EC of hot pepper grown soil also increased.

Bifidogenic Effects of Inuloprebiotics in Broiler Chickens (이눌로프리바이오틱스의 브로일러에 대한 비피더스균 활성 효과)

  • Park, Byung-Sung
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.1693-1699
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    • 2008
  • Recent studies have suggested that inulin might be utilized as a prebiotics for the promotion of antimicrobial growth, but a major obstacle to the use of inulin has been its low bifidogenic effects, which were initially observed in the ceca of broiler chickens. Inulin has some problems with related to denaturation in air and lowering passage rate from upper digestive tract to caecum. To solve this problems, a newly developed compound derived by microencapsulation, inuloprebiotics, was hypothesized to enrich cecal bifidobacterial populations and reduce the colonization levels of Salmonella in the ceca of broiler chickens. The in vitro growth of intestinal beneficial bacteria including Bifidobacterium longum, Bifidobacterium bifidum, Lactobacillus acidophilus, and Lactobacillus casei grew effectively on the medium containing inulin, whereas the growth of Streptococcus aureus and Clostridium perfringens was not differences among the treatment groups. Broiler chickens consumed chow diets containing 0.5%, 0.7% or 1.0% inuloprebiotics, or a control diet without inuloprebiotics supplementation. The chickens on the inuloprebioticssupplemented diets evidenced significantly higher cecal levels of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus species as compared with the chickens on the control diet. The population of cecal E. coli and Salmonella was specifically reduced as the result of treatment with inuloprebiotics. However, we noted no significant differences in Bifidobacterium species, E. coli and Salmonella counts among the inuloprebiotics treatment groups. The inuloprebiotics-supplemented diets induced an increase in the serum IgG concentration. The thymus index was significantly increased in the broiler chickens that consumed diets containing 0.7% or 1.0% inuloprebiotics, with the exception of the chickens consuming the diet supplemented with 0.5% inuloprebiotics. These results indicate that the inuloprebiotic preparations exerted an immune system-promoting effect or selectively enriched the cecal Bifidobacterium species populations in the broiler chickens, and also suggest that inuloprebiotics may prove useful as a stable natural antimicrobial agent.

Improvement of Water Quality Using Ultra Filtration System in Artificial Seed Production of Olive Flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus (넙치 인공종묘생산에 있어 막분리 여과 시스템을 이용한 수질환경의 개선)

  • Jung Gwan Sik;Ann Chang Bum;Oh Myung Joo;Ji Seung Cheol;Yoo Jin Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.639-643
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    • 2002
  • Water quality, bacterial phase and fish growth rate were analyzed in the process of artificial seed production of flounder (Paralichtys oliraceus) larvae to investigate the water quality in rearing tank using Ultra Filtration System (UES). Sand Filtration System (SFS) and Ultra Filtration System (Ins) were set up in the experimental group. For the analysis of water quality, pH, salinity, DO, SS, COD, $NH_{4}^{+},\;NO_{2}^{-},\;NO^-,\;DIN$ (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) and DU (dissolved inorganic phosphate) were measured. There was no data difference between SFS group and UES group in most analysis items, but the UEs group showed low salinity and low 55 values, such that salinity was $33.5\%_{\circ}$ in SES group and $30.2\%_{\circ}$ in WS group and 55 was 15.5 mL/L in SES group and 7.0 mL/L for UPS group. For changes in bacterial phase and TBC (Total Bacterial Counts), in SES group, 6$\times$10^{5}CFU/mL in seawater decreased to the ratio of about 116, and TBC, Genus Vibrio and bacteria in the Genus Acinetobacter and Genus Micrococcus sharply increased after nine days, while stable bacterial phase was maintained low in UES group during the experiment except for Genus Ajteromonas. In the growth of the larvae, fish length was 17.0 mm (SGR 14.0) in the SES group and 18.8 mm (SGR 14.3) in the UFS group. It is concluded that when water is supplied for artificial seed production with WS, stabilization of water quality condition and inhibition of bacterial multiplication are possible. When production environment becomes stable, stable growth of fish becomes possible by reduction of environmental stress.

Estimating the Dimension of a Crosswalk in Urban Area - Focusing on Width and Stop Line - (도시부 횡단보도 제원 산정에 관한 연구 - 폭과 정지선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Yoomi;Park, Jejin;Kwon, Sungdae;Ha, Taejun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.847-856
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    • 2016
  • Recently, with a high level of economic growth, rapid urbanization, population, environment and housing problems were accompanied in Korea. In particular, the traffic problem has become a serious social problem. As the current transportation policy has been carried out, concentrating on traffic flow, in 2015, death rate for pedestrians while walking (1,795 persons) is 38.8% compared to entire death rate in car accident (4,621 persons), so there is need to solve it. Although, crosswalk should make pedestrian cross it safely, it has been made on the basis of the width of road without exact standard for current width of the crosswalk and the location of stop line. Moreover, in the area around many campuses or commercial facilities, crosswalks are set with not considering pedestrian passage, but designed uniformly. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate reasonable dimension of crosswalk considering pedestrian traffic and walking speed and it makes the accident rate lower in the crosswalk, which has a lot of problems including decisions of vehicle traffic signal time, lack of pedestrian's signal timing, pedestrian's crossing of long-distance. The following are the methodology of the study. Firstly, for crosswalk calculation of specifications, examination relating existing regulations and researches dealing with crosswalk, pedestrians and stop line is needed. After analyzing problems of current width of crosswalk and stop line, present the methodology to calculation of specifications and basing on these things, calculation of specifications for crosswalk will be decided. In conclusion, the calculation of specification and improvement of stop line for crosswalk laid out in this study are expected to be utilized as base data in case of establishing relevant safety facilities and standards.

Managing Technological Risk and Risk Conflict : Public Debates on Health Risks of Mobile Phones EMF (기술위험 관리와 위험갈등 : 휴대전화 전자파의 인체유해성 논란)

  • Jung, Byung-Kul
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.97-129
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    • 2008
  • We are living in the time of high probability of technological risk due to increased rate of technology development and diffusion of new technologies. Resolving uncertainties, the basic attribution of risk, by accumulating knowledge over the risk factors of certain technology is critical to management of technological risk. In many cases of technological risks, high uncertainty of knowledge is commonly mentioned reason for public controversies on risk management. However, the type of technological risk with low social agreement and low uncertainty of knowledge, the main reason for public controversy is absence of social agreement. Public debates on the risks of mobile phones electromagnetic fields(EMF) to human health comes under this category. The knowledge uncertainty on human health effect of mobile phones EMF has been lowered increasingly by accumulating enormous volume of knowledge though scientists have not reached a final conclusion whether it pose a risk to the physical and mental health of the general population or not. In contrast with civil organizations calling for precautionary approach based regulation, the mobile phone industry is cling to the position of no-regulation-needed by arguing no clear evidence to prove health risks of mobile phone EMF has found. In Korea, government set exposure standards based on a measurement called the 'specific absorption rate'(SAR) and require the mobile phone industry to open SAR information to the public by their own decision. From the view of pro-regulation side based on precautionary approach, technology risk managament of mobile phones EMF in Korea is highly limited and formalized one with limited measuring of SAR on head part only and problematic self-regulated opening of information about SAR to the public. As far as the government keeps having priority on protecting interest of mobile phone industry over precautionary regulation of mobile phones EMF, the disagreement between civil organizations and the government will not resolved. The risk of mobile phones EMF to human health have high probability of being underestimated in the rate and damage of risk than objectively estimated ones due to familiarity of mobile phone technology. And this can be the cause of destructive social dispute or devastating disaster. To prevent such disastrous results, technology risk management, which integrating the goals of safety with economic growth in public policy and designing and promoting risk communication, is required.

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Biological Control of Root-knot Nematode by Streptomyces sampsonii KK1024 (Streptomyces sampsonii KK1024를 이용한 뿌리혹선충 (Root-knot nematode)의 생물학적 방제)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Kang, Seon-I;Kim, Jin-Si;Lee, Yong-Sung;Hong, Sung-Hyun;Naing, Kyaw Wai;Kim, Kil-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1150-1157
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    • 2011
  • Streptomyces sampsonii KK1024 having strong chitinolytic activity was isolated from crab-shell rich soil at Muan, Jeolanamdo. The KK1024 produced chitinase, protease, gelatinase and lipase. When 50% of KK1024 culture broth was treated to juveniles and eggs of root-knot nematode, juvenile mortality at 3 days was 81.67% and egg hatch rate at 5 days was 2.00%. When $183.7{\mu}g\;mL^{-1}$ of crude enzyme produced by KK1024 was treated, juvenile mortality at 3 days was 96.00% and egg hatch rate at 5 days was 5.33%. At 1% of butanol extract from KK1024, juvenile mortality was highest with 90.00% and egg hatch rate was lowest with 0%. The comparison of the effect of KK1024 culture broth with only medium, synthetic fertilizer, and commercial nematicide on tomato growth and nematode infection was examined in pot trials. KK1024 culture broth showed lower number of egg mass and gall in plant, and population of juveniles in soil compared with only medium and synthetic fertilizer treatment, but not in commercial nematicide. However, the highest shoot weight and length was discovered in KK1024 culture broth. These results suggest that Streptomyces sampsonii KK1024 producing lytic enzymes and nematicidal compounds can be one of candidates for biocontrol agents against root-knot nematodes.

Effects of Temperature Conditions on the Growth and Oviposition of Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens $St{\aa}l$ (온도조건(溫度條件)이 벼멸구의 발육(發育) 및 산란(産卵)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Bae, Soon-Do;Song, Yoo-Han;Park, Yeong-Do
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.26 no.1 s.70
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 1987
  • This study was conducted to know the effects of temperature conditions on the growth and oviposition of the brown planthopper(BPH), Nilaparvata lugens $St{\aa}l$. Results obtained were to predict the timing of the BPH control by measuring population dynamics of the BPH in response to temperature fluctuations upon migration of the insects in paddy fields. Developmental and ovipositional rates under constant and alternating temperature conditions were observed in a plant growth cabinet. Hatchabilities of eggs of the BPH were the highest at $25^{\circ}C$ and were decreased below or above the optimum temperature. Egg periods were the shortest at $27.5^{\circ}C$ and prolonged with decreasing temperature, but retarded at higher temperature above $30^{\circ}C$. Adult emergence rates were the highest at $27.5^{\circ}C$ and reduced with decreasing temperature, and no adult emerged at $32.5^{\circ}C$ and $35^{\circ}C$. Developmental period of nymph was the shortest at both $27.5^{\circ}C$ and $30^{\circ}C$, but extended with decreasing temperature. Female longevity was increased with decreasing temperature and the male longevity was the shortest at $27.5^{\circ}C$. Preoviposition period was the shortest at $32.5^{\circ}C$, but prolonged with decreasing temperature. It was about 6.5 times longer at $17.5^{\circ}C$ than that at $32.5^{\circ}C$. Number of eggs oviposited per female was the greatest at $25^{\circ}C$, but decreased at the temperature below or above the optimum. Under the same total effective day-degrees, hatchabilty at the alternating temperature was about 10% higher than that at the constant temperature but egg period at the alternating temperature was nearly identical as that at the constant. Under the $22^{\circ}C$ condition, emergence rate was about 8% higher at the alternating temperature than that at the constant, however, at the $28^{\circ}C$, the rate was about 8% higher at the constant than that at the alternating. Nymphal period was about $4{\sim}6$ days longer at the alternating temperature than that at the constant. Under the same total effective day-degrees in adult stage, both longevity and oviposition period were longer at alternating temperature than those at the constant. Number of eggs oviposited per female was also higher at the alternating. Longevities of females reared under $28^{\circ}C$ of constant temperature was the longest no matter what temperatures they were exposed after the emergence. This result seems to be indicating that female longevity is greatly influenced by the temperature to which they were exposed durings immature stages. Preoviposition period was affected by the temperature exposed during the nympal and adult stage whereas the number of eggs oviposited was affected by the temperature during the adult stage only. Based on the results from this study, the developmental threshold temperatures seem to be $14.12^{\circ}C$ for eggs, $14.76^{\circ}C$ for nymphs, $9.62^{\circ}C$ for adults, and $15.95^{\circ}C$ for preoviposition period. Estimated values of the total effective temperature for completing each stage were 141.25 day-degrees for eggs, 167.83 day-degrees for nymphs, 349.64 day-degrees for adults, and 58.60 day-degrees for preoviposition.

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Future Direction of National Health Insurance (국민건강보험 발전방향)

  • Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.273-275
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    • 2017
  • It has been forty years since the implementation of National Health Insurance (NHI) in South Korea. Following the 1977 legislature mandating medical insurance for employees and dependents in firms with more than 500 employees, South Korea expanded its health insurance to urban residents in 1989. Resultantly, total expenses of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) have greatly increased from 4.5 billion won in 1977 to 50.89 trillion won in 2016. With multiple insurers merging into the NHI system in 2000, a single-payer healthcare system emerged, along with separation policy of prescribing and dispensing. Following such reform, an emerging financial crisis required injections from the National Health Promotion Fund. Forty years following the introduction of the NHI system, both praise and criticism have been drawn. In just 12 years, the NHI achieved the fastest health population coverage in the world. Current medical expenditure is not high relative to the rest of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The quality of acute care in Korea is one of the best in the world. There is no sign of delayed diagnosis and/or treatment for most diseases. However, the NHI has been under-insured, requiring high-levels of out-of-pocket money from patients and often causing catastrophic medical expenses. Furthermore, the current environmental circumstances of the NHI are threatening its sustainability. Low birth rate decline, as well as slow economic growth, will make sustainment of the current healthcare system difficult in the near future. An aging population will increase the amount of medical expenditure required, especially with the baby-boomer generation of those born between 1955 and 1965. Meanwhile, there is always the problem of unification for the Korean Peninsula, and what role the health insurance system will have to play when it occurs. In the presidential election, health insurance is a main issue; however, there is greater focus on expansion and expenditure than revenue. Many aspects of Korea's NHI system (1977) were modeled after the German (1883) and Japanese (1922) systems. Such systems were created during an era where infections disease control was most urgent and thus, in the current non-communicable disease (NCD) era, must be redesigned. The Korean system, which is already forty years old, must be redesigned completely. Although health insurance benefit expansion is necessary, financial measures, as well as moral hazard control measures, must also be considered. Ultimately, there are three aspects that we must consider when attempting redesign of the system. First, the health security system must be reformed. NHI and Medical Aid must be amalgamated into one system for increased effectiveness and efficiency of the system. Within the single insurer system of the NHI must be an internal market for maximum efficiency. The NHIS must be separated into regions so that regional organizers have greater responsibility over their actions. Although insurance must continue to be imposed nationally, risk-adjustment must be distributed regionally and assessed by different regional systems. Second, as a solution for the decreasing flow of insurance revenue, low premium level must be increased to an appropriate level. Likewise, the national reserve fund (No. 36, National Health Insurance Act) must be enlarged for re-unification preparation. Third, there must be revolutionary reform of benefit package. The current system built a focus on communicable diseases which is inappropriate in this NCD era. Medical benefits must not be one-time events but provide chronic disease management. Chronic care models, accountable care organization, patient-centered medical homes, and other systems that introduce various benefit packages for beneficiaries must be implemented. The reimbursement system of medical costs should be introduced to various systems for different types of care, as is the case with part C (Medicare Advantage Program) of America's Medicare system that substitutes part A and part B. Pay for performance must be expanded so that there is not only improvement in quality of care but also medical costs. Moreover, beneficiaries of the NHI system must be aware of the amount of their expenditure through a deductible payment system so that spending can be profiled and monitored. The Moon Jae-in Government has announced its plans to expand the NHI system; however, it is important that a discussion forum is created so that more accurate analysis of the NHI, its environments, and current status of health care system, can take place for reforming NHI.

Degradation Ability and Population of Resistant Strains of Chlorothalonil in Upland Soil Distributed in Honam Area (호남지역 밭토양에 분포된 Chlorothalonil 내성균(耐性菌)의 밀도(密度)와 분해능(分解能))

  • Lee, Sang-Bok;Choi, Yoon-Hee;Yoo, Chul-Hyun;So, Jae-Don;Rhee, Gyeong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 1996
  • This experiment was conducted to obtain the basis of degradation of remaining agricultural chemicals accumulated in upland soils of Honam district in Korea. The population. relative growth rate(RGR). chlorothalonil(TPN)-degradation ability and bacterialogical characteristics of TPN resistant strains were investigated in TPN levels of 0, 25, 50, 100 and $500{\mu}l/ml$ compared with Mancozeb. A number of TPN-resistant bacteria were differ in the area of examined and were decreased with higher levels of TPN. The resistance of bacteria was stronger in TPN than Mancozeb but the resistance of fungi was vise versa. RGR of bacteria in the culture was the highest at the level of $50{\mu}l/ml$ and the lowest in $500{\mu}l/ml$ of TPN. TPN-degradation ability of bacteda isolated in various TPN levels was varied : only 8 percentage of bacteria showed 75 percentage or more degradation ability. The higher the concentration in TPN resistance, the larger the number of strains carried great ability to decompose pesticide residues. The strains having higher decomposition ability was rod-shapes cells and senstive to heat. Analyses of the indol production, methyl red, and V-P test have given similar results, with negative reaction in all these strain, while the other biochemical characteristics were differ in the strains. Based on these, these strains might be classified into Pseudomonas sp., Corynebacterium sp., Acinetobacter sp. and Moraxcella sp.

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