• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy Simulation

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Projecting Future Change in the Female Labor Force based on Historical Experiences of Other Developed Countries: Implications for the Effects of Changing Population Structure on the Size of the Workforce (선진국의 역사적 사례에 기초한 여성경제활동인구 변화 전망 : 인구구조 변화가 노동인력규모에 미치는 영향에 대한 함의)

  • Lee, Chulhee;Kim, Claire Kyu-yeon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2019
  • This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

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A Visual Preference Study on Namdaemun and its Surroundings Using Visual Simulation Techniques (시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 남대문 및 주변 경관의 시각적 선호도에 관한 연구)

  • 조시현;진양교
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.12-24
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    • 1997
  • One argument of this study is that the policy to handle and landscape of cultural and historical property had to do with people's visual preferences. This study seeks to investigate people's visual preferences toward the landscape of cultural /historical property, specifically dealing with 'Namdaemun', which is the first class cultural property of Korea. People's visual preference was specifically examined into the four specific concepts : 'visual identity','harmony','beauty of the target property', and 'overall beauty'. Two objective variables, such as, 'distance' between the viewer and the cultural property, and 'height' of background buildings were considered possible predictors of the four visual preference variables. Photos of 'Namdaemun' were taken at three different directions and at three different distances. The photographed images of 'Namdaemun' were transferred ito the digitalized graphic images, where the height of background buildings was artificially changed and simulated. The simulated visual images were taken into the slides again. A total of 59 students of the Department of Landscape architecture at Seoul City University were sampled as subjects. A series of 17 slides were shown to the subjects four times. The subjects were asked to check their preference ratings concerning the four concepts on a 7-point Likert scale. The results found in this study were as follows : 1) In the results of ANOVA, it was clear that people visually preferred the view where the height of background buildings were lower than 15 floors to the view of more than 15 floors . 2) From the results of the path analysis, it was found that 'harmony','visual identity' and 'beauty of the target property' were direct predictors of 'the overall beauty'. The 'height ' of background buildings and the viewer's 'distance' were not found to be direct predictors, however, they demonstrated their effects on 'the overall beauty' through the other variable, which were direct predictors of 'the overall beauty'. In sum, the longer the distance and the higher the background buildings, the lower people's preference with the 'overall beauty'. These indirect paths, in turn, also explain why and how the 'height' of background buildings and the viewer's 'distance' negatively influence the 'overall beauty'. An implication from the these results is that when the height of background buildings were not controllable, there would be some other strategies for improving people's visual preference toward the historical /cultural view. To increase 'visual identity' of the cultural property, for example, changing colors of the cultural property or increasing the lighting level, etc., would be one strategy, since the increased 'visual identity' will, in turn, increase 'the overall beauty'.

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Establishment of Bus Priority Signal in Real-Time Traffic Signal Control (실시간신호제어시스템에서의 버스우선신호 알고리즘 정립 (중앙버스 전용차로를 대상으로))

  • Han, Myeong-Ju;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.7 s.93
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2006
  • Recently due to the increase of cars and city life, the traffic congestion has worsened. It Is particularly worse in the center of the metropolis. Within the general public means, the public transport buses have the advantage of being more cheap, accessible and mobile. But as there is no separate lane for buses, the collision of cars and buses are creating damage to public service. In order to solve this situation, the bus priority signal system has been introduced to reduce the bus travel time and improve its services. The purpose of this study is to establish bus priority signal algorithm which builds bus efficiency under the real-time traffic signal control system and to analyze the effect of it. As the green time was calculated against real time (under the real-time traffic signal control system), compared to existing bus priority signal there was a reduction in cross street loss. The modified cycle was used to maintain signal progression. A case study was carried out using VISSIM simulation model. In result of this study, we found that there was a decrease in bus travel time despite some evidence of car delays and compared to existing bus priority signal the delay of dishonor could be reduced dramatically. The analysed result of person delay using MOE, is that there is evidence that when bus priority signal is in effect, the person delay is reduced.

Development of managerial decision-making support technology model for supporting knowledge intensive consulting process (지식집약형 컨설팅프로세스 지원을 위한 경영의사결정지원 기술모델 개발연구)

  • Kim, Yong Jin;Jin, Seung Hye
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2013
  • Recently companies are confronted with a much more sophisticated business environment than before and at the same time have to be able to adapt to rapid changes. Accordingly, the need for selecting among alternatives and managing systematic decision-making has been steadily increasing to respond to a more diverse customer needs and keep up with the fierce competition. In this study, we propose a framework that consist of problem solving procedures and techniques and knowledge structure built on processes to support strategic decision making. and discuss how to utilize simulation tools as the knowledge-based problem solving tools. In addition we discuss how to build and advance the knowledge structure to implement the proposed architecture. Management decision support systems architecture consist of three key factors. The first is Problem Solving Approach which is used as reference. The second is knowledge structure on business processes that includes standard and reference business processes. The third is simulators that are able to generate and analyze alternatives using problem solving techniques and knowledge base. In sum, the proposed framework of decision-making support systems facilitates knowledge-intensive consulting processes to promote the development and application of consulting knowledge and techniques and increase the efficiency of consulting firms and industry.

The Multisector Model of the Korean Economy: Structure and Coefficients (한국경제(韓國經濟)의 다부문모형(多部門模型) : 모형구조(模型構造)와 추정결과(推定結果))

  • Park, Jun-kyung;Kim, Jung-ho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.3-20
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    • 1990
  • The multisector model is designed to analyze and forecast structural change in industrial output, employment, capital and relative price as well as macroeconomic change in aggregate income, interest rate, etc. This model has 25 industrial sectors, containing about 1,300 equations. Therefore, this model is characterized by detailed structural disaggregation at the sectoral level. Individual industries are based on many of the economic relationships in the model. This is what distinguishes a multisector model from a macroeconomic model. Each industry is a behavioral agent in the model for industrial investment, employment, prices, wages, and intermediate demand. The strength of the model lies in the simulating the interactions between different industries. The result of its simulation will be introduced in the next paper. In this paper, we only introduce the structure of the multisector model and the coefficients of the equations. The multisector model is a dynamic model-that is, it solves year by year into the future using its own solutions for earlier years. The development of a dynamic, year-by-year solution allows us to combine the change in structure with a consideration of the dynamic adjustment required. These dynamics have obvious advantages in the use of the multisector model for industrial planning. The multisector model is a medium-term and long-term model. Whereas a short-term model can taken the labor supply and capital stock as given, a long-term model must acknowledge that these are determined endogenously. Changes in the medium-term can be analyzed in the context of long-term structural changes. The structure of this model can be summarized as follow. The difference in domestic and world prices affects industrial structure and the pattern of international trade; domestic output and factor price affect factor demand; factor demand and factor price affect industrial income; industrial income and relative price affect industrial consumption. Technical progress, as measured in terms of total factor productivity and relative price affect input-output coefficients; input-output coefficients and relative price determine the industrial input cost; input cost and import price determine domestic price. The differences in productivity and wage growth among different industries affect the relative price.

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Selection of Light Character for Marking with Lights on Offshore Wind Farms (해양풍력발전단지 표지등광의 등질선정에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Hyoung-Seon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2014
  • Korean government sets up a goal that jumps up to the third ranked powerful nation of offshore wind in the world until 2020 and announced "The plan for 2.5-gigawatt wind farm off the south-west coast by 2019". Such above, according to green energy policy, offshore wind farms(OWF) will be increased continuously. The development of OWF should be taken account of wind volume as well as marine traffic environment. Specially aids to navigation of OWF play a significant role in preventing collision between vessels navigating near waters and structures. For purpose of distinguishing OWF, IALA recommendations define installation of lights on SPS and IPS. However, there is no mention of light character that plays important role in identification of lights as marking offshore wind farm. Also the research on selection of proper light character has been insufficient state. Therefore in this paper, we analyzed internal and external regulations concerned marking with light on SPS and IPS in OWF. And suggested patterns and rhythms of light having not only easily recognized feature but also no confusion with other light of aids to navigation. The proposed light characters were verified by simulation, and the results were analysed that synchronism flickering of "Fl Y(4) 12s(SPS)" and "Fl Y 6s(IPS)" would be useful in combination of both lights.

The Research on the Bridge Design Development for the Improvement of Small City structures - Focusing on Wicheon-stream in Geochang County, Gyeongsangnam-do - (중소도시 구조물 개선을 위한 교량디자인 개발 연구 - 경남거창군 위천천을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, KieSu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2014
  • As a measure to overcome the limit of small city which is weak in spontaneous competitiveness and to improve the quality of environmental, cultural and economic life of dwellers, it analyzed the geographical characteristics of city, movement path, economic status and other simple problems comprehensively and produced the vague problem solutions for dwellers and the practical direction for design using the 3D simulation rendering in order to suggest the result to change the potential for urban policy into substantial alternative. Geochang-gun selected as research area is evaluated for the place with high symbolic value of bridge in terms of environment, and the new design development for this kind of public design can be the good measure to increase the competitiveness of the city. This research is to understand the direction of the bridge recreation project which provides the cultural space connecting with other areas and improves the competitiveness of small city and to suggest the appropriate bridge design in order to provide the reasonable maintenance direction related to the future development of public design and the achievement of the symbolism of the region and to suggest the examples of public design for the urban competitiveness. For this purpose, focusing on Wicheon-stream in Geochang County, Gyeongsangnam-do selected as the research and development area for bridge design, it is to design the concept design bridge newly emphasizing the symbolism of bridge-oriented city for the development of future city.

A Study on Optimal Traffic Detection Systems by Introduction of Section Detection System (구간검지체계 도입을 통한 교통검지체계 설치기준 연구)

  • Kim, Nak-Joo;Lee, Seung-Jun;Oh, Sei-Chang;Son, Young-Tae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2011
  • A traffic detection system can be deemed as a traffic data and information collection system to serve traffic policies, traffic management, and user services. The system plays a crucial role in verifying whether or not the current traffic system has issues or problems by checking out traffic data. In addition, the system does so in finding out a point or a section where an issue or a problem has occurred, if any, and in examining the causes of the issue or problem, the extent of its impact that has occurred and spread, and a method for resolving it. However, the existing point detection system of Korea has too many flaws. In order to fix the flaws, in this paper, the theoretical characteristics of the section detection system were researched in relation to the calculation of travel time. In addition, the travel time of probe cars was obtained by field survey, and it was compared to that of spot and section detection data. Then, simulation was performed to determine the optimal section detection interval. In conclusion, introduction of optimal section detection system was examined in order to achieve the advanced road management including traffic policy, traffic management, and user services.

A Study for Improving Performance of ATM Multicast Switch (ATM 멀티캐스트 스위치의 성능 향상을 위한 연구)

  • 이일영;조양현;오영환
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.12A
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    • pp.1922-1931
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    • 1999
  • A multicast traffic’s feature is the function of providing a point to multipoints cell transmission, which is emerging from the main function of ATM switch. However, when a conventional point-to-point switch executes a multicast function, the excess load is occurred because unicast cell as well as multicast cell passed the copy network. Additionally, due to the excess load, multicast cells collide with other cells in a switch. Thus a deadlock that losses cells raises, extremely diminishes the performance of switch. An input queued switch also has a defect of the HOL (Head of Line) blocking that less lessens the performance of the switch. In the proposed multicast switch, we use shared memory switch to reduce HOL blocking and deadlock. In order to decrease switch’s complexity and cell's processing time, to improve a throughput, we utilize the method that routes a cell on a separated paths by traffic pattern and the scheduling algorithm that processes a maximum 2N cell at once in the control part. Besides, when cells is congested at an output port, a cell loss probability increases. Thus we use the Output Memory (OM) to reduce the cell loss probability. And we make use of the method that stores the assigned memory (UM, MM) with a cell by a traffic pattern and clears the cell of the Output memory after a fixed saving time to improve the memory utilization rate. The performance of the proposed switch is executed and compared with the conventional policy under the burst traffic condition through both the analysis based on Markov chain and simulation.

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A Study on Searching Algorithm for Malfunction Pattern of Protection Devices in Distribution System with PV Systems (태양광전원이 연계된 배전계통 보호협조기기의 부동작패턴 탐색알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Soon-Hwan;Tae, Dong-Hyun;Lee, Hu-Dong;Rho, Dae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.652-661
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the Korean government developed the RE3020 (renewable energy) policy to overcome environmental problems, such as fine dust, climate change, and large-scale PV systems interconnected with a distribution system. When a large-scale PV system is interconnected in the distribution system, however, a malfunction can occur, and the protection devices may not be operated because of the dividing effect depending on the magnitude and direction of fault current as well as connection types and location of the PV system. Therefore, this paper proposes a search algorithm for the malfunction pattern of protection devices based on various scenarios, when large-scale PV systems are operated and interconnected in a distribution system. This paper presents a malfunction mechanism of protection devices according to the installation locations of recloser (R/C). Furthermore, the modeling of a distribution system with large-scale PV systems was performed using Off-DAS S/W, and the malfunction patterns of protection devices were analyzed based on a range of scenarios. From the simulation results with the proposed model and algorithm for searching for protection devices, it was confirmed that they are useful and effective in identifying a malfunction phenomenon depending on the installation location of the R/C and connection type of PV system.