Journal of Labour Economics (노동경제논집)

The Korean Labor Economic Association (한국노동경제학회)
권호 표지

Projecting Future Change in the Female Labor Force based on Historical Experiences of Other Developed Countries: Implications for the Effects of Changing Population Structure on the Size of the Workforce

선진국의 역사적 사례에 기초한 여성경제활동인구 변화 전망 : 인구구조 변화가 노동인력규모에 미치는 영향에 대한 함의

  • Received : 2019.10.09
  • Accepted : 2019.12.09
  • Published : 2019.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

이 연구는 장래의 우리나라 여성(25~54세) 경제활동참가율이 미국이나 일본의 역사적 경험을 따라 변화하는 경우 최근(2018년)의 경제활동참가율이 유지되는 경우에 비해 2065년까지 여성경제활동인구가 어떻게 변화하는지를 추정하였다. 결과에 따르면 미국이나 일본의 역사적 사례에 기초한 시나리오가 실현되는 경우 25~54세 여성 경제활동인구가 2042년까지 각각 약 14%(약 797,000명) 및 15%(약 831,000명) 더 늘어날 것으로 예상된다. 특히 현재 경력단절현상이 심한 30대와 40대 초반 여성경제활동인구가 큰 폭으로 증가할 것으로 전망된다. 이 연구의 결과는 비교적 가까운 장래에 인구변화로 인한 전체경제활동인구 감소효과가 크지 않을 것임을 시사한다. 일본의 사례를 적용한 시뮬레이션 결과는 여성 경제활동을 증가시키기 위한 정책적인 노력이 인구구조변화가 노동시장에 미칠 것으로 우려되는 잠재적인 영향에 대응하는데 있어서 적어도 가까운 장래에 있어서는 장년고용을 증가시키기 위한 노력에 비해 효과적이라는 것을 보여준다.

Keywords

References

  1. 이철희. 2000년-2014년 출산율 변화요인 분해: 출산장려정책 평가에 대한 함의.
  2. 이상협.이철희.홍석철. 저출산 대책의 효과성 평가. 한국보건사회연구원, 2016.
  3. 이철희.이지은. "인구고령화가 노동수급에 미치는 영향". 경제분석 23권 4호 (2017. 12): 34-77.
  4. 이철희. 인구변화가 노동시장에 미치는 영향. 조세재정연구원 보고서, 2018.
  5. 이철희. 출생아 수 변화 분석과 장래전망. 한국경제의 분석패널 25권 1호 (2019. 04): 37-91. (a)
  6. 이철희. 출생아 수 감소에 대응한 노동정책. 보건사회연구원 보고서, 2019(발간예정). (b)
  7. 이철희.권정현.김태훈. 인구변화가 노동시장, 교육, 의료에 미치는 영향: 전망과 대응방안. 저출산고령사회위원회 연구보고서, 2019.
  8. Abe, Yukiko. "The Equal Employment Opportunity Law and labor force behavior of women in Japan." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 25 (2011): 39-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.003
  9. Bae, Hae Sun. "Determinants of the Labor Force Participation of Married Female Employees in Japan." Journal of Japanese Language and Literature 61 (February 2014): 513-528.
  10. Bailey, Martha J. "More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women's Life Cycle Labor Supply." The Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (1) (February 2006): 289-320. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355306776083491
  11. Blau, Francine D., and Kahn, Lawrence M. "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000." Journal of Labor Economics 25 (3) (July 2007): 393-438. https://doi.org/10.1086/513416
  12. Blau, Francine D., and Kahn, Lawrence M.. "Female Labor Supply: Why Is the United States Falling Behind?" The American Economic Review 103 (3) (May 2013): 251-56. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.251
  13. Cannings, Kathleen, and Lazonick, William. "Equal Employment Opportunity and the "Managerial Woman" in Japan." Industrial Relations 33 (1) (January 1994): 44-69.
  14. Edwards, Linda N. "The Status of Women in Japan: Has the Equal Employment Opportunity Law Made a Difference?" Journal of Asian Economics 5 (2) (1994): 217-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/1049-0078(94)90025-6
  15. Goldin, Claudia. Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women. Oxford University Press, 1990.
  16. Goldin, Claudia. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Fertility." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 96 (2) (May 2006): 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806777212350
  17. Kang, Jean S. "Evaluating Labor Force Participation of Women in Japan and Korea: Developments and Future Prospects." Asian Journal of Women's Studies 23 (3) (August 2017): 294-320. https://doi.org/10.1080/12259276.2017.1351589
  18. Krueger, Alan B. "Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference Drafts (2) (2017): 1-87.
  19. Lee, Chulhee, Kim, Hyewon, and Oh, Seojung. "Parental Gender Norms and College Major Choice." Paper presented at the 2019 AASLE.
  20. Nakamura, Jiro, and Ueda, Atsuko. "On the Determinants of Career Interruption by Childbirth among Married Women in Japan." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 13 (1999): 73-89. https://doi.org/10.1006/jjie.1998.0408
  21. Nakata, Yoshi-fumi, and Takehiro, Ryoji. "Employment and Wages of Female Japanese Workers: Past, Present, and Future." Industrial Relations 41 (4) (October 2002): 521-547. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-232x.00263
  22. Nishitateno, Shuhei, and Shikata, Masato. "Has improved daycare accessibility increased Japan's maternal employment rate? Municipal evidence from 2000-2010." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 44 (2017): 67-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2017.04.002
  23. Nobutane, Hanayama, and Hwang, Myung Jin. "A Comparative Study on Female Labor Participation in South Korea and Japan." Korea Journal of Population Studies 37 (2) (June 2014): 91-112.
  24. Okamura, Kazuaki, and Islam, Nizamul. "Inter-temporal Labour Force Participation among Married Women in Japan." The Japanese Economic Review 62 (4) (December 2011): 562-580. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5876.2011.00536.x
  25. Oshio, Takashi, Usui, Emiko, and Shimizutani, Satoshi. "Labor Force Participation of the Elderly in Japan." Working Paper, 2018.
  26. Raymo, James M., and Lim, So-jung. "A new look at married women's labor force transitions in Japan." Social Science Research 40 (2011): 460-472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2010.10.005
  27. Stevenson, Betsey. "Divorce Law and Women's Labor Supply." Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 5 (4) (December 2008): 853-873. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-1461.2008.00143.x
  28. The US Council of Economic Advisers. "The US Council of Economic Advisers on Women's Labor Force Participation and the Work-Family Conflict." Population and Development Review 41 (1) (March 2015): 169-177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00040.x
  29. Unayama, Takashi. "Consumption Responses to the Child Allowance." RIETI Discussion Papers Series, 2011.
  30. Yamaguchi, Shintaro, Asai, Yukiko, and Kambayashi, Ryo. "Effects of subsidized childcare on mothers' labor supply under a rationing mechanism." Labour Economics 55 (2018): 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2018.09.002