• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson Distribution

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The Comparative Study of NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Exponential and Inverse Exponential Distribution (지수 및 역지수 분포를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 무한고장 신뢰도 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, we were proposed the reliability model with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, were employed. Analysis of failure, using real data set for the sake of proposing the exponential and inverse exponential distribution, was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponential and inverse exponential distribution property. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the inverse exponential distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

A Simulation Model for the Intermittent Hydrologic Process(I) - Alternate Renewal Process (ARP) and Continuous Probability Distribution - (간헐(間歇) 수문과정(水文過程)의 모의발생(模擬發生) 모형(模型)(I) - 교대재생과정(交代再生過程)(ARP)과 연속확률분포(連續確率分布) -)

  • Lee, Jae Joon;Lee, Jung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.509-521
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    • 1994
  • This study is an effort to develop computer simulation model that produce precipitation patterns from stochastic model. A stochastic model is formulated for the process of daily precipitation with considering the sequences of wet and dry days and the precipitation amounts on wet days. This study consists of 2 papers and the process of precipitation occurrence is modelled by an alternate renewal process (ARP) in paper (I). In the ARP model for the precipitation occurrence, four discrete distributions, used to fit the wet and dry spells, were as follows; truncated binomial distribution (TBD), truncated Poisson distribution (TPD), truncated negative binomial distribution (TNBD), logarithmic series distribution (LSD). In companion paper (II) the process of occurrence is developed by Markov chain. The amounts of precipitation, given that precipitation has occurred, are described by a Gamma. Pearson Type-III, Extremal Type-III, and 3 parameter Weibull distribution. Daily precipitation series model consists of two models, A-Wand A-G model, by combining the process of precipitation occurrence and a continuous probability distribution on the precipitation of wet days. To evaluate the performance of the simulation model, output from the model was compared with historical data of 7 stations in the Nakdong and Seomjin river basin. The results of paper (1) show that it is possible to design a model for the synthetic generation of IX)int precipitation patterns.

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Heat-Wave Data Analysis based on the Zero-Inflated Regression Models (영-과잉 회귀모형을 활용한 폭염자료분석)

  • Kim, Seong Tae;Park, Man Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2829-2840
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    • 2018
  • The random variable with an arbitrary value or more is called semi-continuous variable or zero-inflated one in case that its boundary value is more frequently observed than expected. This means the boundary value is likely to be practically observed more than it should be theoretically under certain probability distribution. When the distribution considered is continuous, the variable is defined as semi-continuous and when one of discrete distribution is assumed for the variable, we regard it as zero-inflated. In this study, we introduce the two-part model, which consists of one part for modelling the binary response and the other part for modelling the variable greater than the boundary value. Especially, the zero-inflated regression models are explained by using Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. In real data analysis, we employ the zero-inflated regression models to estimate the number of days under extreme heat-wave circumstances during the last 10 years in South Korea. Based on the estimation results, we create prediction maps for the estimated number of days under heat-wave advisory and heat-wave warning by using the universal kriging, which is one of the spatial prediction methods.

A Study on the Analysis of Container Physical Distribution System -Pusan Port Oriented- (물류시스템 분석에 관한 연구 - 부산항을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, C.H.;Lee, C.Y.
    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 1991
  • This work aims to : establish a model of the container physical distribution system of Pusan port comprising 4 sub-systems of a navigational system, on-dock cargo handling/transfer/storage system, off-dock CY system and an in-land transport system : examine the system regarding the cargo handling capability of the port and analyse the cost of the physical distribution system. The overall findings are as follows : Firstly in the navigational system, average tonnage of the ships visiting the Busan container terminal was 33,055 GRT in 1990. The distribution of the arrival intervals of the ships' arriving at BCTOC was exponential distribution of $Y=e^{-x/5.52}$ with 95% confidence, whereas that of the ships service time was Erlangian distribution(K=4) with 95% confidence, Ships' arrival and service pattern at the terminal, therefore, was Poisson Input Erlangian Service, and ships' average waiting times was 28.55 hours In this case 8berths were required for the arriving ships to wait less than one hour. Secondly an annual container through put that can be handled by the 9cranes at the terminal was found to be 683,000 TEU in case ships waiting time is one hour and 806,000 TEU in case ships waiting is 2 hours in-port transfer capability was 913,000 TEU when berth occupancy rate(9) was 0.5. This means that there was heavy congestion in the port when considering the fact that a total amount of 1,300,000 TEU was handled in the terminal in 1990. Thirdly when the cost of port congestion was not considered optimum cargo volume to be handled by a ship at a time was 235.7 VAN. When the ships' waiting time was set at 1 hour, optimum annual cargo handling capacity at the terminal was calculated to be 386,070 VAN(609,990 TEU), whereas when the ships' waiting time was set at 2 hours, it was calculated to be 467,738 VAN(739,027 TEU). Fourthly, when the cost of port congestion was considered optimum cargo volume to be handled by a ship at a time was 314.5 VAN. When the ships' waiting time was set at I hour optimum annual cargo handling capacity at the terminal was calculated to be 388.416(613.697 TEU), whereas when the ships' waiting time was set 2 hours, it was calculated to be 462,381 VAN(730,562 TEU).

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The Effects of Sentiment and Readability on Useful Votes for Customer Reviews with Count Type Review Usefulness Index (온라인 리뷰의 감성과 독해 용이성이 리뷰 유용성에 미치는 영향: 가산형 리뷰 유용성 정보 활용)

  • Cruz, Ruth Angelie;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.43-61
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    • 2016
  • Customer reviews help potential customers make purchasing decisions. However, the prevalence of reviews on websites push the customer to sift through them and change the focus from a mere search to identifying which of the available reviews are valuable and useful for the purchasing decision at hand. To identify useful reviews, websites have developed different mechanisms to give customers options when evaluating existing reviews. Websites allow users to rate the usefulness of a customer review as helpful or not. Amazon.com uses a ratio-type helpfulness, while Yelp.com uses a count-type usefulness index. This usefulness index provides helpful reviews to future potential purchasers. This study investigated the effects of sentiment and readability on useful votes for customer reviews. Similar studies on the relationship between sentiment and readability have focused on the ratio-type usefulness index utilized by websites such as Amazon.com. In this study, Yelp.com's count-type usefulness index for restaurant reviews was used to investigate the relationship between sentiment/readability and usefulness votes. Yelp.com's online customer reviews for stores in the beverage and food categories were used for the analysis. In total, 170,294 reviews containing information on a store's reputation and popularity were used. The control variables were the review length, store reputation, and popularity; the independent variables were the sentiment and readability, while the dependent variable was the number of helpful votes. The review rating is the moderating variable for the review sentiment and readability. The length is the number of characters in a review. The popularity is the number of reviews for a store, and the reputation is the general average rating of all reviews for a store. The readability of a review was calculated with the Coleman-Liau index. The sentiment is a positivity score for the review as calculated by SentiWordNet. The review rating is a preference score selected from 1 to 5 (stars) by the review author. The dependent variable (i.e., usefulness votes) used in this study is a count variable. Therefore, the Poisson regression model, which is commonly used to account for the discrete and nonnegative nature of count data, was applied in the analyses. The increase in helpful votes was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Because the Poisson model assumes an equal mean and variance and the data were over-dispersed, a negative binomial distribution model that allows for over-dispersion of the count variable was used for the estimation. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to model count variables with excessive zeros and over-dispersed count outcome variables. With this model, the excess zeros were assumed to be generated through a separate process from the count values and therefore should be modeled as independently as possible. The results showed that positive sentiment had a negative effect on gaining useful votes for positive reviews but no significant effect on negative reviews. Poor readability had a negative effect on gaining useful votes and was not moderated by the review star ratings. These findings yield considerable managerial implications. The results are helpful for online websites when analyzing their review guidelines and identifying useful reviews for their business. Based on this study, positive reviews are not necessarily helpful; therefore, restaurants should consider which type of positive review is helpful for their business. Second, this study is beneficial for businesses and website designers in creating review mechanisms to know which type of reviews to highlight on their websites and which type of reviews can be beneficial to the business. Moreover, this study highlights the review systems employed by websites to allow their customers to post rating reviews.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pathogenic Vibrio through Sea Squirt Consumption in Korea (우렁쉥이에 대한 병원성 비브리오균 정량적 미생물 위해평가)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Kim, Young-Mog;Park, Kwon-Sam;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2020
  • This study evalutated the risk of foodborne illness from Vibrio spp. (Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae) through sea squirt consumption. The prevalence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in sea squirt was evaluated, and the predictive models to describe the kinetic behavior of the Vibrio in sea squirt were developed. Distribution temperatures and times were collected, and they were fitted to probabilistic distributions to determine the appropriate distributions. The raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2016 were used to estimate the consumption rates and amount of sea squirt. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for V. vulnificus and V. cholerae infection was used. With the collected data, a simulation model was prepared and it was run with @RISK to estimate probabilities of foodborne illness by pathogenic Vibrio spp. through sea squirt consumption. Among 101 sea squirt samples, there were no V. vulnificus positive samples, but V. cholerae was detected in one sample. The developed predictive models described the fates of Vibrio spp. in sea squirt during distribution and storage, appropriately shown as 0.815-0.907 of R2 and 0.28 of RMSE. The consumption rate of sea squirt was 0.26%, and the daily consumption amount was 68.84 g per person. The Beta-Poisson model [P=1-(1+Dose/β)] was selected as a dose-response model. With these data, a simulation model was developed, and the risks of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae foodborne illness from sea squirt consumption were 2.66×10-15, and 1.02×10-12, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in sea squirt could be considered low in Korea.

A Study on the Performance Analysis of Broadband ISDN Traffic (광대역 ISDN의 트래픽 성능분석에 관한 연구)

  • 구창회;박광채;이재호
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.980-988
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, performance of 8-ISDN traffic for the buffer size which is requested of important parameters in switch/multiplexer of B-ISDN with multimedia traffic is analyzed. Multimedia traffic is modeled as a traffic, which is composed of poisson distribution traffic and burst traffic with exponential/geometric ON time duration(Burst duration) Performance of traffic which is modeled as a multimedia traffic is analysed and buffer size, can provide the high quality service, is presented for the cell loss probability. It is simulated using event scheduling approach method which is provided by simulation package, PC SIMSCRIPT II.5. Simulation program is composed of PREAMBLE, MAIN, INITIAL, ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE and STOP·SIM modules. Specially, in case of mixed traffic simulation, ARRIVAL module is composed of ARRIVAL I and ARRIVAL II, and cells are generated independently by each module.

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A Study of the Threshold Voltage of a Symmetric Double Gate Type MOSFET (대칭형 이중 게이트 MOSFET에 대한 문턱전압 연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ihll;Shin, Jin-Seob
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.243-249
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    • 2010
  • In this thesis, in order to a equivalent circuit-analytical study for a symmetric double gate type MOSFET, we slove analytically the 2D Poisson's equation in a a silicon body. To solve the threshold voltage in a symmetric double gate type MOSFET from the derived expression for the surface potential which the two-dimensional potential distribution of a symmetric double gate type MOSFET is assumed approximately. This thesis can use short and long channel in a silicon body we introduce a new the threshold voltage model in a symmetric double gate type MOSFET and measure it the distance about the range of channel length up to 0.1 [${\mu}m$].

SPICE Model of Drain Induced Barrier Lowering in Junctionless Cylindrical Surrounding Gate (JLCSG) MOSFET (무접합 원통형 MOSFET에 대한 드레인 유도 장벽 감소의 SPICE 모델)

  • Jung, Hak Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.278-282
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    • 2018
  • We propose a SPICE model of drain-induced barrier lowering (DIBL) for a junctionless cylindrical surrounding gate (JLCSG) MOSFETs. To this end, the potential distribution in the channel is obtained via the Poisson equation, and the threshold voltage model is presented for the JLCSG MOSFET. In a JLCSG nano-structured MOSFET, a channel radius affects the carrier transfer as well as the channel length and oxide thickness; therefore, DIBL should be expressed as a function of channel length, channel radius, and oxide thickness. Consequently, it can be seen that DIBLs are proportional to the power of -3 for the channel length, 2 for the channel radius, 1 for the thickness of the oxide film, and the constant of proportionality is 18.5 when the SPICE parameter, the static feedback coefficient ${\eta}$, is between 0.2 and 1.0. In particular, as the channel radius and the oxide film thickness increase, the value of ${\eta}$ remains nearly constant.

Lagrangian Simulation Model of Heavy Particle Motion in a Turbulent Flow (라그랑지 관점에 입각한 난류유동장 내의 관성입자운동 모사 모델)

  • Moon, Sun;Maeng, Joo-Sung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.241-251
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    • 1991
  • The present simulation model relies on a new approach of the heavy particle motion in a turbulent flow considering the time and space correlation to the Lagrangian point of view. The turbulent field is, here, assumed that its characteristic scales are random and follow a Poisson's distribution. Using this model, we have computed the trajectory of each particle, that is, its velocity and position at each time in order to study the dispersion of particles in a grid turbulent flow. The computed results have been compared to the corresponding experimental data. Due to the complex mechanism of turbulence and the theoretically and experimentally lacking information, we had to make some assumptions for simplifying the situation, but we have found the good agreement between simulated and measured results. In particular, the application of the present method on the Lagrangian correlation of particle provides an interesting alternative to the usual computational methods.