• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2018

Since South Korea has an economic structure that has a characteristic which market-dependent on overseas, the tourism industry is considered as a very important industry for the national economy, such as improving the country's balance of payments or providing income and employment increases. Accordingly, the necessity of more accurate forecasting on the demand in the tourism industry has been raised to promote its industry. In the related research, economic variables such as exchange rate and income have been used as variables influencing tourism demand. As information technology has been widely used, some researchers have also analyzed the effect of media on tourism demand. It has shown that the media has a considerable influence on traveler's decision making, such as choosing an outbound destination. Furthermore, with the recent availability of online information searches to obtain the latest information and two-way communication in social media, it is possible to obtain up-to-date information on travel more quickly than before. The information in online media such as blogs can naturally create the Word-of-Mouth effect by sharing useful information, which is called eWOM. Like all other service industries, the tourism industry is characterized by difficulty in evaluating its values before it is experienced directly. And furthermore, most of the travelers tend to search for more information in advance from various sources to reduce the perceived risk to the destination, so they can also be influenced by online media such as online news. In this study, we suggested that the number of online media posting, which causes the effects of Word-of-Mouth, may have an effect on the number of outbound travelers. We divided online media into public media and private media according to their characteristics and selected online news as public media and blog as private media, one of the most popular social media in tourist information. Based on the previous studies about the eWOM effects on online news and blog, we analyzed a relationship between the volume of eWOM and the outbound tourism demand through the panel model. To this end, we collected data on the number of national outbound travelers from 2007 to 2015 provided by the Korea Tourism Organization. According to statistics, the highest number of outbound tourism demand in Korea are China, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines, which are selected as a dependent variable in this study. In order to measure the volume of eWOM, we collected online news and blog postings for the same period as the number of outbound travelers in Naver, which is the largest portal site in South Korea. In this study, a panel model was established to analyze the effect of online media on the demand of Korean outbound travelers and to identify that there was a significant difference in the influence of online media by each time and countries. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the impact of the online news and blog eWOM on the number of outbound travelers was significant. We found that the number of online news and blog posting have an influence on the number of outbound travelers, especially the experimental result suggests that both the month that includes the departure date and the three months before the departure were found to have an effect. It is shown that online news and blog are online media that have a significant influence on outbound tourism demand. Next, we found that the increased volume of eWOM in online news has a negative effect on departure, while the increase in a blog has a positive effect. The result with the country-specific models would be the same. This paper shows that online media can be used as a new variable in tourism demand by examining the influence of the eWOM effect of the online media. Also, we found that both social media and news media have an important role in predicting and managing the Korean tourism demand and that the influence of those two media appears different depending on the country.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.177-184
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• 2014

This research analyzes the effects of factors on the demands for outbound to the countries such as Japan, China, the United States of America, Thailand, Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia, the countries preferred by many Koreans. The factors for this research are (1) economic variables such as Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), which could have influences on outbound tourism and exchange rate and (2) unpredictable events such as diseases, financial crisis and terrors. Regression analysis was used to identify relationship based on the monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010. The results of the analysis show that both exchange rate and KOSPI have impacts on the demands for outbound travel. In the case of travels to the United States of America and Philippines, Korean tourists usually have particular purposes such as studying, visiting relatives, playing golf or honeymoon, thus they are less influenced by the exchange rate. Moreover, Korean tourists tend not to visit particular locations for some time when shock reaction happens. As the demands for outbound travels are different from country to country accompanied by economic variables and shock variables, differentiated measure to should be considered to come close to the target numbers of tourists by switching as well as creating the demands. For further study we plan to build outbound tourism forecasting models using Artificial Neural Networks.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.435-441
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• 2014

This paper considers a single-product problem for inbound lot-sizing and outbound dispatching at a third-party warehouse, where the demand is dynamic over the discrete time horizon. Each demand must be delivered into the corresponding delivery time window which is the time interval characterized by the earliest and latest delivery dates of the demand. Ordered products are shipped by heterogeneous container types. Each container type has type-dependent carrying capacity and the unit freight cost depends on each container type. Total freight cost is proportional to the number of each container type used. Also it is assumed that related cost functions are concave and backlogging is not allowed. The objective of the paper is to simultaneously determine the optimal inbound lot-sizing and outbound dispatching plans that minimize total costs which include ordering, shipping, and inventory holding costs. The optimal solution properties are characterized for the problem and then a dynamic programming algorithm is presented to find the optimal solution.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.33-46
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• 2017

Service part has the attribute causing a difficulty of the systematic management like a kind of diversity, uncertainty of demand, high request for quick response against general complete product. Especially, order picking is recognized as the most important work in the warehouse of the parts since inbound cycle of the service part long but outbound cycle is relatively short. But, increasing work efficiency in the warehouse has a limitation that cycle, frequency and quantity for the outbound request depend on the inherent features of the part. Through this research, not only are the types of the parts classified with the various and specified data but also the method is presented that it minimizes (that) the whole distances of the order picking and store location about both inbound and outbound by developing the model of the demand prediction. Based on this study, I expect that all of the work efficiency and the space utilization will be improved without a change of the inbound and outbound quantity in the warehouse.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.27-36
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• 2002

VoiceXML is a standard dialog mark-up language for the neat generation voice applications. The current VoiceXML 1.0 specification is silent on who place outbound calls for push-based voice applications. The push-barred voice applications become very important in modern information systems such as CRM. In this paper, we design and implement an extended VoiceXML platform that supports both inbound and outbound voice information services. We also extend the VoiceXML DTD so as to be able to inbound/outbound fax based on Call Control Requirements of W3C.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.32-41
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• 2012

Studies have shown that the future of the wine market rests on the effective and efficient changes in technology to the supply chain used by most of the major global players. In today's wine industry, companies are faced with the ever-shifting demand for their products, strict regulation and increasing price competition. Even at that, mature companies in the wine industry are succeeding by scaling up production, streamlining their supply chains, expanding into new geographic areas, implementing more efficient processes, cleverly marketing products, and focusing on ever closer relationships with suppliers, partners and customers. However, this paper looks at supply chain challenges in the wine industry from a global perspective presented in the inbound, manufacturing and outbound processes as well as offer effective solutions in order for companies to gain a competitive advantage and succeed on a global level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).