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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2018.36.2.141

Outbound Air Travel Demand Forecasting Model with Unobserved Regional Characteristics  

YU, Jeong Whon (Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University)
CHOI, Jung Yoon (TOD-based Sustainable City Transportation Research Center, Ajou University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.36, no.2, 2018 , pp. 141-154 More about this Journal
Abstract
In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.
Keywords
fixed-effects model; panel data; outbound air travel demand; southeastern region; unobserved heterogeneity;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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