• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제19권37호
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• pp.31-40
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• 1996

The amount of safety stock is decided from various information such as the forecasted demand, the lead time, the size of the order quantity and the desired service level. There are two cases to consider the problem of setting safety stock when both the demand in a period and the lead time are characterized as random variables: the first case is the parameters of the demand and lead time distributions are known, the second case is they are unknown and must be estimated. The objective of this study is to present the procedure for setting safety stocks in the case the parameters of the demand and lead time distributions are unknown and must be estimated. In this study, a simple exponential smoothing model is used. to generate the estimates of demand in each period and a discrete distribution of the lead time is developed from historical data, and the optimal service level is used which determined to consider both of a backorder and lost sale.

• 대기
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.497-506
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• 2011

Korean mid- and upper-level aviation turbulence guidance (KTG) system is developed using the unified model (UM)-based regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The KTG system includes three steps. First, the KTG system calculates a suite of diagnostics in the UM-RDAPS domain. Second, component diagnostics that have different units and numerical magnitudes are normalized into the values between 0 and 1, according to their own thresholds in the KTG system. Finally, normalized diagnostics are combined into one KTG predictor by measuring the weighting scores based on the probability of detection, which is calculated using the observed pilot reports (PIREPs) exclusively of moderate-or-greater (MOG) and null (NIL) intensities. To investigate the optimal performance of the KTG system, two types (RD-KTG and UM-KTG) of the KTG systems are developed and evaluated using the PIREPs over Korea and East Asia. Component diagnostics and their thresholds in the RD-KTG are founded on the 8-yrs (2002.12-2010.11) MM5-based RDAPS (previous version of the RDAPS; ${\Delta}x$ = 30 km) and PIREPs data, while those in the UM-KTG are based on the 6 months (2010.12-2011.5) UM-based RDAPS (${\Delta}x$ = 12 km) and PIREPs data. In comparison between the RD-KTG and UM-KTG, overall performance of the UM-KTG (0.815) is better than that of the RD-KTG (0.79) during the recent 6 months, because forecasting skill for the upper-level wind is higher in the UM-RDAPS than in the MM5-RDAPS. It is also found that the UM-KTG is more efficient than the RD-KTG according to the statistical evaluations and sensitivity tests to the number of component diagnostics.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.51-63
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• 2008

Effective energy consumption now becomes one of the area of knowledge management which potentially gives global impact. It is considerable for the energy management to optimize the usage of energy, rather than decreasing energy consumption at any cases. To resolve these challenges, an intelligent and personalized system which helps the individuals control their own behaviors in an optimal and timely manner is needed. So far, however, since the legacy energy management systems are nation-wide or organizational, individual-level energy management is nearly impossible. Moreover, most estimating methods of energy consumption are based on forecasting techniques which tend to risky or analysis models which may not be provided in a timely manner. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel individual-level energy management system which aims to realize timely and personalized energy management based on context-aware computing approach. To do so, an index model for energy consumption is proposed with a corresponding service framework.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.330-337
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• 2000

본 논문은 10개 교차로를 연동제어를 할 수 있는 새로운 교통체제 개념을 제안한다. 예를 들어서 오늘 야구경기가 8시경에 열린다고 하면 야구경기가 시작하기 전 1 시간 혹은 1시간 혹은 1시간 30분전에 교통량이 증가할 것이다. 이럴 때에는 아무리 우수한 전자 신호등 시스템도 최적녹색시간을 예측할 수 없다. 그러므로, 본 논문에서는 평균 승용차 대기시간을 최소화하고 평균 주행속도를 향상하기 위해서 퍼지규칙 및 신경망을 이용한다. 모의실험결과 제안된 연동 녹색시간이 연동 녹색 시간을 고려하지 않은 전자신호등보다 평균 승용차 대기시간을 줄일 수 있음을 입증했다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권3호
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• pp.404-410
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• 2016

This paper proposed a program of an energy storage system(ESS) for peak shaving of high-speed railway substations The peak shaving saves cost of equipment and demand cost of the substation. To reduce the peak load, it is very important to know when the peak load appears. The past data based load profile forecasting method is easy and applicable to customers which have relatively fixed load profiles. And an optimal scheduling method of the ESS is helpful in reducing the electricity tariff and shaving the peak load efficiently. Based on these techniques, MS. NET based peak shaving program is developed. In case study, a specific daily load profile of the local substation was applied and simulated to verify performance of the proposed program.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.479-491
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 공급자와 소비자, 열 저장시설과 연계네트워크로 구성된 통합 지역난방시스템의 경제성을 평가하고 최적 운전조건을 규명하였다. 최적화에 있어서는 혼합 정수선형 계획법이 이용되었으며 1주일 동안의 열 요구량을 만족함과 동시에 통합 지역난방 시스템의 운전제한 조건에 따른 전체 운영비용을 목적함수로 하였다. 지역난방 네트워크 연결망을 열 병합 발전이 포함되지 않은 구역과 이를 포함하는 구역으로 나누어 최적화를 진행함으로써 열 병합 발전에 의한 비용절감 효과를 확인할 수 있었다. 아울러 계통한계가격 예측모델에 의해 예측된 계통한계가격과 실제 계통한계가격을 각각 적용하여 최적화를 진행하고 그 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 수치모사 결과 개발된 최적화 운영시스템의 도입에 의해 통합 지역난방시스템의 에너지 효율성이 증가함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.300-309
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• 2003

차량항법장치는 1981년 일본 혼다자동차 관성항법장치에서 개발되었다. 요즈음에는 GPS 및 GIS를 기반으로 운전자에게 최단 경로탐색 및 예상도착시간을 인터넷 및 휴대폰으로 검색할 수 있다. 그러나 아무리 좋은 자동항법장치도 평균 차량 속도가 5~15km일 때에는 최단경로를 상실한다. 그러므로, 승용차 대기시간과 평균 차량 속도를 개선하기 위해서 다른 교차로 길이 및 교차로 차선수일 때에도 퍼지 적응규칙을 이용해서 평균주행속도를 향상한 알고리즘을 제안한다. 뿐만 아니라, 본 논문에서는 인터넷을 이용해서 위험한 도로 및 공사중인 도로에서도 안전도를 고려한 최적경로 및 현재의 교통상황을 예보하는 기능을 제공할 수 있도록 하였다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 1979

This paper discusses an application of discrete variable Servo Theory to the analysis of the effectiveness of production-inventory control system which uses exponential smoothing as a specific forecasting technique by establishing a new model which consists of such three departments as production planning, production, and inventory. The objective of the new production-inventory model is to keep the production to the optimal level of minimum production cost in production planning problem for obtaining, the stability of inventory subject to demand variation. On this basis, the dynamic characteristic of the system with the change of the parameters is clarified by the numerical analysis. The results of the numerical analysis show the effect that is obtained by the simultaneous stability of production and inventory as soon as possible.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2004

사고 위험성을 고려한 예측 및 의사결정 모형을 구축한다. 시스템을 즉시 운행중지 할 것인지 혹은 계획된 일정기간을 더 운행 한 후 다시 의사결정을 내릴 것인지를 판단하는 방법론에 대해 연구한다. 의사결정을 내리는데 있어서 비용 및 위험에 대한 새로운 정보가 입수되는 대로 이를 반영한다. 예측 모형을 통해 분석된 결과들을 활용해 보다 나은 의사결정을 내리는 방법에 대해 연구한다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권12호
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• pp.597-602
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• 2002

The restructuring of power industry is still going on all over the world for last several decades. Many kinds of restructuring model have been studied, proposed, and applied. Among those models, power pool is more popular than other. This paper assumes the power pool market structure having competitive generation sector, and a new method is presented to build a bidding strategy in that market. The utilities participating in the market have the perfect information of their cost and price functions, but they don't know which strategy to be chosen by others. To define one's strategy as a vector, we make utility's cost/price functions into discrete step functions. An utility knows only his own strategy, so he estimates the other's cost/price functions into discrete step functions. An utility knows only his own strategy, so he estimates the other's strategy using Nash equilibrium or stochastic methods. And he also has to forecast the system demand. According to this forecasting result, his payoffs can be changed. Considering these all conditions, we formulate a bidding game problem and apply noncooperative game theory to that problem for the optimal strategy or solution. Some restrictive assumption are added for simplification of solving process. A numerical example is given in Case Study to show essential features and concrete results of this approach.