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The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

Geological Structures of the Limesilicates in the Songgang-ri, Cheongsong-gun, Korea (청송군 송강리 석회규산염암류의 지질구조)

  • Kang, Ji-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.139-151
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    • 2018
  • The Songgang-ri area, Cheongsong-gun, which is located in the Sobaeksan province of Yeongnam Massif near the southwestern boundary of Yeongyang subbasin of Gyeongsang Basin, consists of age unknown metamorphic rocks (banded gneiss, granitic gneiss, limesilicates) and age unknown igneous rock (granite gneiss) which intrudes them. This paper researched the geological structures of the Songgang-ri area from the geometric and kinematic features and the developing sequence of multi-deformed rock structures in the geological outcrops exposed about 170 m along the riverside of Yongjeoncheon in the eastern part of Songgang village, Songgang-ri. In the Songgang-ri geological outcrops are recognized three times (Fn, Fn+1, Fn+2) of folding, three times (Dk-I, Dk-II, Dk-III) intrusion of acidic dykes, one time of faulting, which are different in deformation and intrusion timing each other. These geological structures are at least formed by five times (Dn, Dn+1, Dn+2, Dn+3, Dn+4) of deformation. The Dn deformation is recognized by Fn fold which axial surface is parallel to the regional foliation. The Dn+1 intruded the (E)NE trending Dk-I dyke in the earlier phase and formed the NW trending Fn+1 fold in the later phase under compression of (E)NE-(W)SW direction. There are tight, isoclinal, intrafolial folds, boudinage, ${\sigma}$- or ${\delta}$-type boudins, asymmetric fold, C' shear band as the major deformed rock structures. The Dn+2 intruded the (N)NW trending Dk-II dyke in the earlier phase and formed NE trending Fn+2 fold in the later phase under compression of (N)NW-(S)SE direction. There are open fold and folded boudinage as those. The Dn+2 intruded the Dk-III dyke which cuts the Dk-I and Dk-II dykes and the axial surface of Fn+2 fold. The Dn+3 formed the left-handed reverse oblique-slip fault of NNE trend in which hanging wall moves into the SSE direction. Considering in that such five times of deformation recognized in the Songgang-ri geological outcrops are closely connected to the distribution and geological structure of the constituents in the more regional area as well as Songgang-ri area, the research result is expected to play a great data in clarifying and understanding the geological structure and its development process of the surrounding and boundary constituents of the Yeongnam Massif and Gyeongsang Basin.

Gene Expression Analysis of Inducible cAMP Early Repressor (ICER) Gene in Longissimus dorsi of High- and Low Marbled Hanwoo Steers (한우 등심부위 근육 내 조지방함량에 따른 inducible cAMP early repressor (ICER) 유전자발현 분석)

  • Lee, Seung-Hwan;Kim, Nam-Kuk;Kim, Sung-Kon;Cho, Yong-Min;Yoon, Du-hak;Oh, Sung-Jong;Im, Seok-Ki;Park, Eung-Woo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1090-1095
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    • 2008
  • Marbling (intramuscular fat) is an important factor in determining meat quality in Korean beef market. A grain based finishing system for improving marbling leads to inefficient meat production due to an excessive fat production. Identification of intramuscular fat-specific gene might be achieved more targeted meat production through alternative genetic improvement program such as marker assisted selection (MAS). We carried out ddRT-PCR in 12 and 27 month old Hanwoo steers and detected 300 bp PCR product of the inducible cAMP early repressor (ICER) gene, showing highly gene expression in 27 months old. A 1.5 kb sequence was re-sequenced using primer designed base on the Hanwoo EST sequence. We then predicted the open reading frame (ORF) of ICER gene in ORF finder web program. Tissue distribution of ICER gene expression was analysed in eight Hanwoo tissue using realtime PCR analysis. The highest ICER gene expression showed in Small intestine followed by Longissimus dorsi. Interestingly, the ICER gene expressed 2.5 time higher in longissimus dorsi than in same muscle type, Rump. For gene expression analysis in high- and low marbled individuals, we selected 4 and 3 animal based on the muscle crude fat contents (high is 17-32%, low is 6-7% of crude fat contents). The ICER gene expression was analysed using ANOVA model. Marbling (muscle crude fat contents) was affected by ICER gene (P=0.012). Particularly, the ICER gene expression was 4 times higher in high group (n=4) than low group (n=3). Therefore, ICER gene might be a functional candidate gene related to marbling in Hanwoo.

Constrictive Bronchiolitis Accompanied By Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma (비 Hodgkin 림프종과 동반된 교착성 세기관지염)

  • Lee, Kye Young;Jee, Young Koo;Choi, Young Hi;Myong, Na Hye;Kim, Keun Youl
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.613-622
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    • 1996
  • Constrictive bronchiolitis, one of small airway diseases, is very rare and occupies one of the two arms of bronchiolitis obliterans together with proliferative bronchiolitis. Proliferative bronchiolitis, presenting the prototype with bronchiolitis obliterans with organizing pneumonia(BOOP), can be easily taken into diagnostic consideration in terms of relatively rapid clinical course and radiologic presentation as if atypical pneumonia with interstitial and alveolar infiltrations. Meanwhile constrictive bronchiolitis is not only very Tare but also easily overlooked as chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases such as emphysema, because it usually shows normal chest radiographic finding and obstructive pattern in pulmonary function test. In the aspects of the response to treatment, proliferative bronchiolitis showed dramatic response to the corticosteroid while constrictive bronchiolitis is intractable, which is easily explained on the basis of the pathologic characteristics of cicartrical replacement of bronchiolar walls. The bronchiolitis, both proliferative and constrictive, can be associated with diverse conditions such as inhalational injury, postinfectious process, drug of chemical induced reactions, connective tissue diseases, and organ trasplantation. And there is idiopathic type which has no associated condition. There is one explanation that both types of bronchiolitis lie on the same disease spectrum because the different disease pattern can be evoked from the same etiology. In contrast, another explanation is suggested that both types of bronchiolitis are one of nonspecific tissue reaction rather than a disease specific histologic finding because the various types of causes can provoke the same histologic findings. These dilemma remains for further investigation. With literature investigation, the authors report a case of constrictive bronchiolitis proven by open lung biopsy in 47 year old female who was diagnosed as non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and simultaneously had relatively rapid progression of airflow obstruction and showed negative radiographic finding without the rise factors for the development of chronic obstructive lung disease. We consider it as idiopathic because we could not find any relationship between constrictive bronchiolitis and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma on the literature search and it requires further investigation.

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A New High Grain Yielding Forage Rye Cultivar, "Seedgreen" (종자 생산량이 많은 호밀 신품종 "씨드그린")

  • Han, Ouk-Kyu;Hwang, Jong-Jin;Park, Hyung-Ho;Kim, Dea-Wook;Oh, Young-Jin;Park, Tae-Il;Ku, Ja-Hwan;Kwon, Young-Up;Kweon, Soon-Jong;Park, Kwang-Geun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2015
  • "Seedgreen" (Secale cereal L.), a new rye cultivar was developed by National Institute of Crop Science (NICS), RDA in 2013. It was developed from an open pollination from within 10 rye varieties or lines including "Chochun" in 1995. The line "SR95POP-S1-140-9-1-3-7-5-3" was selected for its excellent agronomic appearance, and was placed in yield trials for three years from 2008 to 2010. The new cultivar was designated "Homil50" and was placed in regional yield trials at the five locations around Korea from 2011 to 2013, during which time the name "Seedgreen" was given. This cultivar is an erect plant type and of a long size, with a dark-green leaf color, a yellowish-white colored, medium-diameter culm, and a brown-colored, medium-size grain. The heading and maturation dates of Seedgreen were April 22 and June 16, which were 3 days and 2 days earlier than that of "Gogu", respectively. Seedgreen also showed better winter hardiness and a greater resistance to lodging and wet injury compared to those of the check cultivar. Over three years, the average dry matter yield of Seedgreen was 8.3 ton $ha^{-1}$ (fresh yield = 39.8 ton $ha^{-1}$), which was harvested in late April and was lower than that of the check cultivar Gogu. The seed productivity of Seedgreen was approximately 4 ton $ha^{-1}$, which was 16 % more than that of the check. Seedgreen was higher to than Gogu in term of protein content (10.5% and 9.7%, respectively), total digestible nutrients (TDN) (58.3% and 57%, respectively), and TDN yield $ha^{-1}$ (4.81 ton and 4.77 ton, respectively). This cultivar is recommended as a fall sowing crop in areas where the average daily minimum-mean temperatures are higher than $-12^{\circ}C$ in January, and as a winter crop for whole-crop forage before the planting of rice or green manure around Korea.

Ecological Characteristics of Local Collections of Eleocharis kuroguwai Ohwi. and Their Geographical Differentiation (올방개 지방수집종(地方蒐集種)들의 생태적(生態的) 특성(特性) 및 그의 지리적(地理的) 분화(分化)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kwon, Yong-Woong;Seong, Ki-Yeong
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 1983
  • To study ecological characteristics of Eleocharis kuroguwai occuring in Korea its propagules were collected from 6 locations from the northern part to the southern part of Korea (Chuncheon, Suweon, Iri, Jeonju, Gwangiu and Milyang) in 1981, cultured and replanted 3 times (May 20, June 5, June 20) in 1982. They flowered from August 5 to August 27 when they were planted on May 20, and from August 20 to August 27 when they were planted on Tune 20. Plant height, number of tillers and top fresh weight/$m^2$ were 50-90cm, 500-875, and 175-750g, respectively when they were planted on May 20, and 40-70cm, 250-625, 325-625g, respectively when they were planted on June 20. Number of tubers per plant were 0.98-1.98 when they were planted on May 20, and 1.81-2.87 when they were planted on June 20. Eleocharis kuroguwai from Chuncheon or Suweon was more open in plant type, shorter in plant height, narrower in diameter of pedicel and shorter in inflorescence than those from Iri, Jeonju or Gwangju. Each of the local collections may be regarded as different ecotype, based on the above differences in morphology and responses in growth and flowering to the planting dates. The results appear to imply that Eleocharis kuroguwai weeds occurring in various locations of Korea are different one another in competitive avility with rice crop.

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Geological Structure of Okcheon Metamorphic Zone in the Miwon-Boeun area, Korea (미원-보은지역에서 옥천변성대의 지질구조)

  • 강지훈;이철구
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.3_4
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    • pp.234-249
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    • 2002
  • The Miwon-Boeun area in the central and northern part of Okcheon metamorphic zone, Korea, is composed of Okcheon Supergroup and Mesozoic Cheongju and Boeun granitoids which intruded it. The Okcheon Supergroup consists mainly of quartzite (Midongsan Formation), meta-calcareous rocks (Daehyangsan Formation, Hwajeonri Formation), meta-psammitic rocks (Unkyori Formation), meta-politic rocks (Munjuri Formation), meta-conglomeratic rocks (Hwanggangni Formation) in the study area, showing a zonal distribution of NE trend. Its' general trend is locally changed into NS to EW trend in and around high-angle fault of NS or NW trend. This study focused on deformation history of the Okcheon Supergroup, suggesting that the geological structure was formed at least by four phases of deformation. (1) The first phase of deformation occurred under ductile shear deformation of top-to-the southeast movement, forming sheath fold or A-type fold, asymmetric isoclinal fold, NW-SE trending stretching lineation. (2) The second phase of deformation took place under compression of NW-SE direction, forming subhorizontal, tight upright fold of M trend in the earlier phase, and formed semi-brittle thrust fault (Guryongsan Thrust Fault) of top-to-the southeast movement and associated snake-head fold in the later phase. (3) The third phase of deformation formed subhorizontal, open recumbent fold through gravitational or extensional collapses which might be generated from crustal thickening and gravitational instability. (4) The fourth phase of deformation formed moderately plunging, steeply inclined kink fold related to high-angle faulting, being closely connected with the local change of NE-trending regional foliation into NS to EW direction of strike in the vicinity of the high-angle fault.

Analysis of User Behavior for the Revitalization of Small Parks near Stations by the Location Types in Influential Subway Area (역세권내 역 인접 소공원의 유형별 이용행태분석을 통한 활성화 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Joo-Hee;Park, Jin-A.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2008
  • The government is planning to link a small park with the soon to be ready subway line 9 as a part of Seoul's policy, "The standard or plan for making a water-friendly space by water use" (2007). However, the specified concepts and instructions of the small parks need further work. Therefore, the policy is expected to expand to neighboring small parks near the subway station, but these are not supported by research or data which suggests the needs or actual user behavior and utilization of small parks. our country added the specified concept of small parks and theme parks to the classification of urban parks in the Urban Park Act Revision (2005.3.31), but the concept of small parks is not clearly settled in the law in the scopes of its function, scale, promotion nor particularly defined plans for small park projects. This study examines as small park near a subway station. The characteristics of there region and users vary from the characteristics of the station and region. In the "directions for concrete standards under the types of urban parks and green zones" (2007.2) the types of small parks are classified by "regional characteristics" and "user characteristics". Therefore, this study classifies the subject of neighboring small parks near subway stations as the neighborhood and small urban parks according to the Urban Park Act. The study was paralleled with observation and questionnaires on the analysis of the neighborhood and small urban parks. The actual conditions of park utilization and user behavioral characteristics were deducted by observation, while the questionnaire determined actual user utilization, importance and satisfaction level as well as the small park environment. This study largely focused on three aspects: park facility, design of this sentence isn't even complete. The second aspect isn't finished and the third isn't here.

The impact of open innovation activities on performance of Korean IT SMEs·Venture: Technology Transfer Experiences and Technological Collaborations (중소·벤처기업의 개방형혁신 노력이 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 기술이전경험과 기술협력유형을 중심으로)

  • Roh, Doo-Hwan;Hwang, Kyung-Ho;Park, Ho-Young
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2017
  • In Korea, small and medium sized domestic enterprises (SMEs) play an pivotal role in the national economy, accounting for 99.8% of all enterprises, 87.9% of total employment, and 48.3% of production. and SMEs were driving a real force of the development of national economy in many respects such as innovation, job creation, industrial diversity, balanced regional development. Despite their crucial role in the national development, most of SMEs suffer from a lack of R&D capabilities and equipments as well as funding capacity. Government-Supported Research Institute (GRI) can provide SMEs with valuable supplementary technological knowledges and help them build technological capacities. so, In order to effectively support SMEs, government and GRI must be a priority to know about the factors influencing the performance related to technology transfer and technological collaborations. The paper analyzes the effects of Korean IT SMEs Venture external collaborations and technology transfer on their performances, according to their collaboration activities and technology transfer experiences. The results show that there was a significant difference between '3~5times' of technology transfer experience and 'zero technology transfer experience' in the case of technology transfer experience. In case of technological collaboration type, there was a significant difference between 'R&D manpower' and 'enhancement of technological capabilities including core technologies'. The results show that the effectiveness of technology transfer of Korean IT SMEs Venture depends on experiences, types of collaboration activities. so the results of this research will be useful for Government-Supported research institute (GRI)' policy makers when establishing technology commercialization support policies and strategic planning of small and medium sized domestic enterprises.

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The Effect of a Chest CT Scan on the Treatment and Diagnosis of Major Blunt Chest Trauma (흉부 둔상환자에서 흉부전산화단층촬영이 진단과 치료에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Il-Hwan;Oh, Joong-Hwan;Lee, Chong-Kook
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.226-232
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    • 2009
  • Background: Blunt chest trauma accounts for 90% of all chest traumas in Europe and the United States and this causes 20% of all trauma-related deaths. The major cause of morbidity and mortality after blunt chest trauma is undetected injuries. For this reason, chest computerized tomography has gained popularity for the evaluation of trauma, but it is expensive and it exposes patients to radiation. This study identified the clinical features associated with the diagnosic information obtained on a CT chest scan, as compared with a standard chest X-ray, for patients who sustained blunt trauma to the chest. This study also evaluated the role of a routine computed tomographic (CT) scan for these patients. The patients who had chest computed tomography done after the initial chest x-ray were analyzed separately for the presence of occult injuries. Material and Method: We studied 100 consecutive patients from November 2006 to July 2007: 74 patients after motor vehicle crashes and 26 patients after a fall from a height >2m. Simultaneous with the initial clinical evaluation, an anteroposterior chest radiograph and a helical chest CT scan were obtained for all the patients. The data extracted from the medical record included the vital signs, the interventions and the type and severity of injury (RTS). Result: Among the 100 cases, 79 patients showed at least more than one pathologic sign on their chest radiograph, and 21 patients had a normal chest radiograph. For 17 of the patients who had a normal chest X ray, the CT scan showed multiple injuries, which were pneumothorax, hemothorax, lung contusion, sternal fracture etc. This represents that a CT scan is statistically superior to a chest radiograph to diagnose the pathologic signs. But on the other hand, as for treatment, only 31 patients were diagnosed by CT scan and they were treated with chest tube insertion ect. 42 patients needed ony conservative management without invasive thoracosurgical treatment such as chest tube insertion or open thoracotomy. 27 patients were treated based on the diagnosis made by the chest radiograph and physical examination. Conclusion: Chest computerized tomography was significantly more effective than routine chest X-ray for detecting lung contusion, pneumothorax and mediastinal hematoma, as well as fractured ribs, scapula and, sternum. Although the occult findings increased, the number of patients who needed treatment was small. Therefore, we suggest making selective use of a CT scan to avoid its overuse in ERs.