• Title/Summary/Keyword: Oil Prices

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Impacts of the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Government Deficit on Aggregate Output in Australia

  • Hsing, Yu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2017
  • Based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply, this paper estimates a reduced-form equation specifying that the equilibrium real GDP is a function of the real effective exchange rate, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate, foreign income, labor productivity, the real oil price, the expected inflation rate, and the interactive and intercept binary variables accounting for a potential change in the slope of the real effective exchange rate and shift in the intercept. Applying the exponential GARCH technique, it finds that aggregate output in Australia has a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2003.Q3 - 2013.Q2, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, U.S. real GDP, labor productivity and the real oil price and a negative relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2013.Q3 - 2016.Q1, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that real appreciation was expansionary before 2013.Q3 whereas real depreciation was expansionary after 2013.Q2 and that more government deficit as a percent of GDP would be helpful to stimulate the economy. Hence, the impact of real appreciation or real depreciation on real GDP may change overtime.

The Building Energy Efficient Policy to Tackle Rising High Oil Prices in Korea (고유가시대에 대비한 건축물의 에너지효율화관련 시책 현황)

  • Jeong, Young-Sun;Choi, Gyoung-Seok;Kim, Kyoung-Woo;Kang, Jae-Sik;Lee, Seung-Eon
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.959-964
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    • 2006
  • Recently, an international oil price shows fluctuation in 70 dollars per barrel and it is said that this trend is able to continues for much longer. Because energy consumption in buildings accounted for about 25% of the nation's total demand for energy, Energy censervation and efficiency of buildings were very important issues. Main political measures relating to building energy use and saving were 'the system of accrediting green building', 'building energy certification system', 'energy consumption efficiency rating indication system', 'building energy code', 'high efficient energy materials certification system'. This paper presents approaches to improve building energy efficiency policy.

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The Contagion of Covid-19 Pandemic on The Volatilities of International Crude Oil Prices, Gold, Exchange Rates and Bitcoin

  • OZTURK, M. Busra Engin;CAVDAR, Seyma Caliskan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2021
  • In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

Analysis of Extreme Values of Daily Percentage Increases and Decreases in Crude Oil Spot Prices (국제현물원유가의 일일 상승 및 하락율의 극단값 분석)

  • Yun, Seok-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.835-844
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    • 2010
  • Tools for statistical analysis of extreme values include the classical annual maximum method, the modern threshold method and variants improving the second one. While the annual maximum method is to t th generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maxima of a time series, the threshold method is to the generalized Pareto distribution to the excesses over a high threshold from the series. In this paper we deal with the Poisson-GPD method, a variant of the threshold method with a further assumption that the total number of exceedances follows the Poisson distribution, and apply it to the daily percentage increases and decreases computed from the spot prices of West Texas Intermediate, which were collected from January 4th, 1988 until December 31st, 2009. According to this analysis, the distribution of daily percentage increases as well as decreases turns out to have a heavy tail, unlike the normal distribution, which coincides well with the general phenomenon appearing in the analysis of lots of nowaday nancial data.

Transmission of Chinese Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Korea (중국 통화정책 변화가 한국에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Yujeong
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.43-69
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    • 2021
  • As the trade linkages and the financial relationship between China and Korea grow stronger, China's influence on Korea is also growing larger. Therefore, it is meaningful to examine key features of Chinese monetary policy operations and the current situation, and to analyze the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy shocks onto the Korea economy. China's monetary policy shocks can have an impact on the Korea economy through the trade, financial and oil-price channels. In the trade channel, an expansionary Chinese monetary policy can increase Korea's exports of intermediate goods to China under the vertical trade structure, via the vertical trade integration effect. Meanwhile, the expenditure switching effect and the income demand effect show no statistical significance. In the financial and oil-price channels, expansionary Chinese monetary policy shocks can decrease the interest rate and increase both stock prices and the consumer price index in Korea through changes in global portfolio capital flows, interest rates, and raw material prices.

A Study of Correlation Between China Iron Ore Import, Steel Export Activity and Dry Bulk Index : Focus on Capesize C5/C10/C14 and Supramax S2/S3 (중국의 철광석 수입량과 철강 수출량이 부정기선 운임지수에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Bong-Gil;Oh, Jin-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-136
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the impact of China's iron ore imports and exports on the tramper freight rate of China. The import volume of iron ore in China, the export volume of steel products in China, and exogenous variables were used as independent variables. The dependent variables were BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14, BSI, S2, and S3. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted. The correlation analysis showed that China's iron ore imports were not related to the remaining BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, and S3, except for the C14 index. However, there was a positive correlation between the ship's space and international oil prices, and it was not related to China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The export volume of steel products was negatively correlated with BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, and international oil prices, and was not related to iron ore imports, ship space, and China's PMI. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's iron ore imports and exogenous variables, China's PMI was rejected within the hypothesis. However, the hypothesis on international oil prices and ship space was adopted. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's steel export volume and exogenous variables, the hypothesis on BDI and the S3 index was adopted, and the hypothesis on BSI and S2 was rejected. In the analysis results of this study, the ship space and oil prices were adopted in all the hypothesis results. Domestic companies participating in the tramper shipping market will need to be prepared through continuous monitoring of related indicators.

A Study on the Effect of Changes in Oil Price on Dry Bulk Freight Rates and Intercorrelations between Dry Bulk Freight Rates (국제유가의 변화가 건화물선 운임에 미치는 영향과 건화물선 운임간의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck;Kim, Seong-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.217-240
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    • 2011
  • In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

Authentication of Hempseed Oil from Different Commercial Oils Using Simple UV-Vis Spectrophotomety (UV-Vis spectrophotometry법을 이용한 다양한 유지류로부터 헴프씨드 오일의 진위 판별법)

  • Lee, Yun-Jin;Kang, Deok-Gyeong;Kim, Young-Min;Sohn, Ho-Yong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.362-367
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    • 2022
  • Hempseed, a dehulled Cannabis fructus, has high nutraceutical potential. It has plenty of essential amino acids, vitamins, and essential polyunsaturated fatty acids, including α- and γ-linolenic acid. Increased exercise capacity, cognitive function, and ameliorative effects against hypercholesterolemia, neuro-inflammation, thrombus formation, and learning and memory impairment were reported in hemp-seed oil-administered models. Therefore, the market prices of hempseed oil are 45~140-fold higher than the other plant-derived oils, such as soy, corn, olive, canola, or linseed oil. In this study, instead of FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) or FTIR-Raman spectroscopy, a simple UV-Vis spectrophotometry method was developed to authenticate the hempseed oil. Measurements of absorbance at 245, 305, and 415 nm of oils and calculations of 245/415 and 315/415 nm provided that the ratios of 245/415 and 315/415 nm of authentic hempseed oils were 12.9 and 9.6, respectively. The 245/415 and 315/415 nm of soy oil, corn oil, canola oil, and linseed oil were 35.4~61.8 and 29.7~50.8, respectively. This simple UV-Vis spectrophotometry method could also be applied to differentiate hempseed oil from blended oil products in markets.

Intra-Industry Market Response to the Tae-an Oil Spill Accident and the Corporate Environmental Disclosure (태안만 원유유출사건에 대한 시장반응과 환경공시)

  • Choi, Jong-Seo;Lim, Hyoung-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.17-54
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    • 2012
  • This paper researched market responses for listed companies in several industries affected by the major oil spill accident off the coast of Taean, in December 7, 2007. The Taean accident triggered considerable concerns in people over the possibility of potential future regulation in shipbuilding and petroleum industries. However, the accident also provided an unexpected business opportunity for environmental clean-up industry and shipbuilding industry. The oil spill triggered the acceleration of the enactment of policies that require all new oil tankers to be constructed with double hull, which is interpreted as a good news for shipbuilding industry. Increased public pressure coupled with the prospect of tightened regulation is expected to decrease the market values of firms in the affected business fields. The stock prices of shipbuilding companies dropped after the incident but dramatically surged after the enactment of the policy in January 31, 2008. Our study also found that companies with more extensive prior environmental disclosure had less negative market reactions during the first sixteen days following the accident.

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Rockets and Feathers Across Multi-Gasoline Products: Evidence from Error Correction Model (수송용 유류제품의 제품별 비대칭성에 관한 연구: 오차수정모형을 통한 접근)

  • Chang, Yenjae;Kim, Dae-Wook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.495-516
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    • 2016
  • This study empirically examines how asymmetric price adjustment of the retail gas price happens differently for various oil products, such as high-grade gasoline, regular gasoline, and diesel, by employing asymmetric error correction model within weekly data set from 2010~2015. Our estimation results show that the price adjustment, across the all oil types, predicated on shifting crude oil and wholesale oil prices is asymmetric. In addition, the duration of asymmetry was shorter in high-grade gasoline case than in other oil types. This took place by rapid price adjustment of high-grade gasoline price when faced with both cost increases and decreases, in comparison with regular gasoline and diesel cases. There results were attributed by characteristics of the consumer group and a high retail-wholesale margin of high-grade gasoline.