• Title/Summary/Keyword: Observation Probability. PDF

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Application of a large-scale ensemble climate simulation database for estimating the extreme rainfall (극한강우량 산정을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료의 적용)

  • Kim, Youngkyu;Son, Minwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.177-189
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to apply the d4PDF (Data for Policy Decision Making for Future Change) constructed from a large-scale ensemble climate simulation to estimate the probable rainfall with low frequency and high intensity. In addition, this study analyzes the uncertainty caused by the application of the frequency analysis by comparing the probable rainfall estimated using the d4PDF with that estimated using the observed data and frequency analysis at Geunsam, Imsil, Jeonju, and Jangsu stations. The d4PDF data consists of a total of 50 ensembles, and one ensemble provides climate and weather data for 60 years such as rainfall and temperature. Thus, it was possible to collect 3,000 annual maximum daily rainfall for each station. By using these characteristics, this study does not apply the frequency analysis for estimating the probability rainfall, and we estimated the probability rainfall with a return period of 10 to 1000 years by distributing 3,000 rainfall by the magnitude based on a non-parametric approach. Then, the estimated probability rainfall using d4PDF was compared with those estimated using the Gumbel or GEV distribution and the observed rainfall, and the deviation between two probability rainfall was estimated. As a result, this deviation increased as the difference between the return period and the observation period increased. Meanwhile, the d4PDF reasonably suggested the probability rainfall with a low frequency and high intensity by minimizing the uncertainty occurred by applying the frequency analysis and the observed data with the short data period.

Fast computation of Observation Probability for Speaker-Independent Real-Time Speech Recognition (실시간 화자독립 음성인식을 위한 고속 확률계산)

  • Park Dong-Chul;Ahn Ju-Won
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.9C
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    • pp.907-912
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    • 2005
  • An efficient method for calculation of observation probability in CDHMM(Continous Density Hidden Markov Model) is proposed in this paper. the proposed algorithm, called FCOP(Fast Computation of Observation Probability), approximate obsewation probabilities in CDHMM by eliminating insignificant PDFs(Probability Density Functions) and reduces the computational load. When applied to a speech recognition system, the proposed FCOP algorithm can reduce the instruction cycles by $20\%-30\%$ and can also increase the recognition speed about $30\%$ while minimizing the loss in its recognition rate. When implemented on a practical cellular phone, the FCOP algorithm can increase its recognition speed about $30\%$ while suffering $0.2\%$ loss in recognition rate.

PDF properties of ISM turbulence

  • Jo, Hyeon-Jin;Gang, Hye-Seong;Ryu, Dong-Su;Kim, Jong-Su;Jo, Jeong-Yeon
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.107.1-107.1
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    • 2011
  • Density Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) are a classic statistical way to study properties of Interstellar Medium (ISM) turbulence. In our three-dimensional MHD simulations, density PDFs of the position-position velocity (PPV) spaces are close to a log-normal distribution. the PDF widths depend on the plasma parameters such as magnetic strength and sonic Mach number. Futhermore, we compare these simulations results to Galactic molecular clouds observed by Jackson et. al (2006). By fitting of the velocity dispersion in the spectral line observation, volume density PDFs of the defined molecular clouds indicate that the sound speeds of the turbulences seem to have a few times larger than the simulation results. In order to understand the inconsistency with general characteristics of turbulence, we consider other simulations inducing the turbulent flow randomly at small driving scales. We find that the density PDF width decreases at more smaller driving scale. Finally, the simulations suggest that sources of ISM turbulence in Galactic molecular clouds can be important on small scales.

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Turbulence in Molecular clouds : Observation versus Simulation

  • Jo, Hyeon-Jin;Gang, Hye-Seong;Ryu, Dong-Su;Kim, Jong-Su;Jo, Jeong-Yeon
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.75.2-75.2
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    • 2010
  • We have studied the statistical properties of turbulence in molecular clouds identified in the Boston University - Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory (BU-FCRAO) Galactic Ring Survey (GRS). Toward this end, the probability density function (PDF) and velocity distribution were measured for about 50 molecular clouds. We found there exists a good correlation between the PDF width and the velocity dispersion for these molecular clouds. In order to investigate how general properties of astrophysical turbulence depends on the plasma parameters such as magnetic field strength and sonic Mach number, we performed three-dimensional MHD simulations. We then examined if the observed characteristics of interstellar turbulence are consistent with theoretical results from MHD simulations.

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A Study on Oxy-Fuel Combustion System with Multi-Jet Burner-Numerical Simulation with PDF Combustion Model (다공 동축 버너를 이용한 순산소 연소 시스템에 관한 연구-PDF 연소 모델을 이용한 수치해석)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Jun;Choi, Won-Young;Bae, Soo-Ho;Hong, Jung-Goo;Shin, Hyun-Dong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.504-512
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    • 2008
  • The characteristics of nonpremixed oxy-fuel flame in a multi-jet burner were experimentally and numerically investigated. The overall flow rate of fuel and oxygen was fixed, and the oxygen feeding ratio (OFR) was varied by 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75. The results of numerical simulation were compared with the measured results which are temperature profile and direct flame observation. The probability density function (PDF) model was applied accounting to the description between turbulence and chemistry, and standard ${\kappa}-{\varepsilon}$ model was used for turbulent flow field. Equilibrium assumption is very reasonable due to fast chemistry of the oxy-fuel combustion. Thus, the equilibrium calculation based on Gibbs free energy minimization was guaranteed to generate the solution of the oxy-fuel combustion. The result was obtained by numerical simulation. The predicted radial temperature profiles were in good agreement with the measured results. The flame length was shorten and was intensified with the decrease of OFR because the mixture of fuel and oxidizer are fast mixed and burnt. The maximum temperature became lower as the OFR increased, as a consequence of large flame surface area.

Moving Object Tracking in Active Camera Environment Based on Bayes Decision Theory (Bayes 결정이론에 기반을 둔 능동카메라 환경에서의 이동 물체의 검출 및 추적)

  • 배수현;강문기
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 1999
  • Moving object tracking improves the efficiency and qualification for observation system, broadcasting system, video conference, etc. This paper propcses an improved Bayes decision method for detecting and tracking moving objects in active camera environment. The Bayes decision based tracking approach finds the region of moving objects by analyzing the image sequences statistically. The propcsed algorithm regenerates the probability density function to accord with moving objects and background for active camera. Experimental results show that the algorithm is accurate. reliable and noise resistant. The result is compared with those of the conventional methods.

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Inverse model for pullout determination of steel fibers

  • Kozar, Ivica;Malic, Neira Toric;Rukavina, Tea
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.197-209
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    • 2018
  • Fiber-reinforced concrete (FRC) is a material with increasing application in civil engineering. Here it is assumed that the material consists of a great number of rather small fibers embedded into the concrete matrix. It would be advantageous to predict the mechanical properties of FRC using nondestructive testing; unfortunately, many testing methods for concrete are not applicable to FRC. In addition, design methods for FRC are either inaccurate or complicated. In three-point bending tests of FRC prisms, it has been observed that fiber reinforcement does not break but simply pulls out during specimen failure. Following that observation, this work is based on an assumption that the main components of a simple and rather accurate FRC model are mechanical properties of the concrete matrix and fiber pullout force. Properties of the concrete matrix could be determined from measurements on samples taken during concrete production, and fiber pullout force could be measured on samples with individual fibers embedded into concrete. However, there is no clear relationship between measurements on individual samples of concrete matrix with a single fiber and properties of the produced FRC. This work presents an inverse model for FRC that establishes a relation between parameters measured on individual material samples and properties of a structure made of the composite material. However, a deterministic relationship is clearly not possible since only a single beam specimen of 60 cm could easily contain over 100000 fibers. Our inverse model assumes that the probability density function of individual fiber properties is known, and that the global sample load-displacement curve is obtained from the experiment. Thus, each fiber is stochastically characterized and accordingly parameterized. A relationship between fiber parameters and global load-displacement response, the so-called forward model, is established. From the forward model, based on Levenberg-Marquardt procedure, the inverse model is formulated and successfully applied.

Analysis of Achievable Data Rate under BPSK Modulation: CIS NOMA Perspective (BPSK 변조의 최대 전송률 분석: 상관 정보원의 비직교 다중 접속 관점에서)

  • Chung, Kyu-Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.995-1002
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the achievable data rate for non-orthogonal multiple access(NOMA) with correlated information sources(CIS), under the binary phase shift keying(BPSK) modulation, in contrast to most of the existing NOMA designs using continuous Gaussian input modulations. First, the closed-form expression for the achievable data rate of NOMA with CIS and BPSK is derived, for both users. Then it is shown by numerical results that for the stronger channel user, the achievable data rate of CIS reduces, compared with that of independent information sources( IIS). We also demonstrate that for the weaker channel user, the achievable data rate of CIS increases, compared with that of IIS. In addition, the intensive analyses of the probability density function(PDF) of the observation and the inter-user interferennce(IUI) are provided to verify our theoretical results.

Estimation and Analysis of Wave Spectrum Parameter using HeMOSU-2 Observation Data (HeMOSU-2 관측 자료를 이용한 파랑 스펙트럼 매개변수 추정 및 분석)

  • Lee, Uk-Jae;Ko, Dong-Hui;Kim, Ji-Young;Cho, Hong-Yeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2021
  • In this study, wave spectrum data were calculated using the water surface elevation data observed at 5Hz intervals from the HeMOSU-2 meteorological tower installed on the west coast of Korea, and wave parameters were estimated using wave spectrum data. For all significant wave height ranges, the peak enhancement parameter (γopt) of the JONSWAP spectrum and the scale parameter (α) and shape parameter (β) of the modify BM spectrum were estimated based on the observed spectrum, and the distribution of each parameter was confirmed. As a result of the analysis, the peak enhancement parameter (γopt) of the JONSWAP spectrum was calculated to be 1.27, which is very low compared to the previously proposed 3.3. And in the range of all significant wave heights, the distribution of the peak enhancement parameter (γopt) was shown as a combined distribution of probability mass function (PMF) and probability density function (PDF). In addition, the scale parameter (α) and shape parameter (β) of the modify BM spectrum were estimated to be [0.245, -1.278], which are lower than the existing [0.300, -1.098], and the result of the linear correlation analysis between the two parameters was β = -3.86α.

Application of Multi-Dimensional Precipitation Models to the Sampling Error Problem (관측오차문제에 대한 다차원 강우모형의 적용)

  • Yu, Cheol-Sang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.441-447
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    • 1997
  • Rainfall observation using rain gage network or satellites includes the sampling error depending on the observation methods or plans. For example, the sampling using rain gages is continuous in time but discontinuous in space, which is nothing but the source of the sampling error. The sampling using satellites is the reverse case that continuous in space and discontinuous in time. The sampling error may be quantified by use of the temporal-spatial characteristics of rainfall and the sampling design. One of recent works on this problem was done by North and Nakamoto (1989), who derived a formulation for estimating the sampling error based on the temporal-spatial rainfall spectrum and the design scheme. The formula enables us to design an optimal rain gage network or a satellite operation plan providing the statistical characteristics of rainfall. In this paper the formula is reviewed and applied for the sampling error problems using several multi-dimensional precipitation models. The results show the limitation of the formulation, which cannot distinguish the model difference in case the model parameters can reproduce similar second order statistics of rainfall. The limitation can be improved by developing a new way to consider the higher order statistics, and eventually the probability density function (PDF) of rainfall.

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