• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.82-114
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• 2016

The purpose of this article is to analyze the progress of North Korea's SLBM threat, and to assess the technological capacity and threat level of its SLBMs. Currently, North Korea has approximately 1000 ballistic missiles, such as the SCUD, Musudan, and Nodong, in stock. This article pays close attention to the background and strategical implication behind North Korea's obsession with developing SLBMs despite possessing sufficient means to launch provocations with its current arsenal of ground based ballistic missiles and conventional weapons. Based on the abovementioned analysis, this article will recommend possible response directions for the ROK Armed Forces to North Korea's SLBM threat. It is highly difficult to detect SLBMs due to its stealthy nature, as it is launched underwater after covert infiltration. North Korea's SLBM is considered a game changer in that even one SLBM can significantly change the strategic balance of North East Asia. North Korea's SLBM test launch in August has made a 500km flight, landing 80km inside the JADIZ (Japan Air Defense Identification Zone), and as such, it is assessed that North Korea already possesses underwater ejection and cold launch capabilities. The most realistic response to North Korea's imminent SLBM threat is bolstering anti-submarine capabilities. ROK Armed Forces need to upgrade its underwater kill-chain by modernizing and introducing new airborne anti-submarine assets and nuclear-powered submarines, among many options. Moreover, we should integrate SM-3 missiles with the Aegis Combat system that possess strong detection capabilities and flexibility, thereby establishing a sea-based Ballistic Missle Defense (BMD) system centered around the Aegis Combat System, as sea-based ballistic missile threats are best countered out in the seas. Finally, the capabilities gap that could arise as a result of budgetary concerns and timing of fielding new assets should be filled by establishing firm ROK-US-Japan combined defense posture.

• Strategy21
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• 통권41호
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• pp.232-260
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to open a debate about what kind of deterrent strategy the ROK military should pursue in the era of NK's weapons of mass destruction and missile threats. I argue that the ROK military needs a comprehensive deterrent strategy that reflects the international security situations and trends and that builds on clear understanding of the basic concepts and how deterrence operates. The paper starts with surveying the basic knowledge of deterrence from the perspectives of both theory and practice. Then, it provides explanations on why deterrence against NK can be particularly difficult given the security environment in and around the Korean peninsula. For example, South Korea and North Korea hardly share 'common knowledge' that serves as a basic element for the operation of deterrence. Deterrence against North Korea involves complex situations in that both deterrence and compellence strategies may be relevant particularly to North Korea's WMD and missile threats. It also involves both immediate and general deterrence. Based on the discussion, I suggest several ideas that may serve as guidelines for establishing a deterrent strategy against NK. First, our threats for deterrence should be the ones that can be realized, particularly in terms of the international norms. In other words, they must be considered appropriate among other nations in the international community. Second, there should be separate plans for the different kinds of threats: one is conventional, local provocations and the other is WMD/missile related provocations. Third, we should pursue much closer cooperative relations with the U.S. military to enhance the effectiveness of immediate deterrence in the Korean peninsula. Fourth, the ROK military should aim to accomplish 'smart deterrence' maximizing the benefits of technological superiority. Fifth, the ROK military readiness and structure should be able to deny emerging North Korean military threats such as the submarine-launched ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Lastly, in executing threats, we should consider that the current action influences credibility and reputation of the ROK, which in turn affect the decisions for future provocations. North Korea's WMD/missile threats may soon become critical strategic-level threats to South Korea. In retrospect, the first debate on building a missile defense system in South Korea dates back to the 1980s. Mostly the debate has centered on whether or not South Korea's system should be integrated into the U.S. missile defense system. In the meantime, North Korea has become a small nuclear power that can threaten the United States with the ballistic missiles capability. If North Korea completes the SLBM program and loads the missiles on a submarine with improved underwater operation capability, then, South Korea may have to face the reality of power politics demonstrated by Thucydides through the Athenians: "The strong do what they have the power to do, the weak accept what they have to accept."

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.131-140
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• 2020

The characteristics of ballistic missiles are changing rapidly but studies have mostly focused on fragmentary flight trajectory analysis estimating the changing characteristics of some types, while there is a lack of research on comprehensive and efficient ballistic search, detection and prediction for missiles including the new types that have been gaining attention lately. This paper analyzes the flight trajectory characteristics of ballistic missiles at various ranges considering flight path angle adjustment, specific impulse and drag force with altitude based on the optimized equations of motion reflecting the parameters of North Korea's general and new types of ballistic missiles. The flight trajectory characteristics of representative ranges for each ballistic missile were analyzed by adjusting the flight path angle in the minimum energy method, lofted method, and depressed method. In addition, High value target can attacked by ballistic missiles considering flight path angle adjustment at various points. It's expected to be used to Threat Evaluation and Weapon Allocation, and deployment of defense systems by interpreting the analysis of the latest Iskander-class ballistic missiles and the new multiple rocket launcher.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.118-126
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• 2016

North Korea has continued developing ballistic missiles with various ranges. Even through the recent launch long-range missiles, it can be inferred that North Korea's Missile technology has reached a level where it can even threaten the US. moreover, through the three times nuclear tests, North Korea is known to have succeeded at gaining 10~20KT of explosive power as well as the minimization and lightening of nuclear warhead. Considering the short length of war zone in Korean peninsula and the possibility of nuclear equipment, if be the most severe threat across the whole peninsula. Since the midcourse phase flight takes the longest time, ROK should establish the ability to intercept at this middle phase. From this perspective, this paper describes mission effect of a sea-based BMD system through empirical threat and flight characteristic analysis using MIT model that was not suggested in original research.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.109-115
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• 2019

북의 단거리 발사체 및 미사일은 S-300 계열 이스칸데르급으로 사거리는 270-420km, 고도는 40-50km 내에서 타격이 가능한 무기체계로 우리가 보유하고 있는 탐지레이더나 타격무기로는 대응이 매우 어렵다. 북이 서울 불바다를 운운하는 것도 이러한 단거리 로켓과 미사일에 핵이나 화학무기를 장착하여 수도권을 타격하겠다는 의도를 파악 할 수 있기 때문에 하루 빨리 대응무기의 전력화나 도입이 매우 시급하다. 북의 단거리 미사일 방어에 즉각 대응하기 위한 무기체계로 이스라엘에서 운용하고 있는 아이언 돔 및 아이언 빔 체계가 적합함으로 조기 도입하고 장기적으로 국내 자체적으로 단거리 미사일 방어를 위한 한국형 미사일방어와 타격체계인 Kill Chain을 지속 개발하고 국방과학연구소, 한국과학기술원, 방산 업체들과 협업하여 자체 기술력 확보로 북의 무모한 도발에 상시 대비할 수 있도록 만반의 준비태세를 갖추어야 하겠다.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.281-285
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• 2024

Within five years of Kim Jong-un's rise to power, North Korea conducted four nuclear tests and launched the Hwasong-15, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), in 2017, declaring the completion of its nuclear forces. During the period when Kim Jong-un completed nuclear forces to maintain the regime, foreign policy factors of the United States, China, Russia, and South Korea drove North Korea's accelerated nuclear development. The main motivating factors were the hostile policies and external threats as security factors. The completion of nuclear forces is also the result of the interplay of domestic political factors, normative factors, and hereditary factors. North Korea has been developing nuclear weapons and missiles for the survival of its regime. To achieve lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, a new modus vivendi must be sought. It is necessary to set the ultimate goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization and engage in strategic thinking for a realistic and effective phased approach.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

North Korea is now under the pressure of international sanctions due to its nuclear tests, firing of long-range ballistic missiles, the sinking of the ROK naval frigate the Cheonan, and the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island that killed four people. To overcome the burden of sanctions North Korea has exerted various efforts to reconstruct its industries. However, it is very unlikely that these reconstruction efforts would produce significant results due to the structural problems of the antiquated infrastructure of North Korean industries. In the future, it is expected that South Korea will have to cooperate with North Korea for the reconstruction of the North Korean economy after the North Korean nuclear issue will be peacefully resolved. South Korean government has to prepare for the reconstruction with careful planning based on analysis of North Korean industries. But, the number of previous studies that have analyzed the technological level of North Korean industries are quite limited. In preparation for the future inter-Korean industrial cooperation, this study tries to analyze the technological level of North Korean industries. The steel industry has been selected as the focus for the main analysis of this study due to the importance of the steel industry as one of key infrastructure industries. Additionally, this study tests the sustainability of the North Korean steel industry by looking into the possibility of whether the North Korean steel industry can sustain or grow while maintaining global competitiveness in the future when the market opens to the world. Such analysis is expected to contribute to the joint prosperity of two Koreas in the short term and the reduction of unification costs in long term.

• 안보군사학연구
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• 통권8호
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• pp.271-309
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• 2010

The main theme of this study is about North Korea's contemporary military strategy which remained a blind spot in the 21st century. Indeed, Pyongyang's contemporary military strategy is evolved from the logic of War. On the basis of this logic, this study examined North Korea's contemporary military strategy with three analytical frameworks. The first is the discovery of Clausewitz's dictums and application of the Trinitarian analysis on the Korean cases. During the course of applying Clausewitzian main dictum--War as continuation of politics, the methodological analysis on war played a important role generalizing the pattern and matrix of North Korea's strategic thinking and military strategy. In particular, Clausewitz's Trinitarian framework on war -Government (reason), Army (chance), People (passion)- was a universal framework to scrutinize the North Korean missile and nuclear strategy. The second is about the matrix of North Korea's military strategy, The study suggested the genealogical feature of Pyongyang's military strategy. In principle, the dictum of 'Military-First Politics' 1S the combination of the political philosophy, Chuch'e (self-reliance) of Kim Il Sung and Kin Jong Il reflected in the military readiness. As a result this analysis was able to equate Clausewitz's dictums to explain Pyongyang's idea of the nature of war in that North Korea's military strategy is the central instrument of delivery to achieve political objectives. The third is about the theoretical encounter of 'Clausewitz's Wonderful Trinity' and 'Remarkable Trinity on North Korea's contemporary strategy'. On the basis, three elements are connected to one of three groups in society; the people, the military, and the government. In order to apply the Clausewitz's Trinitarian analysis into Kim Jong Il's 'Military-First' strategy, two case studies (Missile and Nuclear strategy) were examined. The finding of this study is that Clausewitzian dictum in the 19th century is still valid in the 21st century as it provided plausible theoretical framework to explain the North Korean contemporary military strategy with a reminder that the nature and logic of war are fixed in the socially constructed state.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2017

현재 북한에서 3대 세습체제의 김정은은 역대 김일성과 김정일 정권보다 더욱 호전적으로 핵 및 미사일 도발을 자행하고 있다. 대한민국의 역대 정부는 나름대로의 북한의 도발을 억제하는 노력과 한반도에서의 평화정착을 위한 방안을 제시하여 왔지만 결과론적으로는 통치자로서의 기본 역할에 국한되어 온 것이 사실이다. 2017년 2월 미국의 트럼프 행정부 출범에 따라 미국 대선 과정에서의 공약과 현재에는 대통령령으로서의 통치 스타일을 고려할 때 한반도 문제와 관련하여 다소 희망적이었던 것은 사실이나, 최근 들어 트럼프 대통령의 한반도 관련 다양한 발언은 우리의 상황을 암울하게 하고 있다. 이의 연장에서 김정은의 핵 및 미사일 집착은 역대 북한 정권이 기초를 닦아놓았고 이제 마무리하여 실전배치를 앞둔 상황에서 핵 및 미사일의 경량화, 고도화, 다종화를 기치로 더욱 무모한 도발을 하고 있는 현실이다. 이에 우리는 현재 안보상황을 과거처럼 타국에만 의존할 수 없으며, 대한민국 스스로 무엇을 어떻게 할 것인가를 찾기 위해 북한의 핵 및 미사일 도발을 중심으로 대응방안을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2014년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.518-520
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• 2014

레이더를 이용하여 표적을 탐지함에 있어 표적의 Radar Cross Section(RCS)은 매우 중요한 요소이다. 동일한 표적이라도 레이더를 바라보는 방향에 따라 RCS 값이 크게 차이 나며, 레이더로 표적을 탐지하는 확률을 높이기 위해 RCS가 크게 나타나는 곳에 레이더를 배치하는 것이 유리하다. 북한의 탄도미사일은 우리의 안보에 큰 위협이 되고 있으며, 탄도미사일 방어를 위해 레이더를 이용하여 미사일을 조기에 탐지하여 추적하여야한다. 본 논문에서는 탄도미사일의 RCS 특성과 북한 탄도미사일의 탄도를 분석하여 탄도미사일의 탐지확률을 높이기 위한 레이더 배치 방안을 제시하였다.