• Strategy21
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• s.40
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• pp.82-114
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• 2016

The purpose of this article is to analyze the progress of North Korea's SLBM threat, and to assess the technological capacity and threat level of its SLBMs. Currently, North Korea has approximately 1000 ballistic missiles, such as the SCUD, Musudan, and Nodong, in stock. This article pays close attention to the background and strategical implication behind North Korea's obsession with developing SLBMs despite possessing sufficient means to launch provocations with its current arsenal of ground based ballistic missiles and conventional weapons. Based on the abovementioned analysis, this article will recommend possible response directions for the ROK Armed Forces to North Korea's SLBM threat. It is highly difficult to detect SLBMs due to its stealthy nature, as it is launched underwater after covert infiltration. North Korea's SLBM is considered a game changer in that even one SLBM can significantly change the strategic balance of North East Asia. North Korea's SLBM test launch in August has made a 500km flight, landing 80km inside the JADIZ (Japan Air Defense Identification Zone), and as such, it is assessed that North Korea already possesses underwater ejection and cold launch capabilities. The most realistic response to North Korea's imminent SLBM threat is bolstering anti-submarine capabilities. ROK Armed Forces need to upgrade its underwater kill-chain by modernizing and introducing new airborne anti-submarine assets and nuclear-powered submarines, among many options. Moreover, we should integrate SM-3 missiles with the Aegis Combat system that possess strong detection capabilities and flexibility, thereby establishing a sea-based Ballistic Missle Defense (BMD) system centered around the Aegis Combat System, as sea-based ballistic missile threats are best countered out in the seas. Finally, the capabilities gap that could arise as a result of budgetary concerns and timing of fielding new assets should be filled by establishing firm ROK-US-Japan combined defense posture.

• Strategy21
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• s.41
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• pp.232-260
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to open a debate about what kind of deterrent strategy the ROK military should pursue in the era of NK's weapons of mass destruction and missile threats. I argue that the ROK military needs a comprehensive deterrent strategy that reflects the international security situations and trends and that builds on clear understanding of the basic concepts and how deterrence operates. The paper starts with surveying the basic knowledge of deterrence from the perspectives of both theory and practice. Then, it provides explanations on why deterrence against NK can be particularly difficult given the security environment in and around the Korean peninsula. For example, South Korea and North Korea hardly share 'common knowledge' that serves as a basic element for the operation of deterrence. Deterrence against North Korea involves complex situations in that both deterrence and compellence strategies may be relevant particularly to North Korea's WMD and missile threats. It also involves both immediate and general deterrence. Based on the discussion, I suggest several ideas that may serve as guidelines for establishing a deterrent strategy against NK. First, our threats for deterrence should be the ones that can be realized, particularly in terms of the international norms. In other words, they must be considered appropriate among other nations in the international community. Second, there should be separate plans for the different kinds of threats: one is conventional, local provocations and the other is WMD/missile related provocations. Third, we should pursue much closer cooperative relations with the U.S. military to enhance the effectiveness of immediate deterrence in the Korean peninsula. Fourth, the ROK military should aim to accomplish 'smart deterrence' maximizing the benefits of technological superiority. Fifth, the ROK military readiness and structure should be able to deny emerging North Korean military threats such as the submarine-launched ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Lastly, in executing threats, we should consider that the current action influences credibility and reputation of the ROK, which in turn affect the decisions for future provocations. North Korea's WMD/missile threats may soon become critical strategic-level threats to South Korea. In retrospect, the first debate on building a missile defense system in South Korea dates back to the 1980s. Mostly the debate has centered on whether or not South Korea's system should be integrated into the U.S. missile defense system. In the meantime, North Korea has become a small nuclear power that can threaten the United States with the ballistic missiles capability. If North Korea completes the SLBM program and loads the missiles on a submarine with improved underwater operation capability, then, South Korea may have to face the reality of power politics demonstrated by Thucydides through the Athenians: "The strong do what they have the power to do, the weak accept what they have to accept."

• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2020

The characteristics of ballistic missiles are changing rapidly but studies have mostly focused on fragmentary flight trajectory analysis estimating the changing characteristics of some types, while there is a lack of research on comprehensive and efficient ballistic search, detection and prediction for missiles including the new types that have been gaining attention lately. This paper analyzes the flight trajectory characteristics of ballistic missiles at various ranges considering flight path angle adjustment, specific impulse and drag force with altitude based on the optimized equations of motion reflecting the parameters of North Korea's general and new types of ballistic missiles. The flight trajectory characteristics of representative ranges for each ballistic missile were analyzed by adjusting the flight path angle in the minimum energy method, lofted method, and depressed method. In addition, High value target can attacked by ballistic missiles considering flight path angle adjustment at various points. It's expected to be used to Threat Evaluation and Weapon Allocation, and deployment of defense systems by interpreting the analysis of the latest Iskander-class ballistic missiles and the new multiple rocket launcher.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.118-126
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• 2016

North Korea has continued developing ballistic missiles with various ranges. Even through the recent launch long-range missiles, it can be inferred that North Korea's Missile technology has reached a level where it can even threaten the US. moreover, through the three times nuclear tests, North Korea is known to have succeeded at gaining 10~20KT of explosive power as well as the minimization and lightening of nuclear warhead. Considering the short length of war zone in Korean peninsula and the possibility of nuclear equipment, if be the most severe threat across the whole peninsula. Since the midcourse phase flight takes the longest time, ROK should establish the ability to intercept at this middle phase. From this perspective, this paper describes mission effect of a sea-based BMD system through empirical threat and flight characteristic analysis using MIT model that was not suggested in original research.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.109-115
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• 2019

The North's short-range projectiles and missiles are the Iskander-class missiles of the S-300 series, with a range of 270-420 kilometers and an altitude of 40-50 kilometers, making it very difficult to respond with South Korea's detection radar or striking weapons. The North's handling of the Seoul sea of fire also makes it very urgent for the South to deploy the weapons to power or introduce them as soon as possible, as it can identify its intention to strike the Seoul metropolitan area by equipping such short-range rockets and missiles with nuclear or chemical weapons. We will be prepared to prep are for reckless provocations by securing our own technology by continuously developing the Korean missile defense system and striking system, Kill Chain, which is designed to defend short-range missiles in the long-term, and securing our own technology.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.281-285
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• 2024

Within five years of Kim Jong-un's rise to power, North Korea conducted four nuclear tests and launched the Hwasong-15, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), in 2017, declaring the completion of its nuclear forces. During the period when Kim Jong-un completed nuclear forces to maintain the regime, foreign policy factors of the United States, China, Russia, and South Korea drove North Korea's accelerated nuclear development. The main motivating factors were the hostile policies and external threats as security factors. The completion of nuclear forces is also the result of the interplay of domestic political factors, normative factors, and hereditary factors. North Korea has been developing nuclear weapons and missiles for the survival of its regime. To achieve lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, a new modus vivendi must be sought. It is necessary to set the ultimate goal of North Korea's complete denuclearization and engage in strategic thinking for a realistic and effective phased approach.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

North Korea is now under the pressure of international sanctions due to its nuclear tests, firing of long-range ballistic missiles, the sinking of the ROK naval frigate the Cheonan, and the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island that killed four people. To overcome the burden of sanctions North Korea has exerted various efforts to reconstruct its industries. However, it is very unlikely that these reconstruction efforts would produce significant results due to the structural problems of the antiquated infrastructure of North Korean industries. In the future, it is expected that South Korea will have to cooperate with North Korea for the reconstruction of the North Korean economy after the North Korean nuclear issue will be peacefully resolved. South Korean government has to prepare for the reconstruction with careful planning based on analysis of North Korean industries. But, the number of previous studies that have analyzed the technological level of North Korean industries are quite limited. In preparation for the future inter-Korean industrial cooperation, this study tries to analyze the technological level of North Korean industries. The steel industry has been selected as the focus for the main analysis of this study due to the importance of the steel industry as one of key infrastructure industries. Additionally, this study tests the sustainability of the North Korean steel industry by looking into the possibility of whether the North Korean steel industry can sustain or grow while maintaining global competitiveness in the future when the market opens to the world. Such analysis is expected to contribute to the joint prosperity of two Koreas in the short term and the reduction of unification costs in long term.

• Journal of National Security and Military Science
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• s.8
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• pp.271-309
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• 2010

The main theme of this study is about North Korea's contemporary military strategy which remained a blind spot in the 21st century. Indeed, Pyongyang's contemporary military strategy is evolved from the logic of War. On the basis of this logic, this study examined North Korea's contemporary military strategy with three analytical frameworks. The first is the discovery of Clausewitz's dictums and application of the Trinitarian analysis on the Korean cases. During the course of applying Clausewitzian main dictum--War as continuation of politics, the methodological analysis on war played a important role generalizing the pattern and matrix of North Korea's strategic thinking and military strategy. In particular, Clausewitz's Trinitarian framework on war -Government (reason), Army (chance), People (passion)- was a universal framework to scrutinize the North Korean missile and nuclear strategy. The second is about the matrix of North Korea's military strategy, The study suggested the genealogical feature of Pyongyang's military strategy. In principle, the dictum of 'Military-First Politics' 1S the combination of the political philosophy, Chuch'e (self-reliance) of Kim Il Sung and Kin Jong Il reflected in the military readiness. As a result this analysis was able to equate Clausewitz's dictums to explain Pyongyang's idea of the nature of war in that North Korea's military strategy is the central instrument of delivery to achieve political objectives. The third is about the theoretical encounter of 'Clausewitz's Wonderful Trinity' and 'Remarkable Trinity on North Korea's contemporary strategy'. On the basis, three elements are connected to one of three groups in society; the people, the military, and the government. In order to apply the Clausewitz's Trinitarian analysis into Kim Jong Il's 'Military-First' strategy, two case studies (Missile and Nuclear strategy) were examined. The finding of this study is that Clausewitzian dictum in the 19th century is still valid in the 21st century as it provided plausible theoretical framework to explain the North Korean contemporary military strategy with a reminder that the nature and logic of war are fixed in the socially constructed state.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.127-135
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• 2017

Today, Kim Jong-un, the third-hereditary regime in North Korea, is committing Nuclear Provocation more aggressively than the past when Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il dominated. Past South Korea government had suggested plans to restrain the provocation from North Korea and bring stabilization in the Korean Peninsula. However, consequentially it was limited to the primary role of the President. When President Trump takes over the government in February 2017, it has attracted the expectation about the issues occurred on the Korean Peninsula due to the pledge that he promised during the presidential election and his govern style. However, various speeches about the Korean Peninsula that he spoke recently made situations depressed about what South Korean currently encounters. Furthermore, previous regime in North Korea has laid the foundation for Kim Jong-un to be obsessed more on the nuclear and missile which has led him to provoke more imprudently by highlighting the light weight, advanced, and various kinds of nuclear and missiles. Thus, we would like to propose counter measures in order for South Korean government to handle and solve the issues that they encounters by themselves based on North Korea's Nuclear Provocation instead of relying on other countries to get involved and help.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.518-520
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• 2014

Radar Cross Section(RCS) is very important factor to detect target by radar. Even if the same target, RCS value is significantly different according to the direction facing the radar. Therefore, it is advantageous to place the radar, where RCS is larger to increase the probability of detecting a target with a radar. North Korean ballistic missiles are major threat to our security, ballistic missiles should be detected early and traced for ballistic missile defense. In this paper, it is analyzed that ballistic missile's RCS characteristics and trajectory and proposed a way of radar deployment to improve the detection probability of ballistic missile.