• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.425-441
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• 2013

This study investigates the projections of water cycle, budget and river discharge over land in the world at the end of twenty-first century simulated by atmosphere-ocean climate model of Hadley Centre (HadGEM2-AO) and total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP) based on the RCP scenario. Firstly, to validate the HadGEM2-AO hydrology, the surface water states were evaluated for the present period using precipitation, evaporation, runoff and river discharge. Although this model underestimates the annual precipitation about 0.4 mm $mon^{-1}$, evaporation 3.7 mm $mon^{-1}$, total runoff 1.6 mm $mon^{-1}$ and river discharge 8.6% than observation and reanalysis data, it has good water balance in terms of inflow and outflow at surface. In other words, it indicates the -0.3 mm $mon^{-1}$ of water storage (P-E-R) compared with ERA40 showing -2.4 mm $mon^{-1}$ for the present hydrological climate. At the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation may decrease in heavy rainfall region, such as northern part of South America, central Africa and eastern of North America, but for increase over the Tropical Western Pacific and East Asian region. Also it can generally increase in high latitudes inland of the Northern Hemisphere. Spatial patterns of annual evaporation and runoff are similar to that of precipitation. And river discharge tends to increase over all continents except for South America including Amazon Basin, due to increased runoff. Overall, HadGEM2-AO prospects that water budget for the future will globally have negative signal (-8.0~-0.3% of change rate) in all RCP scenarios indicating drier phase than the present climate over land.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.31-43
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• 2017

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China.

• Journal of National Security and Military Science
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• s.13
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• pp.687-738
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• 2016

To prepare for the complicated international relationship regarding Korean Peninsula after reunification, this thesis started off with the awareness that Unified Korea should build its international posture and national security at an early stage by determining its appropriate military strength for independent defense and military strategies that Unified Korea should aim. The main theme of this thesis is 'The research on appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military'. To derive appropriate military strength of Unified Korea, this research focuses on conflict scenario and relative balance strategy based on potential threats posed by neighboring countries, and this is the part that differentiates this research from other researches. First of all, the main objective of the research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to secure defense sufficiency. For this, this research will decide efficient military strategy that Unified Korea should aim. Than by presuming the most possible military conflict scenario, this research will judge the most appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to overcome the dispute. Second, after deciding appropriate military strength, this research will suggest how to operate presumed military strength in each armed force. The result of this thesis is as in the following. First, Unified Korea should aim 'relative balance strategy'. 'Relative balance strategy' is a military strategy which Unified Korea can independently secure defense sufficiency by maintaining relative balance when conflicts occur between neighboring countries. This strategy deters conflicts in advance by relative balance of power in certain time and place. Even if conflict occurs inevitably, this strategy secures initiative. Second, when analyzing neighboring countries interest and strategic environment after unification, the possibility of all-out war will be low in the Korean Peninsula because no other nation wants the Korean Peninsula to be subordinated to one single country. Therefore appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military would be enough when Unified Korea can achieve relative balance in regional war or limited war. Third, Northeast Asia is a region where economic power and military strength is concentrated. Despite increasing mutual cooperation in the region, conflicts and competition to expand each countries influence is inherent. Japan is constantly enhancing their military strength as they aim for normal statehood. China is modernizing their military strength as they aspire to become global central nation. Russia is also enhancing their military strength in order to hold on to their past glory of Soviet Union as a world power. As a result, both in quality and quantity, the gap between military strength of Unified Korea and each neighboring countries is enlarged at an alarming rate. Especially in the field of air-sea power, arms race is occurring between each nation. Therefore Unified Korea should be equipped with appropriate military strength in order to achieve relative balance with each threats posed by neighboring countries. Fourth, the most possible conflicts between Unified Korea and neighboring countries could be summarized into four, which are Dokdo territorial dispute with Japan, Leodo jurisdictional dispute with China, territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korea Peninsula with China and disputes regarding marine resources and sea routes with Russia. Based on those conflict scenarios, appropriate military strength for Unified Korea is as in the following. When conflict occurs with Japan regarding Dokdo, Japan is expected to put JMSDF Escort Flotilla 3, one out of four of its Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Escort Fleet, which is based in Maizuru and JMSDF Maizuru District. To counterbalance this military strength, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of jurisdictional conflict with China concerning Leodo, China is expected to dispatch its North Sea fleet, one out of three of its naval fleet, which is in charge of the Yellow Sea. To response to this military action, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korean Peninsula with China, it is estimated that out of seven Military Region troops, China will dispatch two Military Region troops, including three Army Groups from Shenyang Military Region, where it faces boarder with the Korean Peninsula. To handle with this military strength, Unified Korea needs six corps size ground force strength, including three corps of ground forces, two operational reserve corps(maneuver corps), and one strategic reserve corps(maneuver corps). When conflict occurs with Russia regarding marine resources and sea routes, Russia is expected to send a warfare group of a size that includes two destroyers, which is part of the Pacific Fleet. In order to balance this strength, Unified Korea naval power requires one warfare group including two destroyers. Fifth, management direction for the Unified Korean military is as in the following. Regarding the ground force management, it would be most efficient to deploy troops in the border area with china for regional and counter-amphibious defense. For the defense except the border line with china, the most efficient form of force management would be maintaining strategic reserve corps. The naval force should achieve relative balance with neighboring countries when there is maritime dispute and build 'task fleet' which can independently handle long-range maritime mission. Of the three 'task fleet', one task fleet should be deployed at Jeju base to prepare for Dokdo territorial dispute and Leodo jurisdictional dispute. Also in case of regional conflict with china, one task fleet should be positioned at Yellow Sea and for regional conflict with Japan and Russia, one task fleet should be deployed at East Sea. Realistically, Unified Korea cannot possess an air force equal to neither Japan nor China in quantity. Therefore, although Unified Korea's air force might be inferior in quantity, they should possess the systematic level which Japan or China has. For this Unified Korea should build air base in island areas like Jeju Island or Ullenong Island to increase combat radius. Also to block off infiltration of enemy attack plane, air force needs to build and manage air bases near coastal areas. For landing operation forces, Marine Corps should be managed in the size of two divisions. For island defense force, which is in charge of Jeju Island, Ulleung Island, Dokdo Island and five northwestern boarder island defenses, it should be in the size of one brigade. Also for standing international peace keeping operation, it requires one brigade. Therefore Marine Corps should be organized into three divisions. The result of the research yields a few policy implications when building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea. First, Unified Korea requires lower number of ground troops compared to that of current ROK(Republic of Korea) force. Second, air-sea forces should be drastically reinforced. Third, appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military should be based on current ROK military system. Forth, building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea should start from today, not after reunification. Because of this, South Korea should build a military power that can simultaneously prepare for current North Korea's provocations and future threats from neighboring countries after reunification. The core of this research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to realize relative balance that will ensure defense sufficiency from neighboring countries threats. In other words, this research should precisely be aware of threats posed by neighboring countries and decide minimum level of military strength that could realize relative balance in conflict situation. Moreover this research will show the path for building appropriate military strength in each armed force.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.133-145
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• 2010

This study examined the characteristics of tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) in 2009. Twenty-two TCs formed in 2009, which is slightly below normal(1979~2009 average: 25.8) and most of these occurred during the months of July to October. Most TCs in 2009 was formed over the northern Philippines and the eastern part of the WNP and they moved towards the South China Sea and the east of Japan, resulting in less TC affecting the East China Sea and Korea. The TC activity in 2009 is modulated by the large-scale circulations induced by the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and vigorous convection activity over the WNP. As the general characteristics of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year, the difference in sea surface temperature between the central Pacific and the eastern Pacific causes an anomalous westerly winds, expanding the WNP monsoon trough farther eastward. Accordingly, TC formation has relatively increased in the east part of the WNP. Active convection activities over the subtropical western Pacific excite a Rossby wave propagating from the South China Sea to mid-latitudes, resulting in an anomalous easterly steering flow in the South China, anomalous northwesterly over the East China Sea and Korea, and anomalous southwesterly over the east of Japan. Summing up, the TCs cannot enter the East China Sea and Korean region and instead they move towards the South China Sea or south-east of Japan. There were no effects of TCs in Korea in 2009. It is anticipated that this study which analyzed unusual TC activity and large-scale circulations in 2009 would help the predictability of TC effects to increase according to climate change in the East Asia.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.70-95
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• 2013

The Tejaprabha Buddha painting, located in the Korai Museum in Kyoto, Japan, was made in 1569 when Joseon Dynasty was in his $14^{th}$ year under SeonJo's ruling, and is only one of Tejaprabha Buddha paintings from the early Chosun dynasty. With its well preserved state, the painting allows clear indications of all icons and list of names that were written, and the record region also has minimal deterioration. This Buddhist painting is a GumSeonMyoHwa which is drawn with gold lining on red hemp cloth and has a relatively small dimension of $84.8{\times}66.1cm$. With the Tejaprabha Buddha in the center, the painting has two unidentified Bodhisattvas, Navagrabha, Rahu, Keto, YiSipPalSoo (28 constellation of the eastern philosophy), SipYiGoong (12 zodiacs of the western philosophy), SamDaeYookSung, and BookDooChilSung (the Big Dipper), all of which provide resourceful materials for constellation worshipin the Joseon era. This painting has a crucial representation of the overall Tejaprabha Buddhism - a type of constellation worships - from the early Joseon dynasty. Even though the composition does seem to be affiliated with the paintings from the Koryo dynasty, there are meaningful transformations that reflect changes in content into constellation worship in Joseon dynasty. As a part of the Tejaprabha Buddha, SipIlYo has become a center of the painting, but with reduced guidance and off-centered 'Weolpe (star)', the painting deteriorates the concept of SipIlYo's composition. Furthermore, addition of Taoistic constellation beliefs, such as JaMiSung (The purple Tenuity Emperor of the North Pole), OkHwangDaeChae, and CheonHwangJae, eliminates the clear distinction between Taoistic and Buddhist constellation worships. Unlike the Chinese Tejaprabha Buddha painting, the concept of YiSipPalSoo (28 constellation of eastern philosophy) in this painting clearly reflects Korean CheonMoonDo's approach to constellation which can be applied to its uniqueness of the constellation worships. The fact that the Big Dipper and ChilWonSungKoon (Buddha of the Root Destiny Stars of the Northern and central Dipper) are simultaneously drawn can also be interpreted as the increase in importance of the constellation worship at the time as well.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.3-32
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• 2007

This age is called the age of global trade, and the World Trade Organization is a forerunner in promoting the global free trade through multilateral negotiations as the global level. On the other hand, regional economic cooperation such as North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA) is appearing, saying that promotion by WTO takes too much time. As is known to everybody, Europe is on the way of integrating member states through EU not to mention economic cooperation. Even in Asia such tendency is shown through ASEAN, Korea, China and Japan in Northeast Asia share geographical proximity, many common historical experiences, and similar cultural norms and values although they have disparities in stages of development, trade and economic policies, and financial and legal frameworks. Under the situation, efforts have been made between three countries of Korea, China and Japan for the conclusion of investment agreements including FTA. If the conclusion of the FTA between the three countries would be realized, it would promote regional trade and investment, contributing to economic growth in the Northeast Asian region. The writer in this paper reviewed the settlement of private commercial dispute including investment dispute arising from the FTA and investment agreements. The investment dispute is quite different from an ordinary commercial dispute arising from commercial transactions in view of disputing parties, applicable laws and rules, etc. Therefore it is a problem of vital importance that the parties interested in investment under the FTA as well as the relevant investment agreement should understand and cope with the settlement mechanism of investment disputes arising therefrom. The ICSID Convention provides facilities for the conciliation and arbitration of disputes between member countries and investors who qualify as nationals of other member countries. All contracting states of the ICSID Convention are required by the Convention to recognize and enforce the ICSID arbitral awards. The New York Convention(formally called "United Nations Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards") is also applicable for the enforcement of arbitral awards to be rendered under the FTA. As to applicable rules, the UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules may be required for the settlement of investment disputes under the FTA. This Rules has adopted by the internationally recognized arbitral organizations although it was developed primarily for use in ad hoc arbitration. The promotion of arbitral cooperation may be realized through agreements between arbitral institutions. Especially under the NAPTA system, a central common system was established to resolve jointly private commercial disputes arising from such free trades by the initiative of arbitral organizations among the member countries. It is called Commercial Arbitration and Mediation Center for the Americas(CAMCA), which may be a good example for the settlement promotion of the private commercial disputes between Korea and other relevant countries.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

Analyses of sedimentological and geochemical parameters from two radiocarbon-dated sediment cores (JM98-845-PC and JM98-818-PC) retrieved from the central part of Isfjorden, Svalbard, in the Arctic Sea, reveal detailed paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic histories over the last 15,000 radiocarbon years. The overconsolidated diamicton at the base of core JM98-845-PC is supposed to be a basal till deposited beneath pounding glacier that had advanced during the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum). Deglaciation of the fjord commenced after the glacial maximum, marked by the deposition of interlaminated sand and mud in the ice-proximal zone by subglacial meltwater discharge, and prevailed between 13,700 and 10,800 yr B.P. with enriched-terrigenous organic materials. A return to colder conditions occurred at around 10,800 yr B.P. with a drop in TOC content, which is probably coincident with the Younger Dryas event in the North Atlantic region. At this time, an abrupt decrease of TOC content as well as an increase in C/N ratio suggests enhanced terrigenous input due to the glacial readvance. A climatic optimum is recognized between 8,395 and 2,442 yr B.P., coinciding with 'a mid-Holocene climatic optimum' in Northern Hemisphere sites (e.g., the Laurentide Ice sheet). During this time, as the sea ice receded from the fjord, enhanced primary productivity occurred in open marine conditions, resulting in the deposition of organic-enriched pebbly mud with evidence of TOC maxima and C/N ratio minima in sediments. Fast ice also disappeared from the coast, providing the maximum of IRD (ice-rafted debris) input. Around 2,442 yr B.p. (the onset of Neoglacial), pebbly mud, characterized by a decrease in TOC content, reflects the formation of more extensive sea ice and fast ice, which might cause decreased primary productivity in the surface water, as evidenced by a decrease in TOC content. Our results provide evidence of climatic change on the Svalbard fjords that helps to refine the existence and timing of late Pleistocene and Holocene millennial-scale climatic events in the Northern Hemisphere.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.34
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• pp.169-182
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• 1997

Focusing on khotan located in the southern Silk Route which was one of the most important kingdoms in the Tarim Basin this study attempts to examine the changes of costume in Khotan by compar-ing the costumes in the painted panel showing the story of silk princess with the excavated costumes from ancient tombs. Furthermore this study attempts to inves-tigate the impacts of cultural exchange be-tween China and its western neighboring country Eastern and Western Turkestan on costume. Excavated costumes from the Shanpula ancient tomb in the region of Khotan and from ancient Niya in the esat-ern border of Khotan and discoveries from Rawak and Dandan-oilik near by Yotkan the ancient capital of Khotan are exam-ined. Basic Khotan's costume was the two piece style of tops and trousers. Over the basic costume wearing a top wear with half sleeves was popular. Skirt was worn by women. Even though there were many kinds tops were classified into the two types kaftan and tunic. Thouth Khotan maintained a association with China for a long time the style of Khotan costume had imbued to China. Top wear with half sleeves was worn frequently in Khotan. Also in China top wear with half sleeves was worn as over-wear which was called ban-xiu ban-bi bei-zi Costume style of China is covering the body profoundly and wrapping front edge toward the right. The types of chi-nese top wear with half sleeves for exam-ple round-neck·confronting front edge crossing-neck·confronting front edge tu-nic type discord with the traditional chi-nese costume style There were many cas-es that half sleeved top wear was worn as over wear in T'ang dynasty. The phenom-enon was due to the prevalence of 'ho' (foreign) and half sleeved top wear was introduced by the countries to the west of China Khotan. A round neck garment was a general type for the men of cuntries to the westof China. Also Chinese wore round neck garment since South and North Dynasty The type of Chinese round neck garment was not tunic but kaftan. From costume relics and ancient paintings the type of Khotan's round neck garment was tunic which was recorded on the Chinese histori-cal documents as " guan-tou-shan" that is tunic the type of persian costume, Even thgough the painted panel showing the sto-ry of silk princess was made in the it me when Turks was a dominion on Central Asia Khotan's costume style was not changed toward Turk's costume style and remained tunic style.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.6277-6283
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• 2012

Background: Northern Iran counts as one of the highest prevalence regions for esophageal cancer (EC) worldwide. This study was designed to assess the epidemiologic aspects of EC in north central and northwest Iran over a 10 year period. Materials and Methods: The Guilan cancer registry study (GCRS) is a population-based cancer registry study featuring retrospective (1996-2003) and prospective (2004-2005) phases. A detailed questionnaire based on WHO standards for cancer registratration was applied to gather the required information. Two trained physicians coded information using ICD-O-3 in close coordination with an expert pathologist. Results: A total of 19,936 cases of malignancy (mean age $55.4{\pm}18.0$ years, range: 1-98 years) were registered, including 1,147 cases (670 males, 447 female; mean age: $64.0{\pm}11.5$ years) of EC. In 1996 the male/female ratio among patients with EC was 1.25 which increased to 1.53 in 2005. The lower third of the esophagus still remained the most common site of tumors. The average age-standardized rate (ASR) was 6.9 and 4.1 per $10^5$ men and women, respectively. In 1996, the ASRs were 7.2 and 5.2 per $10^5$ men and women which decreased to 6.9 and 4.1 per $10^5$ in 2004-2005. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) was the most prevalent histological subtype of EC accounting over 80% of cases. Conclusions: However the prevalence of adenocarcinoma (ADC) showed an increase to 18.4%. Guilan province may be considered a relatively low incidence region for EC.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.165-175
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• 1997

This is to study the characteristics of available water resources (AWR) of the eastern coastal area in Korea. A rating curve was suggested at Yangyang water level station of the Yangyangnamdai river. Annual mean precipitation of this area is 1365.8mm. Annual mean precipitation in central and northern area of eastern coastal area is more than that of southern area because of orographic precipitation occurred by the north-easterly air flow from the East sea. By the correlation analysis of monthly rainfall depths between rainfall gauging stations it is presented that the rainfall gauging stations located in coastal region have the regional representativity, but the rainfall gauging stations located in the westward of mountains have a strong locality. AWR of eastern coastal area by the application of runoff coefficient 0.665 is 1134.5X106m3 and 28.6 percentage for total water resources. In each watershed AWR is 193.7X106m3 in the Yangyangnamdai river, 109X106m3 in the Kangnungnamdai river, and 146.0X106m3 in the Samcheokosip river. The seasonal changes of 30/3% in summer and 19.1% in water, and those of the AWR to total water resources are 86.3% in winter, 60.1% in spring, 50.1% in autumn, and 25.7% in summer. The results of this study may be used to establish the water resources planning of eastern coastal area.