• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multivariate methods

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

The effect of restricted fluid intakes in the first week of life on the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and patent ductus arteriosus in very low birth weight infants (극소저출생체중아에서 생후 첫 주의 제한적 수액투여가 기관지폐이형성증과 동맥관개존증 발생에 미치는 영향)

  • Koo, Hoe Kyoung;Choi, Eun Na;Namgung, Ran;Park, Min Soo;Park, Kook In;Lee, Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.536-542
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : We investigated the effects of restricted fluid in the first 7 days of life on the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) or patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Methods : Eighty three VLBW infants who lived more than 28 days were selected. The amount of daily maintenance fluid was determined by calculation of insensible water loss (IWL) and urine output (UO). Seventy to 80 percent of calculated amount was given to the ventilated infants. Subjects were grouped into low (<25th%), moderate (25-75th%), and high (>75th%) fluid groups for the first 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days. Chi square tests analyzed proportions of subjects with or without morbidities across fluid groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of fluid intake on BPD or PDA, controlling for factors that are significantly associated with BPD or PDA by univariate analysis. Results : Rates of BPD and PDA were not significantly associated with fluid groups on each time period. The result was the same after controlling for factors that are significantly associated with BPD or PDA by univariate analysis. For the first 3 and 7 days, fluid intakes were positively related with maximal weight loss, urine output and mechanical ventilation duration. Conclusion : In VLBW infants, when given based on needs reflected from IWL and UO versus intake, relatively low fluid intakes in the first week of life do not decrease the risk of BPD or PDA, and vice versa. We suggest that calculation of daily fluid based on IWL and UO is appropriate for VLBW infants.

Long term prognosis of patients who had a Fontan operation (폰탄 수술을 받은 환아들의 장기적 예후)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Bae, Eun-Jung;Noh, Jung-Il;Choi, Jung-Yun;Yun, Yong-Su;Kim, Wong-Hwan;Lee, Jung-Yeul;Kim, Yong-Jin
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : This study assessed the long term survival rate and long term complications of patients who had a modified Fontan operation for functionally univentricular cardiac anomaly. Methods : Between June 1986 and December 2000, 302 patients with a functional single ventricle underwent surgical interventions and were followed up until February 2006. The mean follow-up period was $8.3{\pm}5.3years$ (range 3.5-18 years). Their median age was 2.4 years at the Fontan operation. The survival rate, the incidence and the risk factor of late complications were evaluated retrospectively. Results : The verall survival rate was 91 percent at 5 years and 87 percent at 10 years. In multivariate analysis, early calendar year of operation and significant regurgitation were risk factors of death. The surviving patients showed NYHA functional class I in 82 percent, class II in 15 percent, and class III in 3 percent. Redo Fontan operations were necessary in 8.8 percent of patients at average $12.8{\pm}3.6years$ after initial Fontan operation. The most common cause of Fontan conversion was atrial arrhythmia. The incidence of thromboembolic events was 9.3% and these complications were associated with the occurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmia. Supraventricular tachycardia including atrial flutter or fibrillation were reported on the follow-up examination by 11.2 percent of survivors after $8.4{\pm}5.6years$. Atriopulmonary connection showed higher rates of late tachycardia than lateral tunnel operation. Conclusions : This study revealed that the recent survival rate of Fontan type operation was satisfactory, but the occurrence of late complications after a Fontan type operation increased with the longer survival. There is a need for strict follow up and early treatment of late complications in patients who had a Fontan operation.

The General Characteristics and Risk Factors Study According to Onset Time in Acute Stroke Patients (급성기 중풍환자의 발병시간에 따른 특성 및 위험인자 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Young;Kim, Young-Jee;Lee, Seung-Yeop;Choi, Won-Woo;Leem, Jung-Tae;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Min, In-Kyu;Park, Sung-Week;Jung, Woo-Sang;Moon, Sang-Kwan;Park, Jung-Mi;Ko, Chang-Nam;Cho, Ki-Ho;Kim, Young-Suk;Bae, Hyung-Sup
    • The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1011-1024
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    • 2008
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to assess the distribution of general characteristics and risk factors according to onset time in acute stroke patients. Methods : We studied hospitalized patients within 4 wks after the onset of stroke who were admitted to the Department of Internal Medicine at Kyunghee University Oriental Medical Hospital, Kyunghee University East-West Neo Medical Hospital, Kyungwon University Songpa Oriental Medical Hospital, Kyungwon University Incheon Oriental Medical Hospital, and Dongguk University Ilsan Oriental Medical Hospital from April 2007 to August 2008. The 24-hour day was divided into quartiles (6:00 to 12:00, 12:00 to 18:00, 18:00 to 24:00 and 24:00 to 6:00). We analyzed the general characteristics and risk factors according to onset time in acute stroke patients. Results : 468 subjects were included into the final analysis. 1. The most common time period for ischemic stroke onset was between 6:00 and 12:00. It demonstrated a 50% excess risk between 6:00 and 12:00. 2. On the demographic variables of the patients, the rate of hypertension was significantly higher from 18: 00 to 24: 00 than 24:00 to 6:00. 3. There was no significant difference of stroke type, Sasang constitution, or lifestyle between times. 4. According to the blood test, high density lipoprotein cholesterol was significantly higher at 24:00 to 6:00 and lower at 12:00 to 18:00 than other time-groups. 5. The patients diagnosed with metabolic syndrome were significantly more at 12:00 to 18:00 and fewer at 24:00 to 6:00. 6. Hypertension and coffee drinking showed close relationship with patients whose stroke occurred while awake in multivariate analysis. Conclusions : The above results showed that the overall tendency of acute stage cerebral infarction patients varied according to their onset time. These results can be utilized in the future as a basis material.

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Factors Associated with Care Burden among Family Caregivers of Terminally Ill Cancer Patients (말기암환자 가족 간병인의 간병 부담과 관련된 요인)

  • Lee, Jee Hye;Park, Hyun Kyung;Hwang, In Cheol;Kim, Hyo Min;Koh, Su-Jin;Kim, Young Sung;Lee, Yong Joo;Choi, Youn Seon;Hwang, Sun Wook;Ahn, Hong Yup
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: It is important to alleviate care burden for terminal cancer patients and their families. This study investigated the factors associated with care burden among family caregivers (FCs) of terminally ill cancer patients. Methods: We analyzed data from 289 FCs of terminal cancer patients who were admitted to palliative care units of seven medical centers in Korea. Care burden was assessed using the Korean version of Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA) scale which comprises five domains. A multivariate logistic regression model with stepwise variable selection was used to identify factors associated with care burden. Results: Diverse associating factors were identified in each CRA domain. Emotional factors had broad influence on care burden. FCs with emotional distress were more likely to experience changes to their daily routine (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.29~5.02), lack of family support (aOR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.04~4.97) and health issues (aOR, 5.44; 2.50~11.88). Family functionality clearly reflected a lack of support, and severe family dysfunction was linked to financial issues as well. FCs without religion or comorbid conditions felt more burdened. The caregiving duration and daily caregiving hours significantly predicted FCs' lifestyle changes and physical burden. FCs who were employed, had weak social support or could not visit frequently, had a low self-esteem. Conclusion: This study indicates that it is helpful to understand FCs' emotional status and family functions to assess their care burden. Thus, efforts are needed to lessen their financial burden through social support systems.

A Method to Quantify Breast MRI for Predicting Tumor Invasion in Patients with Preoperative Biopsy- Proven Ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) (유방 자기공명영상법을 이용한 수술 전 관상피내암으로 진단된 환자의 침윤성 유방암을 예측하는 정량적 분석법)

  • Ko, Myung-Su;Kim, Sung Hun;Kang, Bong Joo;Choi, Byung Gil;Song, Byung Joo;Cha, Eun Suk;Kiraly, Atilla Peter;Kim, In Seong
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • Purpose : To determine the quantitative parameters of breast MRI that predict tumor invasion in biopsy-proven DCIS. Materials and Methods: From January 2009 to March 2010, 42 MRI examinations of 41 patients with biopsy-proven DCIS were included. The quantitative parameters, which include the initial percentage enhancement ($E_1$), peak percentage enhancement ($E_{peak}$), time to peak enhancement (TTP), signal enhancement ratio (SER), arterial enhancement fraction (AEF), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value, long diameter and the volume of the lesion, were calculated as parameters that might predict invasion. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the parameters associated with invasion. Results: Out of 42 lesions, 23 lesions were confirmed to be invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) and 19 lesions were confirmed to be pure DCIS. Tumor size (p = 0.003; $6.5{\pm}3.2$ cm vs. $3.6{\pm}2.6$ cm, respectively) and SER (p = 0.036; $1.1{\pm}0.3$ vs. $0.9{\pm}0.3$, respectively) showed statistically significant high in IDC. In contrast, E1, Epeak, TTP, ADC, AEF and volume of the lesion were not statistically significant. Tumor size and SER had statistically significant associations with invasion, with an odds ratio of 1.04 and 22.93, respectively. Conclusion: Of quantitative parameters analyzed, SER and the long diameter of the lesion could be specific parameter for predicting invasion in the biopsy-proven DCIS.

Long-term Efficacy of S-1 Monotherapy or Capecitabine Plus Oxaliplatin as Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Patients with Stage II or III Gastric Cancer after Curative Gastrectomy: a Propensity Score-Matched Multicenter Cohort Study

  • Lee, Chang Min;Yoo, Moon-Won;Son, Young-Gil;Oh, Sung Jin;Kim, Jong-Han;Kim, Hyoung-Il;Park, Joong-Min;Hur, Hoon;Jee, Ye Seob;Hwang, Sun-Hwi;Jin, Sung-Ho;Lee, Sang Eok;Park, Ji-Ho;Seo, Kyung Won;Park, Sungsoo;Kim, Chang Hyun;Jeong, In Ho;Lee, Han Hong;Choi, Sung Il;Lee, Sang-Il;Kim, Chan Young;Kim, In-Hwan;Son, Myoung-Won;Pak, Kyung Ho;Kim, Sungsoo;Lee, Moon-Soo;Min, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.152-164
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: To compare long-term disease-free survival (DFS) between patients receiving tegafur/gimeracil/oteracil (S-1) or capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (CAPOX) adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) for gastric cancer (GC). Materials and Methods: This retrospective multicenter observational study enrolled 983 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with consecutive AC with S-1 or CAPOX for stage II or III GC at 27 hospitals in Korea between February 2012 and December 2013. We conducted propensity score matching to reduce selection bias. Long-term oncologic outcomes, including DFS rate over 5 years (over-5yr DFS), were analyzed postoperatively. Results: The median and longest follow-up period were 59.0 and 87.6 months, respectively. DFS rate did not differ between patients who received S-1 and CAPOX for pathologic stage II (P=0.677) and stage III (P=0.899) GC. Moreover, hazard ratio (HR) for recurrence did not differ significantly between S-1 and CAPOX (reference) in stage II (HR, 1.846; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.693-4.919; P=0.220) and stage III (HR, 0.942; 95% CI, 0.664-1.337; P=0.738) GC. After adjustment for significance in multivariate analysis, pT (4 vs. 1) (HR, 11.667; 95% CI, 1.595-85.351; P=0.016), pN stage (0 vs. 3) (HR, 2.788; 95% CI, 1.502-5.174; P=0.001), and completion of planned chemotherapy (HR, 2.213; 95% CI, 1.618-3.028; P<0.001) were determined as independent prognostic factors for DFS. Conclusions: S-1 and CAPOX AC regimens did not show significant difference in over-5yr DFS after curative gastrectomy in patients with stage II or III GC. The pT, pN stage, and completion of planned chemotherapy were prognostic factors for GC recurrence.

The Relationship between Socioeconomic Status and Gastric Cancer Screening in the Population of a Metropolitan Area (일 광역단위에서의 사회경제적 수준과 위암 수검률과의 관련성)

  • Oh, Hyun-Suk;Kim, Sun A;Kweon, Sun-Seog;Rhee, Jung-Ae;Ryu, So-Yeon;Shin, Min-Ho
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.174-181
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: Socioeconomic status plays an important role in health care and disease prevention. This study aimed to examine the association between socioeconomic status, measured by education levels and household income, and gastric cancer screening. Methods: A total of 21,220 community-dwelling adults aged 40 to 69 years within a defined geographic area participated in a community health survey in 2009 and 2010. The survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire by trained investigators who visited the subjects' households directly. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between self-reported participation in gastric cancer screening and socioeconomic variables (education and household income). Results: The gastric cancer screening rate was 52.1% for subjects in their forties, 63.7% for those in their fifties, and 67.3% for those in their sixties. In multivariate analysis, higher education and income levels were associated with higher rates of gastric cancer screening (high school vs. elementary school: odds ratio [OR] 1.41, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.26-1.58; highest income quartile vs. lowest income quartile: OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.44-1.84). The gradient between income and screening rate was more pronounced in the population aged 40 to 49 years than in the other age groups. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that lower socioeconomic status is associated with decreased participation in gastric cancer screening. Our findings suggest that the screening program should be focused on low-income and less-educated populations, especially among younger adults, to reduce health disparities.

Clinical implication of Dendritic Cell Infiltration in Cervical Tuberculous Lymphadenitis (결핵성 경부 림프절염에서 수지상돌기세포의 침윤과 임상양상의 연관성)

  • Jung, Jae Woo;Lee, Young Woo;Choi, Jae Cheol;Yoo, Seung Min;Lee, Hwa Yeon;Lim, Seoung Young;Shin, Jong Wook;Kim, Jae Yoel;Park, In Whn;Kim, Mi Kyung;Choi, Byoung Whui
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.5
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    • pp.523-531
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    • 2006
  • Background : Cervical tuberculous lymphadenopathy is a very common disease with a similar incidence to pulmonary tuberculosis. Dendritic cells play a role of initial antigen presentation of this illness. Nevertheless, the precise role of these antigen-presenting cells according to the clinical features in unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical implication of dendritic cell infiltration in the cervical lymph nodes. Methods : A review of the clinical characteristics was carried out retrospectively based on the clinical records and radiography. Immunohistochemical staining was performed on the available histology specimens of 72 cases using the S-100b polyclonal antibody for dendritic cells. The number of dendritic cells with tuberculous granuloma were determined. A $X^2$ test, unpaired T test and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed. Results : Thirty percent of subjects had previous or concurrent pulmonary TB. Twenty one percent of cases showed a positive reaction on the AFB stain. Within a granuloma, the number of infiltrated dendritic cells was $113.0{\pm}7.0$. The incidence of fever and cough decreased with increasing infiltration of dendritic cells Multivariate regression analysis showed that the infiltration of dendritic cells could significantly contribute to fever. Conclusion : Overall, dendritic cells can control a Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and modulate the immune response, as well as resolve the clinical manifestations of TB lymphadenopathy.

Adjuvant Postoperative Radiation Therapy for Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부암의 수술 후 방사선치료)

  • Lee Kyung-Ja;Moon Hye Seong;Kim Seung Cheol;Kim Chong Il;Ahn Jung Ja
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: This study was undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of postoperative radiotherapy, and to investigate the prognostic factors for FIGO stages IB-IIB cervical cancer patients who were treated with simple hysterectomy, or who had high-risk factors following radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection. Materials and Methods: Between March 1986 and December 1998, 58 patients, with FIGO stages IB-IIB cervical cancer were included in this study. The indications for postoperative radiation therapy were based on the pathological findings, including lymph node metastasis, positive surgical margin, parametrial extension, lymphovascular invasion, invasion of more than half the cervical stroma, uterine extension and the incidental finding of cervix cancer fellowing simple hysterectomy. All patients received external pelvic radiotherapy, and 5 patients, received an additional intracavitary radiation therapy. The radiation dose from the external beam to the whole pelvis was $40\~50$ Gy. Vagina cuff Irradiation was peformed, after completion of the external beam irradiation, at a low-dose rate of Cs-137, with the total dose of $4488\~4932$ chy (median: 4500 chy) at 5 mm depth from the vagina surface. The median follow-up period was 44 months ($15\~108$ months). Results: The 5-yr actuarial local control rate, distant free survival and disease-free survival rate were $98\%,\;95\%\;and\;94\%$, respectively. A univariate analysis of the clinical and pathological parameters revealed that the clinical stage (p=0.0145), status of vaginal resection margin (p=0.0002) and parametrial extension (p=0.0001) affected the disease-free survival. From a multivariate analysis, only a parametrial extension independently influenced the disease-free survival. Five patients ($9\%$) experienced Grade 2 late treatment-related complications, such as radiation proctitis (1 patient), cystitis (3 patients) and lymphedema of the leg (1 patient). No patient had grade 3 or 4 complications. Conclusion: Our results indicate that postoperative radiation therapy can achieve good local control and survival rates for patients with stages IB-IIB cervical cancer, treated with a simple hysterectomy, as well as for those treated with a radical hysterectomy, and with unfavorable pathological findings. The prognostic factor for disease-free survival was invasion of the parametrium. The prognosic factor identified in this study for treatment failure can be used as a selection criterion for the combined treatment of radiation and che motherapy.