• 상하수도학회지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.601-607
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• 2007

In order to maintain constant residual chlorine in sedimentation basin, It is necessary to develop real time prediction model of residual chlorine considering water treatment plant data such as water qualities, weather, and plant operation conditions. Based on the operation data acquired from K water treatment plant, prediction models of residual chlorine in sediment basin were accomplished. The input parameters applied in the models were water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity, flow rate, alkalinity and pre-chlorination dosage. The multiple regression models were established with linear and non-linear model with 5,448 data set. The corelation coefficient (R) for the linear and non-linear model were 0.39 and 0.374, respectively. It shows low correlation coefficient, that is, these multiple regression models can not represent the residual chlorine with the input parameters which varies independently with time changes related to weather condition. Artificial neural network models are applied with three different conditions. Input parameters are consisted of water quality data observed in water treatment process based on the structure of auto-regressive model type, considering a time lag. The artificial neural network models have better ability to predict residual chlorine at sediment basin than conventional linear and nonlinear multi-regression models. The determination coefficients of each model in verification process were shown as 0.742, 0.754, and 0.869, respectively. Consequently, comparing the results of each model, neural network can simulate the residual chlorine in sedimentation basin better than mathematical regression models in terms of prediction performance. This results are expected to contribute into automation control of water treatment processes.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.611-622
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• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.113-128
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• 2022

Water consumption is strongly affected by numerous factors, such as population, climatic, geographic, and socio-economic factors. Therefore, the implementation of a reliable predictive model of water consumption pattern is challenging task. This study investigates the performance of predictive models based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support vector regression (SVR). To understand the significant factors affecting water consumption, the stepwise regression (SW) procedure is used in MLR to obtain suitable variables. Then, this study also implements three predictive models based on these significant variables (e.g., SWMLR, SWMLP, and SWSVR). Annual data of water consumption in Thailand during 2006 - 2015 were compiled and categorized by provinces and distributors. By comparing the predictive performance of models with all variables, the results demonstrate that the MLP models outperformed the MLR and SVR models. As compared to the models with selected variables, the predictive capability of SWMLP was superior to SWMLR and SWSVR. Therefore, the SWMLP still provided satisfactory results with the minimum number of explanatory variables which in turn reduced the computation time and other resources required while performing the predictive task. It can be concluded that the MLP exhibited the best result and can be utilized as a reliable water demand predictive model for both of all variables and selected variables cases. These findings support important implications and serve as a feasible water consumption predictive model and can be used for water resources management to produce sufficient tap water to meet the demand in each province of Thailand.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.138-145
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• 2016

This paper proposes an improved tabu search method for subset selection in multiple linear regression models. Variable selection is a vital combinatorial optimization problem in multivariate statistics. The selection of the optimal subset of variables is necessary in order to reliably construct a multiple linear regression model. Its applications widely range from machine learning, timeseries prediction, and multi-class classification to noise detection. Since this problem has NP-complete nature, it becomes more difficult to find the optimal solution as the number of variables increases. Two typical metaheuristic methods have been developed to tackle the problem: the tabu search algorithm and hybrid genetic and simulated annealing algorithm. However, these two methods have shortcomings. The tabu search method requires a large amount of computing time, and the hybrid algorithm produces a less accurate solution. To overcome the shortcomings of these methods, we propose an improved tabu search algorithm to reduce moves of the neighborhood and to adopt an effective move search strategy. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, comparative studies are performed on small literature data sets and on large simulation data sets. Computational results show that the proposed method outperforms two metaheuristic methods in terms of the computing time and solution quality.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.45-50
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• 2012

본 논문은 CNC 선반에서 Al-6061의 보링 선삭 후 진원도 오차 분석에 관한 것이다. 실험은 실험계획법을 기초로 하여 신호대 잡음비, 분산분석을 사용하여 진원도 오차에 관한 파라미터의 영향을 연구하였다. 그리고 다중선형회귀분석은 진원도 오차의 예측 가능한 수학적 모델을 유도하기 위해 적용되었다. 선삭 파라미터인 고정압, 벽두께, 절삭깊이 그리고 이송속도는 논문의 목적달성을 위해 적용되었고 그 결과를 고찰하였다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권7호
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• pp.3039-3056
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• 2020

Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제43권7호
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• pp.601-608
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• 2015

유연날개의 공력 및 구조 설계값을 설계 변수로 하여 정적 상태에서의 정적 공탄성해석 및 최적화를 수행하였다. 정적 공탄성해석과 최적화를 위해 상용 해석소프트웨어들이 연계된 강건한 다분야 최적설계 시스템을 개발하였다. 최적화 설계변수로는 가로세로비, 테이퍼비, 후퇴각과 날개 위아래 스킨 두께를 설정하였다. 전역적 다목적 최적화를 위해 실수기반 적응영역 다목적 유전자 알고리즘을 적용하였으며 계산시간을 줄이기 위해 메타모델로 서포트벡터회귀 기법을 적용하였다. 유연날개에 대한 파레토 결과 분석을 통해 최대 항속시간과 최소 중량에 대한 최적 결과를 확인하였다.

• 한국게임학회 논문지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2015

정보통신기술의 발달로 빅데이터 분석을 통해 사람들 일상의 기록과 잠재적 요구까지 통찰할 수 있게 되었으며, 우리의 일상 속에서 방대한 정보를 실시간으로 도출하고 있다. 여러 산업이나 기업에서 이미 빅데이터와 결합시켜 비즈니스 등 다양한 분야에 활용하고 있지만 게임 산업에서의 빅데이터 활용은 아직까지 미흡한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 데이터 마이닝을 기법을 적용하여 전략시뮬레이션 게임 데이터를 분석하였다. 전략시뮬레이션 게임 데이터를 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-class SVM, Linear Regression 분석 기법을 적용하여 게임 유저의 게임수준에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 게임수준을 예측하는데 있어 가장 우수한 성능을 보인 기법과 변수들을 도출하여 게임 디자인과 사용성을 증대시키기 위한 제안을 하고자 한다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제28권12호
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• pp.103-107
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• 2014

Together with housings, general buildings and industrial facilities, multi-purpose complexes are equipped with various and special equipment. They are often used by many unspecified people, which causes an increase in annual electricity consumption. Because of this, a great amount of money has been spent for electric charge, far more in excess of the budget, so a reasonable electricity rate needs to be estimated. In this study, we surveyed the power consumption, average power use, and annual electricity bill of multi-purpose complexes in the past five years. To see the general tendency of the survey, we conducted a statistical analysis with such parameters as average, maximum, and minimum values. Through regression analysis, we could see the trend of the survey in linear way. Based on the survey, we have developed an electric-rate calculation program to estimate the next year's budget on electricity.

• 한국빅데이터학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.201-222
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• 2023

온라인 플랫폼을 통한 전자상거래 활성화에 따라 수많은 중소 판매상들은 수익성 향상을 위해 다양한 노력을 기울이고 있다. 이를 위해서는 프로모션이나 이벤트의 범위와 할인 수준, 품목 등에 대한 전략적 의사결정이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구는 중소 전자상거래 판매상들이 효과적인 프로모션 전략을 수립하기 위한 의사결정을 지원하기 위한 도구를 개발하고자 한다. 프로모션의 시행 여부를 판단하기 위해서는 프로모션에 의한 매출 증대 수준을 예측할 수 있어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 기계학습기법 중 MLP(Multi Layer Perceptron), Gradient Boosting Regression, Random Forest, Linear Regression 모델을 통해 프로모션 시행 후의 매출변화를 예측하기 위한 모델을 개발하였다. 프로모션 데이터가 가진 복잡성과 품목의 특성이 뚜렷한 영향력을 가지는 것으로 확인되었으며, 여러 기법 중 Random Forest 모델과 MLP 모델이 가장 성능이 좋은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 개발된 방법을 통해 중소 전자상거래 판매상이 시장 변화에 능동적으로 대응하고, 데이터 기반 의사결정을 지원할 수 있을 것이다.