• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi Effect

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A Study on the Continuous Utilization of Japan's Cultural Heritage Through the Cases of Silk Heritage, World Heritage, and the Japan Heritage Project in Gunma Prefecture (일본 문화유산의 연속적 활용에 관한 연구 - '군마 실크유산'과 세계유산, 일본유산 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Chungsun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.190-211
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    • 2019
  • In March 2015, The Agency for Cultural Affairs of Japan implemented a project called "Japan Heritage," which aims to promote the unique narratives of cultural properties of the region by branding the locality for revitalization in preparation for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics. This bottom-up approach of cultural policy has been called a "Cool Japan Strategy of Cultural Heritage" in the 21st century, which effectively incorporates local cultural heritage and tourism. However, although a total of 67 Japan Heritage projects have been designated as of December 2018, almost none has been introduced in the academic forum in Korea. On the basis of this background and a lack of academic awareness in Korea on Japan's recent cultural policies, this research aims to focus on the three cases of Gunma Prefecture implemented in local, global, and glocal aspects. To specify, the cases are the "Gunma Silk Heritage" project, implemented in 2011, the "Tomioka Silk Mill and Related Sites" project that was included on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 2014, and "The Best Wife in the World - Silk Story of Gunma," case certified as the first project of "Japan Heritage" launched in 2015. Based on the questionnaire method conducted with the World Heritage Registration Promotion Division in Gunma Prefectural Government, as well as a literature view, the research revealed that the consecutive implementation of a series of cultural heritage projects in Gunma is not coincidental, but rather a strategy aiming to create a synergism where each project complements the others. Moreover, this paper demonstrates that Gunma Prefecture has been utilizing the local silk industry as a tangible and intangible cultural resource in multi-layered heritage projects, resulting in a "spiral synergy effect" and a "chain of the recognition process." In conclusion, it illustrates the recent trend of utilizing cultural heritage in the context of the Cool Japan strategy, which seeks to move away from the administration of maintaining the status quo cultural heritage protection to a proactive one with greater potential growth. This research may thus provide meaningful insight into the utilization of domestic historical and cultural resources as well as related policy-making, in that it will ultimately promote the chain effect of linking the multiple heritage policies and projects at the local, global, and glocal levels.

Effect of substrate composition on the growth of roses and hydrangeas in artificial ground (인공지반에서 식재지반의 구성이 장미와 수국의 생장에 미치는 영향)

  • You, Soojin;Han, Seung Won;Kim, Kwang Jin;Jeong, Na Ra;Yun, Ji Hye
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.658-666
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to select a suitable planting substrate for multilayered plantings in an apartment landscape space. The experiment was conducted between May to October 2019, at the National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science. Planting substrate was prepared in six repetitions of eight treatment zones using mulching material, horticultural soil, bottom ash, and subgrade soil. Rosa hybrid 'Barkarole' and Hydrangea macrophylla 'Nikko Blue' were selected as the experimental plants. We investigated the monthly variation and effect of the substrate type on the growth (plant height, number of branches, leaf length, leaf width, and plant area of the substrates) of the plants. In R. hybrid 'Barkarole' grown in 20 cm of horticultural soil and 10 cm of bottom ash, the plants were taller(102.2±5.8 cm), had more branches (5.5±0.6 each), longer leaves (10.9±1.0 cm), and greater leaf width (6.2±0.5 cm) and plant area (4077.1±416.6 cm2)(p<0.05). H. macrophylla 'Nikko Blue' showed the best growth from 3cm of mulching, 20cm of horticultural topsoil, and 10cm of bottom ash, which resulted in taller plants (43.6±2.1 cm), more branches (4.9±0.8 each), longer leaves (7.2±0.5 cm), and greater leaf width(4.3±0.3 cm) and plant area (344.5±43.2 cm2). Through this study, it was possible to propose an optimal planting substrate for shrubs for multi-layered landscaping.

Multi-Institute, Single Group, Prospective Observational Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Mucomyst® in Relieving Symptoms of Globus Pharyngeus Refractory to Proton Pump Inhibitor (양성자펌프억제제에 반응하지 않는 인두이물감 환자에서 "뮤코미스트Mucomyst®" 객담제거 및 상기도 염증치료를 통한 증상개선효과 평가 다기관, 단일군, 전향적 관찰 연구)

  • Park, Hannah;Park, Il-Seok;Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Seung-Won;Lee, Sang Joon;Lee, Byung-Joo;Cheon, Yong-Il;Park, Jun-Ook;Oh, Kyoung Ho;Shin, Yoo Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives Globus pharyngeus is one of the most common symptoms of patients visiting otorhinolaryngology out-patient clinic, and usually long-lasting, difficult to treat, and frequently recurrent. Mucomyst®, N-acetyl cysteine is an inhalation agent mainly used for mucolysis and reducing inflammation in airway via antioxidative effect. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of inhaled Mucomyst® treatment in patients with globus pharyngeus refractory to proton pump inhibitor (PPI). Materials and Method We prospectively evaluated the efficacy of Mucomyst® in relieving symptoms of globus pharyngeus refractory to PPI in nine medical centers. Three hundred and three patients enrolled and finally 229 patients finished the inhaled Mucomyst® therapy for 8 weeks. We analyzed the change of Reflux Symptom Index (RSI), Reflux Finding Score (RFS), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for globus, and Globus Pharyngeus Symptom Scale (GPS) after use of Mucomyst® for 4 and 8 weeks. Results The GPS, RSI, RFS, and VAS score significantly decreased serially in patients who finished 8 week-inhalation treatment. The GPS improvement gap was significantly correlated with initial GPS (p<0.001) in multiple regression analysis. Conclusion Inhaled Mucomyst® therapy was effective for the reduction of both subjective and objective findings in refractory globus patients. This study might suggest new treatment option for patients with globus. However, further thorough studies would be needed to assess the real effect of inhaled Mucomyst® treatment as a standard treatment for globus.

Factors Influencing the Social and Economic Performance of High-Tech Social Ventures (하이테크 소셜벤처의 사회적·경제적성과에 미치는 영향요인)

  • Kim, Hyeong Min;Kim, Jin Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.121-137
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present the necessary success factors and strategies for high-tech social ventures and stakeholders in the related ecosystem by empirically identifying factors that affect their sustainable performance. Based on prior research, the dimensions of three performance factors were presented: core technology competency, core business competency, and social mission orientation. Then, such sub-dimensions such as technology innovation orientation, R&D capability, business model, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were derived. For empirical analysis, a survey was conducted on domestic high-tech social ventures, and the significance of the hypothesis was tested through PLS-structural equation analysis of the collected 243 valid data. As a result, it was found that the technology innovation orientation was embedded as an abstract organizational and cultural characteristic in the high-tech social venture, which is a research sample, and thus did not significantly affect the dependent variable. In other words, aiming for the latest cutting-edge technology alone cannot affect performance, and it is a result of proving the need for substantial influencing factors that can strengthen it. On the other hand, the business model had a significant effect only on social performance, which is presumed to be the limitation of measurement tools developed for social enterprises, and the results of additional multi-group analysis to determine the cause also supported the basis for this estimation. Excluding the previous two performance factors, R&D competency, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were all found to have a significant positive (+) effect on social and economic performance. This study laid a foundation for related research by identifying high-tech social ventures emerging in the ecosystem of a social economy and expanded empirical research models related to the performance of existing social enterprises and social ventures. However, in the research method or process, there were limitations such as factor derivation or verification for balance of dual performance, subjective measurement method, and sample representativeness. It is expected that more in-depth follow-up studies will continue by supplementing future limitations and designing improved research models.

The Effect of Brand Extension of Private Label on Consumer Attitude - a focus on the moderating effect of the perceived fit difference between parent brands and an extended brand - (PL의 브랜드확장이 소비자태도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 모브랜드 적합도 인식 차이의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jong-Keun;Kim, Hyang-Mi;Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2011
  • Introduction: Sales of private labels(PU have been growing m recent years. Globally, PLs have already achieved 20% share, although between 25 and 50% share in most of the European markets(AC. Nielson, 2005). These products are aimed to have comparable quality and prices as national brand(NB) products and have been continuously eroding manufacturer's national brand market share. Stores have also started introducing premium PLs that are of higher-quality and more reasonably priced compared to NBs. Worldwide, many retailers already have a multiple-tier private label architecture. Consumers as a consequence are now able to have a more diverse brand choice in store than ever before. Since premium PLs are priced higher than regular PLs and even, in some cases, above NBs, stores can expect to generate higher profits. Brand extensions and private label have been extensively studied in the marketing field. However, less attention has been paid to the private label extension. Therefore, this research focuses on private label extension using the Multi-Attribute Attitude Model(Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975). Especially there are few studies that consider the hierarchical effect of the PL's two parent brands: store brand and the original PL. We assume that the attitude toward each of the two parent brands affects the attitude towards the extended PL. The influence from each parent brand toward extended PL will vary according to the perceived fit between each parent brand and the extended PL. This research focuses on how these two parent brands act as reference points to one another in the consumers' choice consideration. Specifically we seek to understand how store image and attitude towards original PL affect consumer perceptions of extended premium PL. How consumers perceive extended premium PLs could provide strategic suggestions for retailer managers with specific suggestions on whether it is more effective: to position extended premium PL similarly or dissimilarly to original PL especially on the quality dimension and congruency with store image. There is an extensive body of research on branding and brand extensions (e.g. Aaker and Keller, 1990) and more recently on PLs(e.g. Kumar and Steenkamp, 2007). However there are no studies to date that look at the upgrading and influence of original PLs and attitude towards store on the premium PL extension. This research wishes to make a contribution to this gap using the perceived fit difference between parent brands and extended premium PL as the context. In order to meet the above objectives, we investigate which factors heighten consumers' positive attitude toward premium PL extension. Research Model and Hypotheses: When considering the attitude towards the premium PL extension, we expect four factors to have an influence: attitude towards store; attitude towards original PL; perceived congruity between the store image and the premium PL; perceived similarity between the original PL and the premium PL. We expect that all these factors have an influence on consumer attitude towards premium PL extension. Figure 1 gives the research model and hypotheses. Method: Data were collected by an intercept survey conducted on consumers at discount stores. 403 survey responses were attained (total 59.8% female, across all age ranges). Respondents were asked to respond to a series of Questions measured on 7 point likert-type scales. The survey consisted of Questions that measured: the trust towards store and the original PL; the satisfaction towards store and the original PL; the attitudes towards store, the original PL, and the extended premium PL; the perceived similarity of the original PL and the extended premium PL; the perceived congruity between the store image and the extended premium PL. Product images with specific explanations of the features of premium PL, regular PL and NB we reused as the stimuli for the Question response. We developed scales to measure the research constructs. Cronbach's alphaw as measured each construct with the reliability for all constructs exceeding the .70 standard(Nunnally, 1978). Results: To test the hypotheses, path analysis was conducted using LISREL 8.30. The path analysis for verification of the model produced satisfactory results. The validity index shows acceptable results(${\chi}^2=427.00$(P=0.00), GFI= .90, AGFI= .87, NFI= .91, RMSEA= .062, RMR= .047). With the increasing retailer use of premium PLBs, the intention of this research was to examine how consumers use original PL and store image as reference points as to the attitude towards premium PL extension. Results(see table 1 & 2) show that the attitude of each parent brand (attitudes toward store and original pL) influences the attitude towards extended PL and their perceived fit moderates these influences. Attitude toward the extended PL was influenced by the relative level of perceived fit. Discussion of results and future direction: These results suggest that the future strategy for the PL extension needs to consider that positive parent brand attitude is more strongly associated with the attitude toward PL extensions. Specifically, to improve attitude towards PL extension, building and maintaining positive attitude towards original PL is necessary. Positioning premium PL congruently to store image is also important for positive attitude. In order to improve this research, the following alternatives should also be considered. To improve the research model's predictive power, more diverse products should be included in study. Other attributes of product should also be included such as design, brand name since we only considered trust and satisfaction as factors to build consumer attitudes.

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New Insights on Mobile Location-based Services(LBS): Leading Factors to the Use of Services and Privacy Paradox (모바일 위치기반서비스(LBS) 관련한 새로운 견해: 서비스사용으로 이끄는 요인들과 사생활염려의 모순)

  • Cheon, Eunyoung;Park, Yong-Tae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2017
  • As Internet usage is becoming more common worldwide and smartphone become necessity in daily life, technologies and applications related to mobile Internet are developing rapidly. The results of the Internet usage patterns of consumers around the world imply that there are many potential new business opportunities for mobile Internet technologies and applications. The location-based service (LBS) is a service based on the location information of the mobile device. LBS has recently gotten much attention among many mobile applications and various LBSs are rapidly developing in numerous categories. However, even with the development of LBS related technologies and services, there is still a lack of empirical research on the intention to use LBS. The application of previous researches is limited because they focused on the effect of one particular factor and had not shown the direct relationship on the intention to use LBS. Therefore, this study presents a research model of factors that affect the intention to use and actual use of LBS whose market is expected to grow rapidly, and tested it by conducting a questionnaire survey of 330 users. The results of data analysis showed that service customization, service quality, and personal innovativeness have a positive effect on the intention to use LBS and the intention to use LBS has a positive effect on the actual use of LBS. These results implies that LBS providers can enhance the user's intention to use LBS by offering service customization through the provision of various LBSs based on users' needs, improving information service qualities such as accuracy, timeliness, sensitivity, and reliability, and encouraging personal innovativeness. However, privacy concerns in the context of LBS are not significantly affected by service customization and personal innovativeness and privacy concerns do not significantly affect the intention to use LBS. In fact, the information related to users' location collected by LBS is less sensitive when compared with the information that is used to perform financial transactions. Therefore, such outcomes on privacy concern are revealed. In addition, the advantages of using LBS are more important than the sensitivity of privacy protection to the users who use LBS than to the users who use information systems such as electronic commerce that involves financial transactions. Therefore, LBS are recommended to be treated differently from other information systems. This study is significant in the theoretical point of contribution that it proposed factors affecting the intention to use LBS in a multi-faceted perspective, proved the proposed research model empirically, brought new insights on LBS, and broadens understanding of the intention to use and actual use of LBS. Also, the empirical results of the customization of LBS affecting the user's intention to use the LBS suggest that the provision of customized LBS services based on the usage data analysis through utilizing technologies such as artificial intelligence can enhance the user's intention to use. In a practical point of view, the results of this study are expected to help LBS providers to develop a competitive strategy for responding to LBS users effectively and lead to the LBS market grows. We expect that there will be differences in using LBSs depending on some factors such as types of LBS, whether it is free of charge or not, privacy policies related to LBS, the levels of reliability related application and technology, the frequency of use, etc. Therefore, if we can make comparative studies with those factors, it will contribute to the development of the research areas of LBS. We hope this study can inspire many researchers and initiate many great researches in LBS fields.

The Effects of Environmental Dynamism on Supply Chain Commitment in the High-tech Industry: The Roles of Flexibility and Dependence (첨단산업의 환경동태성이 공급체인의 결속에 미치는 영향: 유연성과 의존성의 역할)

  • Kim, Sang-Deok;Ji, Seong-Goo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.31-54
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    • 2007
  • The exchange between buyers and sellers in the industrial market is changing from short-term to long-term relationships. Long-term relationships are governed mainly by formal contracts or informal agreements, but many scholars are now asserting that controlling relationship by using formal contracts under environmental dynamism is inappropriate. In this case, partners will depend on each other's flexibility or interdependence. The former, flexibility, provides a general frame of reference, order, and standards against which to guide and assess appropriate behavior in dynamic and ambiguous situations, thus motivating the value-oriented performance goals shared between partners. It is based on social sacrifices, which can potentially minimize any opportunistic behaviors. The later, interdependence, means that each firm possesses a high level of dependence in an dynamic channel relationship. When interdependence is high in magnitude and symmetric, each firm enjoys a high level of power and the bonds between the firms should be reasonably strong. Strong shared power is likely to promote commitment because of the common interests, attention, and support found in such channel relationships. This study deals with environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Firms in the high-tech industry regard it as a key success factor to successfully cope with environmental changes. However, due to the lack of studies dealing with environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry, it is very difficult to find effective strategies to cope with them. This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the high-tech industry. We examined the effects of consumer, competitor, and technological dynamism on supply chain commitment. Additionally, we examined the moderating effects of flexibility and dependence of supply chains. This study was confined to the type of high-tech industry which has the characteristics of rapid technology change and short product lifecycle. Flexibility among the firms of this industry, having the characteristic of hard and fast growth, is more important here than among any other industry. Thus, a variety of environmental dynamism can affect a supply chain relationship. The industries targeted industries were electronic parts, metal product, computer, electric machine, automobile, and medical precision manufacturing industries. Data was collected as follows. During the survey, the researchers managed to obtain the list of parts suppliers of 2 companies, N and L, with an international competitiveness in the mobile phone manufacturing industry; and of the suppliers in a business relationship with S company, a semiconductor manufacturing company. They were asked to respond to the survey via telephone and e-mail. During the two month period of February-April 2006, we were able to collect data from 44 companies. The respondents were restricted to direct dealing authorities and subcontractor company (the supplier) staff with at least three months of dealing experience with a manufacture (an industrial material buyer). The measurement validation procedures included scale reliability; discriminant and convergent validity were used to validate measures. Also, the reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.70. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. We conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of our measurements. A series of chi-square difference tests were conducted so that the discriminant validity could be ensured. For each pair, we estimated two models-an unconstrained model and a constrained model-and compared the two model fits. All these tests supported discriminant validity. Also, all items loaded significantly on their respective constructs, providing support for convergent validity. We then examined composite reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The composite reliability of each construct was greater than.70. The AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the multiple regression analysis, customer dynamism had a negative effect and competitor dynamism had a positive effect on a supplier's commitment. In addition, flexibility and dependence had significant moderating effects on customer and competitor dynamism. On the other hand, all hypotheses about technological dynamism had no significant effects on commitment. In other words, technological dynamism had no direct effect on supplier's commitment and was not moderated by the flexibility and dependence of the supply chain. This study makes its contribution in the point of view that this is a rare study on environmental dynamism and supply chain commitment in the field of high-tech industry. Especially, this study verified the effects of three sectors of environmental dynamism on supplier's commitment. Also, it empirically tested how the effects were moderated by flexibility and dependence. The results showed that flexibility and interdependence had a role to strengthen supplier's commitment under environmental dynamism in high-tech industry. Thus relationship managers in high-tech industry should make supply chain relationship flexible and interdependent. The limitations of the study are as follows; First, about the research setting, the study was conducted with high-tech industry, in which the direction of the change in the power balance of supply chain dyads is usually determined by manufacturers. So we have a difficulty with generalization. We need to control the power structure between partners in a future study. Secondly, about flexibility, we treated it throughout the paper as positive, but it can also be negative, i.e. violating an agreement or moving, but in the wrong direction, etc. Therefore we need to investigate the multi-dimensionality of flexibility in future research.

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.