• 제목/요약/키워드: Most probable Point

검색결과 34건 처리시간 0.022초

크리깅 메타모델과 유전알고리즘을 이용한 신뢰도 계산 및 신뢰도기반 최적설계 (Reliability Estimation and RBDO Using Kriging Metamodel and Genetic Algorithm)

  • 조태민;이병채
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제33권11호
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    • pp.1195-1201
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    • 2009
  • In this study, effective methods for reliability estimation and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) are proposed using kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In our previous study, we proposed the accurate method for reliability estimation using two-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In this study, the possibility of applying the previously proposed method to RBDO is investigated. The efficiency and accuracy of that method were much improved than those of the first order reliability method(FORM). Finally, the effective method for RBDO is proposed and applied to numerical examples. The results are compared to the existing RBDO methods and shown to be very effective and accurate.

The hybrid uncertain neural network method for mechanical reliability analysis

  • Peng, Wensheng;Zhang, Jianguo;You, Lingfei
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.510-519
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    • 2015
  • Concerning the issue of high-dimensions, hybrid uncertainties of randomness and intervals including implicit and highly nonlinear limit state function, reliability analysis based on the hybrid uncertainty reliability mode combining with back propagation neural network (HU-BP neural network) is proposed in this paper. Random variables and interval variables are as input layer of the neural network, after the training and approximation of the neural network, the response variables are obtained through the output layer. Reliability index is calculated by solving the optimization model of the most probable point (MPP) searching in the limit state band. Two numerical cases are used to demonstrate the method proposed in this paper, and finally the method is employed to solving an engineering problem of the aerospace friction plate. For this high nonlinear, small failure probability problem with interval variables, this method could achieve a good analysis result.

신뢰성을 고려한 위상최적설계 (Topology Optimization Considering Reliability)

  • 민승재;방승현
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.468-473
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    • 2004
  • New reliability-based topology optimization method is proposed by utilizing single-loop single vector approach, which approximate searching the most probable point in the probabilistic design domain analytically, to reduce the time cost and dealing with several constraints to handle practical design requirements. To examine uncertainties in the topology design of a structure, the modulus of elasticity of the material and applied loadings are considered as probabilistic design variables. The results of design examples show that the proposed method provides efficiency curtailing the time for the optimization process and accuracy satisfying the specified reliability.

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순차적 샘플링과 크리깅 메타모델을 이용한 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 (Reliability-Based Design Optimization Using Kriging Metamodel with Sequential Sampling Technique)

  • 최규선;이갑성;최동훈
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제33권12호
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    • pp.1464-1470
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    • 2009
  • RBDO approach based on a sampling method with the Kriging metamodel and Constraint Boundary Sampling (CBS), which is sequential sampling method to generate metamodels is proposed. The major advantage of the proposed RBDO approach is that it does not require Most Probable failure Point (MPP) which is essential for First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)-based RBDO approach. The Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS), most well-known method of the sampling methods for the reliability analysis is used to assess the reliability of constraints. In addition, a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the constraints is approximated using Moving Least Square (MLS) method from empirical distribution function. It is possible to acquire a probability of failure and its analytic sensitivities by using an approximate function of the CDF for the constraints. Moreover, a concept of inactive design is adapted to improve a numerical efficiency of the proposed approach. Computational accuracy and efficiency of the proposed RBDO approach are demonstrated by numerical and engineering problems.

Sub-sea 트리 튜빙 행어(tubing hanger)의 구조 신뢰성 해석 (Structural Reliability Analysis of Subsea Tree Tubing Hanger)

  • 김현진;양영순;김성희
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.212-219
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    • 2014
  • As subsea production has been revived up, the demand of subsea equipment has also been increased. Among the equipment, subsea tree plays a major role in safety. The tubing hanger is one of the most important components in subsea tree. In this study structural reliability analysis on dual bore tubing hanger of subsea tree is performed. The target reliability which is introduced in ISO regulation is used for judging whether tubing hanger is safe or not. The considered loads are working pressure, working temperature and suspended tubing weight. Thermal-stress analysis on tubing hanger is performed and kriging model is created based on the results of FEM analysis. According to von Mises criterion, limit state equation can be estimated. Reliability analysis is performed by using level 2 method and the result is verified by that of Monte Carlo Simulation. For finding most probable failure point, enhanced HL-RF method is adopted. Because the reliability of model doesn't reach target reliability, an improvement measure should be considered. Thus, it is suggested to change the material of tubing hanger main body to AISI 4140.

고체로켓 케이스 내압파열 고장모드의 신뢰도예측 (Reliability Prediction of Failure Modes due to Pressure in Solid Rocket Case)

  • 김동성;유민영;김희성;최주호
    • 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.635-642
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 고체로켓의 임무 수행 중 연소실 내압으로 인해 발생하는 고체로켓 케이스의 3가지 고장(응력파괴, 균열파괴, 볼트 체결 부 파손) 확률을 효과적으로 예측하는 기법을 개발하였다. 전체적인 확률계산 과정은 다음과 같다: 1) 고체로켓 모터의 고장모드에 영향을 주는 설계 변수선정 및 확률분포 부여, 2) 연소해석을 통한 로켓의 최대작동압력(maximum expected operating pressure, MEOP)의 확률분포 계산, 3) 케이스의 응력과 변형 형상을 구하기 위한 유한요소해석, 4) 3가지 고장함수에 대한 신뢰도예측의 수행, 계산의 편의를 위해 유한요소모델은 축대칭으로 가정하였고 볼트 체결 부의 접촉을 고려하였다. 효율적인 신뢰도예측을 위해 FORM(first-order reliability method) 기법을 통해 MPP(most probable failure point)를 탐색한 후, LHS(latin hypercube sampling)와 반응표면기법을 적용하여 고장모드를 다항식으로 근사화하며, 중요도 추출법을 적용하여 고장확률을 계산하였다.

신뢰성 기반 최적설계의 효율성 향상을 위한 차원감소법의 적분직교점 선정 기법 (A Technique for Selecting Quadrature Points for Dimension Reduction Method to Improve Efficiency in Reliability-based Design Optimization)

  • 김하영;조현규
    • 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2024
  • 본 논문에서는 신뢰성 기반 최적설계(RBDO)에서 성능함수의 비선형성을 고려한 효율적인 차원감소법(DRM)을 제안한다. 차원감소법은 적분직교점과 가중치를 사용하여 1차 신뢰도법(FORM) 보다 더 정확하게 신뢰도를 평가하는 반면 성능함수를 추가로 해석해야하기 때문에 적분직교점의 개수가 증가하면 효율성이 저해된다. 본 논문에서는 신뢰성 기반 최적설계에서 성능함수의 비선형도를 평가하고, 비선형도에 따라 적분직교점의 수를 결정하는 기준을 제안한다. 이를 통해 신뢰성 기반 최적설계가 진행될 때 반복마다 적분직교점의 수를 조절하여 차원감소법의 정확도는 유지하면서 계산의 효율성은 개선하는 방안을 제안한다. 성능함수의 비선형도 평가는 최대가능목표점(MPTP) 탐색에 사용한 벡터 사이의 각도를 통해 이루어지며, 수치 테스트를 통해 비선형도에 따른 적절한 적분직교점의 수를 도출하였다. 2차원 수치예제를 통해 개발된 방법이 차원감소법이나 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션(MCS)의 정확도는 유지하면서 효율성이 향상된다는 것을 확인하였다.

신뢰성기반 최적설계에서 수치적 안정성과 효율성의 개선을 위해 수정된 Single Loop Single Vector 방법 (Modified Single Loop Single Vector Method for Stability and Efficiency Improvement in Reliability-Based Design Optimization)

  • 김봉재;이재옥;양영순
    • 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2005
  • SLSV(single loop single vector)방법은 신뢰성기반 최적설계(reliability-based design optimization, RBDO)에서 중첩된 반복과정을 제거함으로써 최적설계의 과도한 계산비용 문제에 대한 해결책을 제시하고 있지만, 종종 수렴하지 못하거나 잘못된 해가 얻어지는 등의 불안정성, 부정확성 문제를 가지고 있어 그 활용이 제한적이다. 본 논문에서는 수정된 HMV(hybrid mean value)방법, Inactive Design, Active MPP(most probable point) Design의 적용을 통해 SLSV방법에 있어서 안정성과 효율성을 효과적으로 개선시킬 수 있는 수정된 SLSV방법을 제안하였고 또한 다양한 예제를 통해 수정된 SLSV방법의 유용성을 검증하였다.

수용액중의 Rhodamine 6G 염료의 콘키오린 층에 대한 흡착평형 (Adsorption Equilibrium of Rhodamine 6G onto the Conchiolin Layer from Aqueous Solution)

  • 신춘환;송동익
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.1195-1201
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    • 2005
  • In order to develop a dye coloring technology on Conchiolin layer in cultured pearls, appropriate dyes were selected, their solubilities in various solvents were studied, and adsorption and desorption experiments were performed. Solubilities of several basic dyes known to suitable for the pearl coloring, i.e., Rhodamine 6G(R6), Rhodamine B(RB) and Methylene Blue(MB), in several solvents (distilled water, methanol, ethanol, and acetone) were investigated. Among these dyes, R6 was chosen as a dye for single component adsorption and desorption experiment due to the relatively good solubility in various solvents tested. Solubilities of dyes were judged to be enough to color the pearls since dye concentrations in pearl coloring are, in general, not so high. The internal surface area of the pearl layer is believed to be directly related to the dye adsorption, the single-point internal surface area of the pearl layer measured at the nitrogen relative pressure of 0.3 was found to be $0.913m^2/g$, and the BET internal surface area, $1.01m^2/g$ The most probable diameters of micropores and macropores were found to be $40{\AA}$and $5000{\AA}$ respectively, from the pore size distribution data. Adsorption isotherm was well fitted to the Langmuir isotherm model, resulting in q=$\frac{1.62C}{1+1.09C^{.}}$

Flares and Starspots : Direct Evidences for Stellar Activities bin Low-mass Stars

  • 장서원;변용익
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.49.1-49.1
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    • 2010
  • The optical lightcurves of flare events can be regarded as a direct indicator about the existence of magnetic activity in low-mass stars. Stellar flares are generated by magnetodynamic processes in the stellar interiors as on the Sun and indicate that the locally intensified active regions still exist on the photosphere. However previous photometric observations are limited to a few selected active objects because of their faintness and randomness of the flare occurrence. Based on dedicated deep (r~23), long-term (24 night) time-series monitoring of the open cluster M37 from MMT 6.5m transit survey program, we searched for flare-like transient phenomena in the 3,052 M-dwarf lightcurves with relatively high-temporal resolution (30s-90s). In order to collect all statistical significant events, we applied the change-point analysis with filtering algorithm using local statistics. We found a number of flares from 412 M-dwarf stars that are probable cluster members. Nearly half of them have periodic brightness variations with a near or distorted sinusoidal shape. With a small exception of binary cases, most of these variations appear to reflect the presence of large starspots resulting in rotational brightness modulations. We will discuss the relationship among magnetic activity indicators and dependence on spectral type.

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